Monthly Archives: July 2012

In Praise of Tar Heels

By Peter Galuszka

Virginia is my state of choice although I am hardly a Virginian and have long had a hate-love affair with the Old Dominion. It is a beautiful state and well located, but there can be a certain problem with some of the people, especially in the capital area, who may think a bit more highly of themselves than they should be entitled to.

Another state that is much like Virginia in beauty is its southern neighbor, the Tar Heel state of North Carolina, which has long been called a “vale of humility between two mountains of conceit.” One mountain, of course, is Virginia.

My family and I have lived off an on for years in N.C. and one of my takeaways is just how wonderful and unassuming the people area, with the possible exception of John Edwards.

So, it is with sadness that I note the passing of two prominent Tar Heels who went far to promote the the talent and down-home friendliness common to the area.

The first is Doc Watson, the blind pioneer of finger-style guitar playing who died May 29 at age 89. I first heard Watson’s music back in the 1960s and have heard him perform several times. Nothing was too complicated musically for the man from Deep Gap and he defined the movement towards roots, bluegrass and Old Time country music.

Yet Watson could come up with some powerful blues as well and tempered all with his humble personality, which seemed in marked contrast to Bill Monroe, the patrician-acting, so-called “founder” of bluegrass.

The second man was Andy Griffith who died a few days ago. He was native of Mount Airy, which he helped recreate in the fictional Mayberry of his hit TV shows which I watched religiously as a boy. The cornball humor went over the top, but Andy was always there handing out wise and steady advice that was eminently marketable for decades to come.

Griffith was a serious actor who had performed on Broadway and had his start in The Lost Colony on the Outer Banks, where he had retired and died of a heart attack.

To be sure, there are many parts of Virginia that have some of the same values that both men projected. But they can never be Tar Heels.

Can Technology Save Us from Dysfunctional Educational Institutions?

Image credit: Wall Street Journal

by James A. Bacon

Tech journalist Michael S. Malone makes the case in today’s Wall Street Journal that technologies nearing commercialization will revitalize the American economy. Just as fracking technology transformed the energy sector, nanotechnology, big data, three-dimensional printing and online education will create a new wave of abundance, he argues in “The Sources of the Next American Boom.”

Malone displays the same optimistic spirit of other tech utopians like Howard Kurzweil of “The Singularity Is Near” fame. Scientific knowledge is advancing so rapidly that material prosperity is almost guaranteed. Our biggest problem will be figuring out how to deal with all the affluence.

While I eagerly await the development of everything from nano-materials with super properties to 3D-printers that can turn my garage into a home manufacturing center — “honey, I’m running low on manganese, could you pick up a cartridge at the store?” — I also worry that technological change is hurtling forward so rapidly that it is outpacing the ability of human institutions to adapt.

As Alvin and Heidi Toffler observed in “Revolutionary Wealth,” different types of institutions evolve at different rates of speed. Businesses operating in a competitive, free-market environment adapt with the most alacrity, followed by nongovernmental, grass roots organizations. Labor unions, government bureaucracies and regulatory agencies lag behind, while schools, legal systems and governance structures remain embedded in institutional amber.

Paying little heed to this “desynchronization of change,” Malone writes optimistically about a resolution to the current affordability crisis in higher education:

The discrepancy between the cost of university tuition and the return on that investment for most students grows every year. As students, increasingly priced out of traditional education, begin to abandon the college path, colleges and universities will have no choice but to pursue them—with ever-greater numbers of virtual courses (and eventually degrees)—on laptops, smartphones and tablets. This shift is already beginning to transform higher education and bring in a host of new competitors. Its potential to raise educational achievements in K-12—where rising costs and diminishing results are even more out of control—could be even more revolutionary.

That is precisely the argument that I have been making, lo, these many years. And it is precisely the challenge, I have contended, that faces the University of Virginia, all other public institutions of higher education in the commonwealth and, indeed, higher education generally. However, we have seen the reaction at UVa to an effort — an ill-executed effort, I will concede — by the Board of Visitors to accelerate the rate of change in a venerable institution, and we have seen how powerful constituencies within the university defended their prerogatives on the grounds that top-down reform cannot be imposed upon the collegial, consensus-driven culture of academia.

