Health care workers in protective suits, Wuhan China. Photo credit: China Daily / Reuters
By DJ Rippert
Sprichst du panik? Liz Specht is an biologist and engineer. She is currently the Associate Director of Science and Technology at The Good Food Institute. On Friday Dr. Specht (who holds a Ph.D. from UCSD) posted a long series of tweets regarding the spread of Coronavirus and the limitations of America’s healthcare system. You can read her tweets here.
Dr. Specht is vitally concerned about COVID-19 and the supply of hospital beds and protective masks in the U.S. She calculates that by May 8 all the hospital beds in the U.S. will be filled. That’s just over two months from now. She further believes that America’s low inventory of N-95 and surgical masks required for healthcare workers will only make matters worse. As those tending to COVID19 patients get sick we may run out of healthcare workers as well as hospital beds.
This may differentially impact Virginia. As Bacon’s Rebellion guest commentator James C Sherlock noted, Virginia has a shortage of docs and nurses. In addition, experience in Italy shows that up to 10% of cases which tested positive required mechanical ventilators as part of the treatment. Whether Virginia’s very questionable COPN practices have held down the number of hospital beds and / or mechanical ventilators is an open question. Meanwhile, as Jim Bacon notes, our state government’s reaction to COVID-19 is somewhere between “just trust us” and “what, me worry?”
Very important note — Dr. Specht is a trained biologist who certainly holds some strong opinions as to the public health severity of COVID-19 in the United States. However, she is not an epidemiologist. Other equally expert people, including some epidemiologists, do not share her pessimism. The crux of Specht’s argument is that the number of Coronavirus cases will double every six days. I have no idea whether Dr. Specht will be proven right or wrong on that count. I do know that if she is right, Virginia is in a world of trouble. Continue reading