Category Archives: Economic development

Chowing on Chickpeas

Sabra hummus. Yummmm.

There sits in my refrigerator a near-empty container of Sabra red-pepper hummus. The Bacon family generally avoids pre-meal snacks and hors d’oeuvres, but when we do indulge, we put hummus on our crackers, not the usual cream cheese-based dips. Hummus, which uses chick peaks as the main ingredient, is high in protein. Not only does it have less fat than cream cheese, it’s the good kind of fat.

I wouldn’t go so far as to say that hummus hors d’oeuvres are healthy — you have to consider the salt, sugar and fat loaded into the crackers. But it’s definitely less unhealthy than cheese dip. And it tastes just as good. Maybe better. (Lots of garlic. Mmmm.)

That’s a round-about preamble to the news story of the day, the announcement by Sabra Dipping Co. that it will invest $86 million to double the size of its Chesterfield County manufacturing facility. Sabra will ramp up production of its hummus spread from 6,000 tons per month to 10,000 tons, reports the Richmond Times-Dispatch. The company also has just opened an 18,000-square-foot R&D facility on the property.

What’s more, Sabra is launching a major initiative to grow chickpeas in Virginia as a way to diversify the source of its chickpea supply in the event of crop failures in Washington state and Idaho. Sourcing chickpeas also would lower the trans-continental shipping costs, writes the Wall Street Journal. Right now, the chickpea crop is valued at a modest $115 million a year. But that number is bound to grow as hummus continues to gain in popularity and Americans develop export markets.

Virginia offers a longer growing season for chickpeas but the summer heat and humidity makes plants vulnerable to the Ascochyta fungus blight. Sabra is sponsoring research at Virginia State University, which is trying to identify a chickpea variety suited to the climate. Virginia farmers could be growing the crop on a commercial scale within three years.

Richmonders, it’s time to embrace not only Sabra as a good corporate citizen but to start chowing down its chickpeas! Not only is hummus a healthier alternative to fat- and calorie-drenched cheese-based dips and spreads, it’s locally processed and soon will be locally grown. What’s not to love?

– JAB

GiftGate: “If I Were a Rich Man . . .!”

By Peter Galuszka

Richmond’s “Giftgate” scandal just gets worse.

On Friday, Atty. Gen. and presumed GOP gubernatorial candidate Kenneth Cuccinelli announced that he was amending his required disclosures of gifts to show that he took more goodies from Star Scientific plus previously undisclosed gifts of a $7,750 trip in 2010 to Southwest Virginia from coal giant Alpha Natural Resources of Abingdon and $795 to speak at a coal industry rally in 2012.

While the tardy disclosure is questionable, the gifts are not illegal but they would be in other states.

This, moreover, raises another tricky question. How wealthy should politicians be so they can’t be bought?

Could it be that officials  of more modest personal means such as Cuccinelli might be somehow be more vulnerable to gift-giving by individuals or corporations with a definite agenda, such as Star Scientific and Alpha Natural Resources.

Cuccinelli disclosed income of $134,000 in 2009 and $264,296 in 2005. He makes about $150,000 as the state’s top legal officer and got a $30,000 advance from Crown Publishing for a book. His disclosure was a political ploy to embarrass McAuliffe but in the wake of the gifts, it has backfired.

McDonnell’s net worth is about $1.8 million.

Compare that to two Democrats. Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe, no stranger to big money fundraising, earned $8.2 million in 2011 from his various business interests. U.S. Sen. Mark Warner was once said to be worth about $200 million, much of it from investments he made in the cell phone industry and high-tech financing a couple of decades ago.

It’s tough to say that politics should be only for rich men. But the curious thing about these two Republicans, supposedly the silk stocking, country club party, is that McDonnell and Cuccinelli “are actually very much middle class guys,” Richmond political analyst Bob Holsworth recently told me.