But change waits upon no man. The college-affordability crisis is intensifying. While UVa held down its tuition and fee increases to 3.5% this year, the lowest in years, it still outpaced the rate of inflation and wage growth. (Other Virginia colleges jacked up rates even more aggressively.) All the while Moore’s Law is still driving down the cost of computing power and telecommunications, the quality of personal online interaction is improving and entrepreneurs are learning what works and what doesn’t. It is only a matter of time before the face-to-face interaction of the residential campus is replicated in holographic form.

Thus, two things are entirely predictable: First, that online entrepreneurs will gain educational market share. At present, the share of online educational enterprises is so small that rapid growth does not yet threaten established institutions, especially ones with strong brand names like UVa. But in time, the threat will grow. Thus, the second predictable thing is that powerful established institutions will utilize their massive resources and political clout to thwart the competition, just as teacher unions (and quasi-unions like the Virginia Educational Association) use their influence to thwart disruptive change to K-12 schools. Expect a legislative and regulatory backlash against career colleges, online schools and other upstarts on the grounds of protecting the “public.”

Even in our increasingly centralized political system, in which the federal leviathan intrudes into every sphere of human existence, including those functions once relegated to the states, regulation and oversight of K-12 and higher education remain resides primarily with the states. Virginia’s political class, like that of every state, eventually will be forced to deal with the educational crisis. Will our political class act to open up competition and technology, or will it seek to stymie the forces of change to protect the vested interests? One path leads to renewal, the other to stagnation. Which will it be?

Cheaper Yes. But How Effective?

Skanska/Branch’s new design for the Charlottesville Bypass shaves tens of millions of dollars off construction costs. But will it move traffic as efficiently as the original design?

by James A. Bacon

Foes of the controversial Charlottesville Bypass could well adopt the famous motto of John Paul Jones when his ship, The Bonhomme Richard, was losing the battle with the HMS Serapis: “I have not yet begun to fight!”

Continued opposition to the Bypass might seem futile now that the Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) has identified Skanska/Branch Highways as the low bidder for constructing the highway and the Commonwealth Transportation Board has given final approval for the allocation of funds. But Bypass foes are not prepared to concede defeat. Indeed, like Jones, who closed with the Serapis to engage in hand-to-hand combat, Charlottesville area activists are poring over Skanska’s conceptual design for the bypass to see if it will deliver as promised.

Meanwhile, VDOT has not yet scheduled an informational hearing to solicit input from the public, the Federal Highway Administration has not yet completed a review of the Environmental Impact Assessment, and VDOT has not yet formally awarded the contract to Skanska. Indeed, according to an email from Culpeper transportation district chief Jim Utterback to Albemarle County Supervisor Dennis Rooker, VDOT was not expecting to meet with Skanska until late July. “There are a number of contract items and initial steps moving forward to be reviewed and worked out with them.”

With the goal of influencing the federal EIA findings anti-bypass activists are scrutinizing Skanska’s roadway design, which seemingly solves several issues that would have driven the cost of the project considerably higher than the official $244 million estimate. By reducing the footprint of the southern and northern termini, Skanska’s design saves roughly $36 million in right-of-way acquisition costs. Running the highway at a higher elevation over Stillhouse Mountain also cuts excavation and disposal costs.

But will the new design deliver on the promised travel time savings? after all, the justification of the project is to bypass a congested strip of U.S. 29 north of Charlottesville in order to facilitate inter-city commerce along what the state has designated a “corridor of statewide significance.” The original bypass plans would have supported a 60 mile-per-hour speed limit. Therefore, under normal conditions the trip would take roughly six minutes, 30 seconds, shaving about two minutes and 40 seconds from the average length of each trip on the existing U.S. 29. (See “The Road to Wealth Destruction” to see how the time savings were calculated.)

The new design adds two stoplights and may lower the average travel speed, potentially cutting into the hoped-for time savings. Jeff Werner, transportation and land use planner for the Piedmont Environmental Council, has focused on three key areas: the southern terminus, the elevation over Stillhouse Mountain, and the northern terminus.

Click here for larger image.

