Category Archives: Health Care

According to data published by the Virginia Department of Health (VDH) this morning, the number of new COVID-19 cases confirmed in Virginia Friday shot up to 395, up from 306 the previous day, bringing the total number of confirmed cases to 2,407. To emphasize the change in the number of new cases, I have changed the graph I update daily from displaying total cases to new cases.

Here’s the daily data roundup:

Total COVID-19 cases: 2,407, up 395 from the previous day.
Total hospitalizations: 390, up 68.
Total deaths: 52, up six.
Total tests: 21,547, up 2,547.
Percentage tests positive: 15.5%

And here, straight from the spreadsheet of John Butcher, are the current “doubling” rates for key metrics:

Case count: 3.4 days
Hospitalizations: 3.7 days
Deaths: 3.1 days

— JAB

Ask and ye shall receive. In the comments section of a recent post, Don Rippert makes an interesting observation: “The cue for a serious outbreak seems to be a rise in percent positive for those being tested. That’s why Michigan and Indiana are being watched closely right now. As I recall from the article I read once the positive percentage hits about 15% you can be assured that the sh** is about to hit the fan.”

What, then, is the trend in here in Virginia? The percentage of positive tests is running steadily higher, surpassing 15% at least twice in the past four days of data. If Don’s rule of thumb is correct, we’re near the point where the fecal matter soon will strike the rapidly revolving blade.

Any conclusion comes with caveats, mainly pertaining to the quality and consistency of the data. However, holding all other things were equal, one would expect the percentage of positives should be heading down. With access to very few tests early on, medical practitioners hewed to strict testing protocols. Only patients with symptoms most closely matching those of COVID-19 were tested. One would expect a high rate of hits. As testing kits become more readily available, they began administering somewhat more broadly — targeting front-line healthcare workers, even those who don’t show symptoms.

Duck, you  may not like what’s coming. — JAB

Today’s data update from the Virginia Department of Health shows an an accelerating increase in confirmed new COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and deaths yesterday.

Total COVID-19 cases: 2,012, up 306 over the previous day. The previously highest daily increase was 239.
Total hospitalizations: 312, up 66 from the previous day. The previously highest daily increase was 38.
Total deaths: 46, up five from the previous day.

And here are John Butcher’s latest calculations for the “doubling” rate for key metrics:

COVID-19 confirmed cases: 3.3 days
Hospitalizations: 3.7 days
Deaths: 3.0 days

The doubling rates have been holding steady for the past few days. There is no sign at the moment that the epidemic curve is flattening. If the current rate of increase holds, the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations will hit 10,000 in about 18 days, inundating Virginia’s healthcare system.

— JAB

Source: House Committee on Oversight and Reform

by James A. Bacon

Virginia has received only a fraction of the medical supplies from the Strategic National Stockpile it needs to fight the COVID-19 virus, according to documents released by the House Committee on Oversight and reform.

“The new documents we are releasing today confirm the urgent warnings we have been hearing from our nation’s governors and health care professionals for weeks — they do not have enough personal protective equipment and medical supplies, and the Administration has provided only a tiny fraction of what they desperately need,” stated Rep. Carolyn B. Mahoney, chairwoman of the committee.

“While we appreciate what we’ve received from the national stockpile, it isn’t close to enough,” Governor Ralph Northam said in a statement to the Virginia Mercury Thursday. “Virginia’s health care providers and first responders deserve basic protection, equipment and supplies. We need more, period. Virginia will continue to exhaust every option — including federal support — to get what we need on the front lines.”

As of Tuesday, the Virginia Department of Health had a total of only 78,920 N95 respirator masks available for distribution from the state stockpile, the Mercury reported, based on data obtained through a Freedom of Information Act request. Thirteen Virginia hospitals have indicated that they would have difficulty obtaining or replenishing enough personal protective equipment (PPE) to meet demand within the next three days without assistance. Continue reading →

by James C. Sherlock

Communication in this time of crisis has not been a notable strength of either Governor Ralph Northam or his cabinet. I discovered the reason why in the Governor’s press conference today: They are clueless.

The Northam administration’s online communications

The state’s official website as of today has no information about the real time activities of emergency management, about testing availability, about personal protective equipment, or about anything else that matters.

• As for the Virginia Department of Health (VDH), the last entry on the Health Commissioner’s Blog is dated October 15, 2018.
• Not a single entry in the media room discusses what the state is actually doing, only what they see happening.
• Not a word about the functioning of Virginia’s six Health Care Coalitions (HCCs).

No word either about the actions of Virginia’s Emergency Operations Center (VEOC), just that the center is conducting response operations. The situation report tells us nothing about what state officials are doing, how they are doing it or what success they may or may not be having.

The Governor’s April 1 Press Conference

Now for today’s Governor’s press conference. I must report that I am literally stunned. Continue reading →

NoVa field hospital sites identified. State officials have begun identifying sites to use for field hospitals in the event that an influx of COVID-19 patients overwhelm the capacity of Northern Virginia’s hospitals. The first phases of plans call for adding beds in existing hospitals or on hospital campuses. A third phase would establish new treatment facilities at the National Conference Center in Loudoun County, the Dulles Expo Center in Fairfax County, and the Goerge Mason University campus in the City of Fairfax, according to a briefing given yesterday to the Prince William County Board of Supervisors, as reported by WTOP News. The Northam administration has said it was examining sites with the Army Corps of Engineers, but had not publicly identified specific locations.

Thousands volunteer for medical reserve corps. Virginians can erect emergency field hospitals, but who will staff them? Health providers will be stretched to the breaking point just dealing with COVID-19 patients in regular hospitals. Perhaps members of the Virginia Medical Reserve Corps can helo. As of Tuesday morning, reports the Richmond Times-Dispatch, more than 12,300 volunteers across a variety of health professions had signed up. Of those about 8,200 are deployable, meaning they have had their credentials confirmed. Virginia’s Medical Reserve Corps, established in 2002 after 9/11, operates 27 units across the state.

Making more hand sanitizer. The Appalachian College of Pharmacy, located in Buchanan County, is using its compounding lab to produce hand sanitizer. The college delivered its first shipment last week to Food City for distribution to Food City pharmacies, reports the Bluefield Daily Telegraph. “We told them we’ll take all you can make,” said Food City CEO Steve Smith. “We’ve been out of hand sanitizer for days and have tried different avenues to get it without success.” (Hat tip: Mary Trigiani.)