Nothing wrong with that, of course, but the fact is that both Cuccinelli and McDonnell have spent most of their careers in low-paying public service jobs. McAuliffe and Warner, both accused of being anti-capitalist regulators by the GOP, actually made millions in the free market system that they supposedly disdain.

Painting them as such might be a plus to rank and file voters, but in a strange way, it can put them at risk. Why, for instance, did Cuccinelli feel compelled to accept $13,000 in gifts from Jonnie Williams, the head of troubled Star Scientific, which is the object of shareholder lawyers and a federal probe? These included the use of vacation homes and expensive foreign cars. One vacation cost $3,000 and was a gift. Even an underpaid journalist like myself has paid $2,000 for a week at a beach house with my family. Why couldn’t he have rented his own place?

Williams is involved with a disputed state tax assessment of $860,000 and Cucccinelli has had to recuse himself as he has from another court case involving the fired executive chef who is seeking information that McDonnell’s family used publicly-funded goods like energy drinks, state-owned beach cottages and liquor for themselves.

The Alpha and coal business is rather obvious. Alpha took over Richmond-based Massey Energy in 2011 after the firm’s noxious corporate culture is said to have led to the deaths of 29 miners in West Virginia making it the worst deep mine disaster in the U.S. in 40 years. Massey’s CEO Don Blankenship was famous for bankrolling West Virginia judicial officials and other candidates. He went so far as  to vacation with the State Supreme Court Judge on the French Riviera.

Alpha has a better safety record than Massey but is taking its lumps, having lost $2 billion in one quarter last year. Coal in general has been in the tank thanks to cheap natural gas and some new federal environmental rules plus a slow-down in Asia’s demand for coal to make steel.

Naturally, the beleaguered coal industry wants to beat back what it considers onerous regulations.  It was a major bankroller of Mitt Romney’s campaign last year and Alpha was a big participant. Cuccinelli is perfect because he denies that carbon dioxide is responsible for climate change – a pet issue for King Coal. So, he was instrumental in the right wing’s counter attacks on the “War On Coal” last election.

What bothers me is not that Cuccinelli would flack for them but why did it cost $7,750 for him and his parents, paid for by Alpha, to visit Southwest Virginia. Last year I published a book on Massey and had made many trips to Southwest Virginia, including Alpha’s headquarters and a mine. I paid for it myself and I think it cost me maybe $200 in gas and a night or two at a two star motel at maybe $110 a night. I ate at Hardees where a steak biscuit is about $1.50 although I did splurge at a fancy Abingdon restaurant that had knock-out martinis with blue cheese filled olives.

But it didn’t cost me $7,750 or even one third of that.

Would McAuliffe or Warner have accepted a such largesse? I am sure they have moved and grooved with the rich and famous for years but both men are in a position to say “no thanks.”

And that is what Cuccinelli and McDonnell should have said, even if Virginia has hardly any rules on gifts.

How to Create 79,000 Jobs without Really Trying

Norfolk unemployment office. Photo credit: Virginian-Pilot.

by James A. Bacon

In the previous post I discussed Virginia’s sluggish economic performance and the power of institutional inertia to discourage fresh thinking about economic development. One exception is a recent report published by the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy (TJI).

Calling upon the resources of Chmura Economics & Analytics and the Beacon Hill Institute, TJI President Michael Thompson asked if it were possible to restructure Virginia’s tax code to spur private investment and job creation.

In “Tax Restructuring in Virginia: A Revenue Neutral Path for Improving Our Economy,” Thompson’s team explored nine scenarios for eliminating three hated business taxes — the Business Professional Occupation Licensing (BPOL) tax, the Machine and Tool (M&T) tax and the Merchants Capital (MC) tax — and replacing lost revenue by means of a restructured sales tax.