Southern terminus. The interchange requires two new stoplights. Northbound traffic will follow the route indicated by the green arrows: exiting U.S. 250 to the right, halting at a stoplight, turning left, crossing U.S. 250 at an 11.4% grade, encountering another stoplight, and then proceeding onto the bypass.

Southbound traffic will have an unobstructed exit from the bypass onto U.S. 250 heading south, but will encounter the same two stoplights when entering Leonard Sandridge Drive leading tothe University of Virginia or heading east to downtown Charlottesville.

The sequencing of the stoplights has not yet been made public. But assuming average cycle times of one minute each and, optimistically, no major back-up during rush hour, it the lights could add a minute or so to northbound trips and some southbound trips.

Stillhouse Mountain. One of the great challenges designing the bypass is crossing Stillhouse Mountain located near the southern terminus. The original plan called for massive rock excavacation and removal in order to keep the grade moderate. Skanska’s engineering solution will reduce excavcation and removal costs by elevating the highway. The incline will be very steep, says Werner.

Roughly one in ten vehicles using the bypass is expected to be a truck. If northbound trucks start from a full stop at the second stoplight, they will labor for hundreds of yards up a steep incline to reach a posted 60 miles-per-hour speed limit. This design change has the potential to add significant travel time for tractor-trailers and the cars caught behind them. Continue reading.

Quieter Roads Coming to a Neighborhood Near You

If you live near a noisy road or highway, help is on the way: The Virginia Department of Transportation is studying quiet pavement technologies. And according to an interim report to the General Assembly, new pavement surfaces deployed in demonstration projects near Williamsburg and in Leesburg “were “noticeably quieter” on average.

If the noise reductions are of sufficient magnitude, VDOT may be able to avoid the expense of building concrete sound barriers in some instances.

When vehicles travel faster than 35 miles per hour, the interaction of tires and pavement generates considerable noise. Decibels vary according to the texture, porosity and stiffness of the pavement. Open-graded or porous asphalt is known to have the optimum combination of properties that can deliver a quiet pavement. VDOT has avoided using that class of materials because the pavement was more prone to catastrophic failure. However, recent advances have addressed durability issues in asphalt, and the concrete pavement industry has developed diamond grinding and grooving techniques to provide lower-noise alternatives for finishing concrete pavements.

The Quiet Pavement Task Force selected three asphalt surfaces materials and two mechanically applied finishes to concrete pavement. Five pilot tests were performed to verify the lower noise levels and to see what impact the surfaces would have on durability, safety (skid resistance) and ride quality under a variety of weather conditions.

A final report will be issued June 30, 2013.

— JAB

4th of July Ruminations upon the Income Gap

by James A. Bacon

America, we are being reminded on this 4th of July, was a lot more equal in the time of John Adams and Benjamin Franklin than it is today. Historical research suggests that the Top 1% accounted for 8.5% of the proto-nation’s income in 1776 versus 20% today — a difference that is lamented by the left and the right alike.

There are many possible explanations of why the wealth gap has increased. One is that the income tax rate isn’t nearly high enough. But that won’t fly because the embryonic United States had no income tax at all. Indeed, insofar as the young nation relied primarily upon custom duties for revenue, the tax system was highly regressive.

Another, more plausible reason is that Americans had more equal access to what Karl Marx referred to as the “means of production.” In an overwhelmingly agrarian society, most Americans made a living by farming. And, other than slaves, most Americans owned their own land. Land wasn’t handed out for free — the Homestead Act with its 40 acres and a mule came later. There was no Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Department of Agriculture or Department of Housing and Urban Development. Yet land surveyed, platted, marketed and financed by land speculators was cheap enough that nearly everyone could buy a farm.

Indeed, it is no accident that income equality existed in the absence of large, overweening government. It’s an iron rule of human nature: Special interests seek to wield the power of government to advance their interests over those of the general public (always for the most altruistic sounding of reasons). As the U.S. government expanded its authority over more of the economy, more of the economy became subject to rent seeking. Government today is a massive wealth-redistribution machine. Every element of society — the poor, the rich, the middle-class — gets a piece of the action. But some — think Wall Street bankers and other beneficiaries of crony capitalism — get a bigger share than others.

