Bacon's Rebellion

by James A. Bacon

A recent Columbia University study generated headlines after concluding that 55% of deaths reported as of May 3 could have been avoided if stricter social-distancing controls had been implemented nationally just one week earlier.

Responding to that story, President Trump created a mini-furor by engaging in his usual ad hominem attacks. Rather than addressing the underlying facts and logic in the study, he called Columbia a “liberal, disgraceful institution” — as if labeling the institution ideologically did anything to rebut the rigor of the study.

A nuanced critic of the study might have questioned the validity of using epidemiological models to run counter-factual simulations. The outcome of models like the one used by the Columbia authors depends upon an array of critical assumptions — often debatable — about the relationship between different variables. As the old saying goes, Garbage In, Garbage Out.

Whatever the merits of the particular study in question, the flap revealed that the U.S. academic and media establishments now accept counter-factual simulations as legitimate news. Perhaps someone could build a model to answer a different counter-factual question: Given the fact that most COVID-19 deaths have involved elderly patients with one or more coexisting conditions, how many would have died anyway? Continue reading →

by James A. Bacon

As Governor Ralph Northam ponders the details of a statewide order mandating Virginians to wear face masks, he might do well to consider the latest COVID-19 data in his deliberations.

A record number of test results, 11,609, were incorporated into the Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 database yesterday and published on the VDH dashboard this morning. (Only one day, May 1, saw a higher number, and that reflected a major change in reporting methodology.) This is the first time that Virginia has met Northam’s professed goal of a minimum of 10,000 tests daily.

Only 495 new COVID-19 cases were confirmed, the lowest number in more than a month. The percentage of positive tests fell to 4.3%. That was the lowest since March 18, before COVID-19 had reached epidemic proportions. Northam has cited evidence of declining positive-test ratios as an indicator for loosening his Vulcan Death Grip on Virginia’s economy.

But Northam appears to be committed to issuing a mask-wearing edict “especially for individuals going into businesses.” The only thing holding him back is that some issues remain unresolved. One is the “equity” implications of a mandate. Said he: “We want to make sure everyone has access to a mask.” In other words, he wants to ensure that members of poor and minority communities are not prevented by their inability to obtain masks from entering places of business. Another issue, he said, “We also want to talk about how we enforce that.” Continue reading →

Virginia’s long-term care facilities have come under close scrutiny during the COVID-19 epidemic, understandably so, considering that roughly 60% of all COVID-19 deaths in Virginia have afflicted patients living in long-term care facilities. The nursing home industry has remained remarkably quiet throughout the crisis. But yesterday I received a communication from Amy Hewett, vice president of strategy and communications for the Virginia Health Care Association.

Bacon’s Rebellion has been pretty tough on the nursing home industry and its regulators, so I thought it fair and reasonable reasonable to re-publish Hewett’s communication. Here, after deleting prefatory material, is what she had to say. — JAB

As you know, the coronavirus is of a particularly voracious nature. Even with the best infection control, it can spread at nursing homes and assisted living centers, which require high-touch care such as feeding, bathing and dressing residents – especially given the frequency of asymptomatic spread. The people we care for are high risk – not just now, but always. Public health policy must reorient itself to our community’s needs so we can do everything possible to keep our residents safe.

That said, confirmed coronavirus cases account for just 6% of all residents in our care. Long-term care facilities are taking significant steps to prevent further spread. Despite the challenges we face, most residents and staff members who are diagnosed with the virus make a full recovery – many without hospitalization. With the proper resources, we can ensure even more positive outcomes.

I wanted to pass along a few items that I thought would be of interest to you: Continue reading →

Highlights from the Virginia Department of Health and Virginia Hospital and Healthcare COVID-19 databases based on yesterday’s reporting:

Mortality statistics
COVID-19 deaths: 37
Nursing home deaths: 13
Percentage of deaths occurring long-term care settings: 35%

Testing data
Tests administered: 6,553
% positive: 14.7%

COVID-19 Hospitalization data
New hospitalizations: 52
New discharges: 185
Total COVID-19 patients hospitalized: 1,459 (lowest in 19 days)

— JAB