According to the report, the optimum scenario would increase employment by 79,000 jobs over the baseline projection, bolster investment by $287 million, and pump up real state Gross Domestic Product by $8.4 billion. The key features:

  • Eliminate the BPOL, M&T and MC taxes
  • Eliminate the lowest bracket in the personal income tax ($0 to $3,000), and cut other income tax brackets by 10%
  • Expand sales tax to cover all exempt sectors of the service economy, except health care.

We can debate the particulars. How good are Thompson’s data and how valid is his economic simulation model? Can the results be improved upon by considering other scenarios. And, my main concern, would we be creating problems for ourselves by taking state tax revenues (the sales and income taxes) to reimburse local governments for lost BPOL, M&T and MC revenues? Governor Jim Gilmore did something very similar in partially phasing out the car tax. How did that work out?

Those issues are all worthy of discussion. But let’s look at the big picture. What other initiatives can you name that (a) are tax neutral and (b) have the potential to create 79,000 jobs over the next five years? If TJI’s idea creates only half the jobs forecast by its economic model, this idea is well worth pursuing.

Virginia’s Big Metros Lagged in 2012 Job Creation

Winded

by James A. Bacon

Has Virginia already felt the impact of the slowdown in federal spending? That would seem to be the obvious conclusion from 2012 metropolitan-area job data released last month by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and highlighted by Aaron M. Renn on the New Geography blog.

After years and years of growing more rapidly than the United States economy, the Washington metropolitan area scored 10th from bottom among the nation’s 51 largest regions in 2012. The number of jobs increased by 32,200, a 1.07% increase for the year.

Hampton Roads, did even worse, scoring 7th from bottom — putting it in the same company as rust-belt basket cases like St. Louis, Rochester, Providence, Buffalo and Philadelphia. The metro area created only 6,100 jobs, an increase of 0.83%. Like the Washington region, Hampton Roads is heavily dependent upon military spending. The difference is, it lacks the dynamic technology sector that, one might hope, can take up the slack.

The Richmond region scored in the muddled middle, creating 12,500 jobs, for a 0.83% increase. The virtue of Richmond’s economy is that it is diversified. The downside of Richmond’s economy is that it lacks a star industry cluster to lead job growth.

Bacon’s bottom line: Two key points:

First: These job numbers reinforce the fears that I have expressed repeatedly that job and population growth in Northern Virginia is veering from trend lines and that long-term forecasts that form the basis of future transportation demand are, at best, highly speculative, and at worst, terribly flawed.

Second: How much more data do we need to be persuaded that Virginia is losing its economic mojo? Yes, I’m delighted that Richmond’s Hamilton Beach Brands will be shipping small appliances to China, that WhiteWave Foods Company is investing $70 million to expand operations in Rockingham County, and that Orbital Sciences Corporation has successfully launched its new Antares rocket from Wallop’s Island, to mention three bits of good news from the past week. But that’s anecdotal froth upon the economic wave. The underlying numbers are grim.

Virginia is pursuing economic development pretty much the same way it did in 1986 when I first started covering the subject for Virginia Business magazine. Our economic development professionals have gotten smarter, more sophisticated and more tech savvy but they’re still doing essentially the same thing they always have — recruiting corporate investment, marketing to tourists and promoting sales of agricultural products.

Every gubernatorial administration is required by law to update the state’s strategic economic development plan. Every administration consults the same “stakeholders” (vested interests), and every plan comes out looking largely the same as the one before. It’s time to wake up, people!

A North-South Highway for Northern Virginia

The McDonnell administration has unveiled its vision for a north-south highway and other improvements to Virginia’s newest Corridor of Statewide Significance.

Source: Office of Intermodal Policy and Investment. (Click map for more legible image.)

by James A. Bacon

The McDonnell administration has unveiled a recommended alignment for a limited access highway to be built as the backbone of the North-South Corridor of Statewide Significance in Northern Virginia. The 45-mile circumferential highway would start at Interstate 95 in the south, swing west of Dulles International Airport and terminate at Route 7 in the north.