Finally, I would take note of a little-remarked phenomenon: the decline of civil society. As Alexis de Tocqueville famously observed, in the absence of government, Americans joined all manner of associations and organizations to accomplish collectively what they could not individually. In the early 19th century, Americans had the most vibrant civil society in the world. The steady expansion of government has suffocated civil society — and nowhere is the  paucity more evident than in communities (inner cities, poor rural counties) that depend most upon government transfer payments for income.

As government income-redistribution schemes have displaced not only civil society but in many instances the family, the poor have become the most sociologically atomized, the most devoid of civic institutions and, consequently, the most helpless and hapless, citizens in American history.

A recent New York Times article quotes Thomas Jefferson as writing in 1814:

We have no paupers. The great mass of our population is of laborers; our rich, who can live without labor, either manual or professional, being few, and of moderate wealth. Most of the laboring class possess property, cultivate their own lands, have families, and from the demand for their labor are enabled to exact from the rich and the competent such prices as enable them to be fed abundantly, clothed above mere decency, to labor moderately and raise their families.

Remarkable. America had no welfare, yet it had no paupers. Today, government redistributes hundreds of billions of dollars every year to the poor, yet the number of unsheltered homeless people numbers 250,000. Work has become less demanding physically than when Americans chopped down trees and plowed their fields, yet the number of Americans living upon disability payments now numbers 8.7 million.

Our material condition has advanced greatly in the past 237 years but the spirit of self reliance and mutual aid, subsumed by the leviathan state, has sorely eroded. We are not the people we once were. And with that cheerful thought, I bid you to enjoy your 4th of July holiday!

No Stopping Rail-to-Dulles Now

Graphic credit: Washington Post. (Click for larger image.)

by James A. Bacon

The final obstacle to construction of Phase 2 of the Rail-to-Dulles project fell yesterday when the Loudoun County Board of Supervisors voted to fund its estimated $270 million share of the project. Now all four funding partners — Loudoun, Fairfax County, the commonwealth of Virginia and the Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority (MWAA) — have affirmed their participation in a plan brokered last year to complete the METRO extension.

The last remaining question is how much the project will cost. Will the winning bid exceed the estimated $2.8 billion price tag, in which case overruns will be charged to the tab of Dulles Toll Road users in the form of higher tolls? Or will the low bid fall under the benchmark, thus providing relief for toll road users? An earlier decision by the MWAA board to scrap preferences for union Project Labor Agreements will encourage open-shop companies to submit bids, thus improving the odds of a favorable outcome.

The Rail-to-Dulles project is both a necessity for Northern Virginia and an abomination. On the positive side, the Silver Line will help integrate Tysons Corner and the Dulles Corridor with the region’s urban core. Rail service will trigger re-development of disconnected, low-density human settlement patterns into walkable, mixed use communities around 11 METRO stations. Coupled with services such as ZipCar, Uber and Avego and others yet undreamed of, the Silver Line will liberate thousands of Northern Virginians from their automobile-dependent lifestyles.

However, the political process of allocating costs for constructing the rail line was an orgy of rent-seeking and cost shifting. Like so many other transportation projects, rail and highway alike, there is no pretense that those who use and benefit from the $6 billion Rail-to-Dulles project will pay for it. The financing of Phase 2 is particularly egregious, diverting hundreds of millions of dollars from commuters on the Dulles Toll Road. DTR commuters could well wind up paying more per trip to support the Silver Line than Silver Line passengers will pay in fares.

Meanwhile, land owners fortunate enough (or canny enough) to have property located near METRO stations will make a double killing. First, their land will gain value thanks to proximity to the stations. Second, Fairfax County and Loudoun Counties will reward them with increased density. Fairfax landowners will pay a small share of the $6 billion tab through a special tax district. Remarkably, landowners on top of METRO stations will pay at the same rate as landowners a half mile away, even though they enjoy the lion’s share of the benefit. (Loudoun supervisors are considering a special tax district for Phase 2 but have not approved it.) Thus, the project can be seen as a massive redistribution scheme in which politically connected winners use their clout to extract wealth from the politically powerless.

Meanwhile, it’s not at all clear that the $6 billion investment will do anything to relieve regional congestion. While the rail line will take some commuters off Northern Virginia roads, high tolls could drive other commuters off the Dulles Toll Road onto secondary roads, making driving conditions on them all the more unbearable. Second, Fairfax County has approved so much added density to Tysons Corner — creating far more traffic at full build-out than the METRO can handle — that someone will have to find another $4-5 billion to upgrade road and highway access to the business district.

While individual winners and losers can be clearly identified, the dynamics are so complex that it is impossible to say whether Rail-to-Dulles will be a net gain or loss for Northern Virginia as a whole. Not only is the answer unknowable now, it may well be unknowable 2o years from now. The results will be too diffuse and too complex to disentangle. It would be nice to think that we’ve learned some lessons from the years-long controversy, but I’m not confident that we’ve learned anything at all. People will continue believing whatever the hell they want to believe.

Hotter Than. . .

By Peter Galuszka

…The Fourth of July. Sorry that I have to spell it out, but there are a number of climate change deniers at this blog, including the Big Blogger himself, so it may be necessary to make things simple.

In case, you haven’t noticed, this Independence Day marks a period of some extreme weather. Record setting heat since last week touched off an exceptionally strong series of thunderstorms that left several dead and one million people in the Washington area without power. Some still don’t have power. When some had emergencies and tried to call 911, their Verizon service didn’t work because the power outages had fried some software.

Still don’t “get it?”  According to Eugene Robinson of The Washington Post, quoting NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, nine of the 10 warmest years on record have occurred since 2000. The level of heat-trapping carbon dioxide is now more than 35 percent greater than it was since 1880, with most of it happening since 1960.

Quick quiz, students. What kind of activity has happened since 1880? No, not the death of the dinosaurs. Not an asteroid. But yes, intensive human activity and lots of burning of fossil fuel such as oil and coal. In orders words, the heyday of the Industrial Age.

Many scientists accept this. In fact, most believe that human activity has spiked the level of carbon dioxide and that was the basis of the 1997 Kyoto Accords to cut down on carbon-based emissions.

For those of you looking for summer reading, you might explore this very topic.

One book, by former Post managing editor and correspondent Steve Coll is “Private Empire: ExxonMobil and American Power” in which he details the amazing clout of this money machine so dynamic it makes about $5 million every hour. And guess who has funded research to attack the scientific basis of those researchers who explore the relationship among mankind, carbon emissions and climate change? Oil and coal firms, that’s who.

As Coll said in an interview: “ . . ExxonMobil took a really radical approach to the challenge of Kyoto, in my judgment. They funded, sometimes surreptitiously, free market groups and communications firms to challenge the science of global warming itself – not the economic bargain or the political bargain of Kyoto, but the science, to raise doubt about whether global warming was occurring at all, and if it was, whether it was a serious risk. They really polluted the public atmosphere in Washington through this funding campaign.”

Don’t like Coll? Well, here’s another summer reading book that really cuts to the chase. It is “The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars. Dispatches from the Front Lines,” by Michael E. Mann, our favorite climatologist.

Mann, now at Penn State, was a climatologist at the University of Virginia who supported, as many scientists, the “hockey stick” data of temperature change, linking industrial activity with the greater emissions and warming. Mann got tangled in the tempest-in-a-teapot storm of the University of East Anglia emails (of which he was cleared of any wrongdoing) and then endured two years of harassment by Virginia’s hard right wing attorney general, Kenneth Cuccinelli, who tried and failed to get all of Mann’s emails while he was at U.Va. It was such a brazen witch hunt, just about every reputable scientific group in the advanced world denounced Cuccinelli’s assault on academic freedom.

Mann describes the entire, awful experience of being the victim of a smear campaign that is linked to the same conservative groups with Big Fossil money who tried to discredit him and others. The supposed fraud never was quite revealed involving the emails purloined from East Anglia, a British university that had long been a leader in climatology and had been associated with the late Hubert Lamb, a research pioneer in the area.

The controversy was touched off, Mann writes, when RealClimate, a website and blog started by climatologists, was hacked on Nov. 17, 2009 by someone using an anonymous server located in Turkey. Many of the emails were re-pieced together to make them particularly damning and then released to sympathetic members of the global media. Just about every right wing outfit, including some on this blog, there is started waving the emails as evidence of a new Watergate.