The route would following existing highways, roads and projects contained in the comprehensive plans of Prince William County and Loudoun County. In a brief presentation of the proposal yesterday to the Commonwealth Transportation Board, Deputy Secretary of Transportation David Tyeryar justified the project on the grounds that it would help Dulles airport compete in the air cargo arena and would serve an area on the fringe of metropolitan Washington whose population is expected to grow by hundreds of thousands over the next three decades.

Although Tyeryar noted that the highway would provide an estimated $3.9 million a year in annual travel-time savings, he did not tell the CTB what the facility was estimated to cost. No one on the CTB asked. However, answering questions after the presentation, Dironna Moore Belton, policy program manager for the Office of Intermodal Planning and Investment, gave a rough estimate of $1 billion to be financed by a yet-to-be-determined mix of local, state and private dollars.

The presentation inspired a sharp rebuke from Stewart Schwartz, executive director of the Coalition for Smarter Growth. “I thought it was a very thin presentation. It failed in the most basic way by not even providing a price or a detailed explanation of what they were proposing.” The cost of the circumferential highway does not include a connector to Dulles airport or proposed upgrades to Rt. 606 running along the western edge of the airport, which could add another $500 million, he said. Tyeryar provided no Return on Investment analysis, Schwartz added, nor, given Northern Virginia’s many transportation needs, did he address alternative uses of public funds.

No money has been allocated to the project, Tyeryar said. The McDonnell administration has simply laid out its vision for the corridor. Before anything gets built, the eight segments of the proposed highway need to be studied in significantly more detail and gain approvals from local governments and Northern Virginia’s regional transportation planning organization. Segments will be constructed piece-meal as money becomes available. No action from the CTB was needed yesterday.

The project has been a top priority for Gary Garczynski, Northern Virginia district representative for the CTB. “This is a blueprint for the future,” he said. “We still have challenges. We’re asking for acceptance of this study to be continued.”

In making his presentation, Tyeryar summarized the findings of the just-released “Northern Virginia North-South Corridor of Statewide Significance Corridor Master Plan.” The deputy transportation secretary, a former Prince William County budget director, has acted as the McDonnell administration’s point man on the project through a series of public presentations and official public hearings over the past several months.

The Master Plan provides a detailed description of the McDonnell administration’s vision for the corridor, which the CTB had designated as a Corridor of Statewide Significance in 2011. Key elements include: Read more.

Correction: An earlier draft of this article stated that David Tyeryar estimated that the travel-time savings from the highway would be $3.9 billion. The correct figure is $3.9 million.

McAuliffe: Can a Schmoozer Transform?

By Peter Galuszka

On Easter Sunday, I was driving in a cold rain to Charlottesville for a family event. My cell phone started beeping with messages from Democratic gubernatorial hopeful Terry McAuliffe.

He said he was on his way to his own family brunch but wanted to tap me for $5. I got similar messages from two other staffers.

Why bother me at Easter? Political analyst Larry Sabato wondered the same thing. In a tweet that day he complained about finding “11 obnoxious messages for $$$. Now I know the answer to the age old Q; Is nothing sacred?”

And that may be McAuliffe’s biggest problem as he faces arch-conservative Ken Cuccinelli in the off-year governor’s race. In my profile of him in Style Weekly, I note that McAuliffe is trying to rein in an expansive personality that has made him a top political schmoozer and fundraiser for Democrats from Jimmy Carter to Bill and Hillary Clinton.

A decades’ long political operative who has never been in elected office, he can be bombastic and smooth, as his recent dealings with GreenTech Automotive shows. He flirted with Virginia for a hybrid  car plant before going to Mississippi. He has been accused of somehow using the car plant to win special visas for foreign workers and maybe misleading the Virginia Economic Development Partnership about his intentions in the Old Dominion.

Meanwhile, he must overcome some of his misunderstandings of traditional Virginia thinking. However, it’s probably a good thing that he’s going to skip the Shad Planking in Wakefield tonight with its Confederate flags where Cuccinelli will be keynote speaker.

While polls are about 50-50 in the race, McAuliffe’s fundraising prowess has shown brightly. In the first quarter, he raised more than $5 million — more than double the take of Cuccinelli, who has hamstrung by not being allowed raise money during the General Assembly session because of his position as Attorney General. Read on…

(Also, here as a Q&A with McAuliffe)

Virginia Beach, Richmond Well Positioned for Foreign Investment

Image credit: fDi magazine.

Virginia Beach and Richmond both scored in the Top 10 of Foreign Direct Investment magazine’s ranking of “best mid-sized American cities” for attracting foreign investment. By “American” cities, the magazine refers to cities in both North and South America.

Canadian cities totally pwned the mid-sized city rankings, with London, Hamilton, Quebec City, Surrey and Brampton all seizing spots in the top 10. The two Virginia cities shared the spotlight with only two other U.S. cities, New Orleans and Albuquerque.

The magazine collected data for 422 cities in five categories: economic potential, human resources, cost-effectiveness, infrastructure and business friendliness. A sixth category covered fDi strategy.

New York won the top spot for large cities, followed by Sao Paulo…. and then Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver. (Man, we need some of that Canadian secret sauce!)

In the sub-category rankings, Virginia Beach snagged a No. 9 position for economic potential and Norfolk a No. 3 slot for infrastructure.

Mayor Dwight Jones had the following to say: “I have always believed that Richmond’s best days are still to come and have made it a priority to invest in assets to continue to attract the best and brightest.”

– JAB

Kotkin Swings… He Misses.

Yes, Houston is a great city. But not entirely for the reasons Kotkin suggests.

by James A. Bacon

Joel Kotkin is at it again. The urban geographer whose life mission seems to be debunking smart growth and creative-class worship, makes many well-founded observations… and manages to totally miss the point.

In a column just published in The Daily Beast, Kotkin argues that the economic trend-setters of the United States are still located, for the most part, in the Sun Belt:

While Gotham and the Windy City have experienced modest growth and significant net domestic out-migration, burgeoning if often disdained urban regions such as Houston, Dallas-Ft. Worth, Charlotte, and Oklahoma City have expanded rapidly. These low-density, car-dominated, heavily suburbanized areas with small central cores likely represent the next wave of great American cities.

One big advantage of these “aspirational cities” is that they have a lower cost of living, particularly of housing, which makes them attractive to creative-class professionals who might have higher priorities than finding hip, cool places to live.

Many of these metropolitan areas are also leading the nation in growing their number of well-educated arrivals. Houston, Charlotte, Raleigh, Las Vegas, Nashville, and San Antonio, for example, experienced increases in the number of college-educated residents of nearly 40 percent or more over the decade, roughly twice the level of growth as in “brain centers” such as Boston, San Francisco, San Jose (Silicon Valley), or Chicago. Atlanta, Houston, and Dallas each have added about 300,000 college grads in the past decade, more than greater Boston’s pickup of 240,000 or San Francisco’s 211,000.

All very good. What Kotkin fails to consider is that there are better explanations for the growth disparities he sees than smart growth. The bigger question is whether regions are located in states that hew to a “blue state” or “red state” governance model. (I recommend that he read the American Legislative Exchange Council’s “2013: Jobs, Innovation, and Opportunity in the States,” for a discussion of the key economic variables.)

New York, Boston and San Francisco are hampered economically not by their compact, cost-efficient human settlement patterns, but by their proclivity for big, activist government, high taxes, public employee unions, draconian environmental policies and a welter of other anti-business policies. The regions that Kotkin touts as paragons of growth tend to have less activist government, lower taxes and a lighter hand of regulation. Those are the factors that have contributed to their economic dynamism, not sprawl.

I will venture a prediction: Sun Belt cities will pay for their profligate growth. The average age of their building stock and infrastructure is much younger than  that of the older, legacy cities. They have not had to grapple with depreciation and replacement costs of the sprawling roads, utilities and other systems they have built heedless of maintenance and replacement costs. When those costs come due, it will be interesting to see how well they hold the line on taxes. Let’s see how fast they grow then.

Smart growth is not the problem. Smart growth in the hands of political progressives working under blue-state governance models is the problem. Forward-looking conservatives need to work on applying smart growth according to small-government, free-market principles. Then they will enjoy the best of both worlds.

The Case for Incentives Still Lacking

by James A. Bacon

Virginia approved nearly 3,400 economic development incentive grants totaling $718 million over the past 10 years, according to a new report, “Review of State Economic Development Incentive Grants,” published by the Joint Legislative Audit and Review Commission. The projects benefiting from those grants created more than 68,000 jobs.

“Incentive grants appear to have a positive but small impact on the site selection decisions of businesses relative to other considerations such as transportation and labor costs,” concludes the report. The economic literature suggests that economic-development grants are decisive in only 10% of site selection locations but not for the other 90%. The jobs and economic gains stemming from the latter projects cannot properly be attributed to the grants.

“However, several factors suggest that certain Virginia grant programs may sway the decisions of businesses to locate or expand in the State more frequently than is indicated in the research literature,” the report hedges. “Business representatives, site selection consultants, and State and local economic development staff indicated to JLARC staff that incentive grants are ‘expected,” and a common means for states to build and maintain a ‘business friendly’ reputation, which businesses value.”

Heh. Here’s another way Virginia could build and maintain a business-friendly reputation. Take that $718 million (averaging $72 million a year) and use it to LOWER THE FRIGGIN’ BUSINESS TAXES!

That idea did not seem to occur to JLARC. The authors did not ask what economic benefit might have accrued from scrapping the grants and returning a like sum to taxpayers — business taxpayers, if your goal is to make Virginia more “business friendly.”

Assuming state incentives went to projects creating 68,000 jobs but nine in ten jobs would have been created anyway, that’s a net gain of 6,800 jobs . Alternatively, had Virginia businesses been taxed $718 million less, how many jobs would they have created? That’s the question JLARC should have asked. Without an answer, the report is incomplete.

I’ll grant you this: Virginia does a better job than many states in administering economic-development grants, particularly in insisting that corporations meet investment and job-creation targets in order to qualify for the aid. And economic developers have been pretty good about spreading the wealth — only seven businesses have received awards greater than $20 million. (They were smart enough, too, to see through Terry McAuliffe’s ill-conceived green car venture.) On the other hand, economic-development incentives are a zero-sum game. Our gain is some other state’s loss. And their gain might well be our loss. The JLARC report notwithstanding, I still find incentives a dubious proposition.

Don’t Get Cocky, Kid, You’re Small Potatoes

Tokyo: the world’s largest metropolis, at 37.2 million population.

It is a truism that in today’s globally competitive economy the critical unit of economic growth and development is the metropolitan region. The industry profile and workforce characteristics of a region exert as much influence, if not more, on its prosperity than national economic policies.

With that in mind, it is interesting to compare how metro regions around the world stack up in population size. A larger population creates a larger labor pool with more diverse skills, making the region, all other things being equal, more attractive to corporate investment.

So, how do Virginia’s largest regions stack up internationally? According to “Demographia’s World Urban Areas,” three Virginia regions make the list of world’s largest.

No. 72     Washington (4,825,000 inhabitants)
No. 318   Hampton Roads (1,466 inhabitants)
No. 466  Richmond (980,000 inhabitants)

It’s humbling to think that there are 465 metro regions in the world larger than my home town. The vast majority of the world’s inhabitants are no more likely to be aware of our existence than we are likely to have heard of  Zhuzhou, China (No. 464) or Aguascalientes, Mexico (No. 472). We are a small player indeed on the world stage.

– JAB