In the end, the character assassination went nowhere. Cuccinelli’s “civil investigative demands” for the U.Va. emails were thrown out of court. Even Virginia’s traditional right wing media weren’t biting. As Mann writes: “Numerous editorial boards across Virginia, including some of the state’s most conservative papers that had endorsed Cuccinelli’s run for office, also denounced Cuccinelli’s attack.”

Well, you get the idea. If you are looking for good summer reads, consider these books. That is, if you can stand the heat.

Freedom’s New Frontier: Basement Apartments

A basement apartment in Alexandria.

by James A. Bacon

Let’s see… On the one hand, the economy is still in the tank, wages are stagnating and the cost of housing in desirable locations (near jobs) remains out of reach for many Americans. On the other, millions of homeowners, many of them childless, would love to monetize the spare square footage in their houses to help pay the mortgage.

Could there be an opportunity for homeowners knocking around their half-empty houses to lease a basement, a garage apartment or even a bedroom to singles looking for cheap rent? Yes, there is. But local governments often step between willing seller and willing buyer.

Why would they do that? Because homeowners in single-family subdivisions, terrified that rentals might lower property values, thwart any measure that might deviate from the one-house-per-household purity of  neighborhoods zoned for single-family dwellings.

However, hard times spur people to re-think old practices. Montgomery County, Md., is investigating a set of changes to current policy that would make it easier for homeowners to rent out accessory apartments, widely called “granny flats,” and even backyard cottages. Writes Dan Reed in Greater Greater Washington:

The new policy would allow accessory units in most of the county’s single-family zones. Homeowners wouldn’t need a hearing, but they’d still need to get approval from building officials to create an apartment, register the unit with the Department of Housing and Community Affairs, apply for a rental license, and renew the license each year.

Planners say allowing accessory apartments will help financially strapped homeowners cover their mortgages while providing additional housing choices for renters, particularly young adults, who are priced out of many MoCo neighborhoods. Accessory dwellings are already allowed “by right” in a variety of communities, from cities like Portland to suburban Lexington, Massachusetts to rural Fauquier County, Virginia. …

Good for Montgomery County! Every city and county in Virginia should follow the lead of its neighbor across the Potomac by reviewing and updating its code. Foes worry that more residents will mean more congestion. But, as Reed points out, household sizes have shrunk over the past few decades. Carving out an apartment in a four-bedroom house isn’t changing the neighborhood but bringing it back to the occupancy level it was designed for.

NIMBYs also worry that rentals will drive down the value of  neighborhood houses, including their own. But I question that premise. Properties that generate rental income should sell for more than comparable houses without. Furthermore, homeowners who pocket a rent check every month are in a better position to fend off foreclosures, which devastate nearby property values, and pay for maintenance and upkeep, which supports property values.

Finally, there’s a moral argument to make.

A couple in my neighborhood recently built a house with a granny flat for the wife’s parents. Grandpa and grandma provide built-in babysitters when mom and dad have to work late or want to go out. Likewise, the grandparents know they will have someone to look after them. Isn’t this kind of multi-generational family something our society should be encouraging as a welcome antidote to outsourcing child- and elder-care to strangers?

Or take the case of the elderly widow who wants to stay in the house where she lived most of her life? Why shouldn’t she be able to rent a room to a young single man or woman who, as part of the arrangement, can help with yard work, housekeeping or errands?

More freedom usually works better than less freedom. We should try it for a change.

Medicaid Expansion a Dangerous Choice for Virginia

The Hindenburg -- what happens to unsustainable bloat

by James A. Bacon

Thanks to the Supreme Court ruling on Obamacare, Virginia now faces the choice of whether or not to expand its Medicaid program. We are sure to hear many arguments along the line of Judy Solomon with the Center for Budget Priorities that Medicaid expansion is a “good deal for states.” She makes three key points:

  • The Congressional Budget Office estimates (assuming all states implement the expansion) that the federal government will bear nearly 93 percent of the costs of the Medicaid expansion over its first nine years.
  • The additional cost to the states represents only a 2.8 percent increase in what states would have spent on Medicaid from 2014 to 2022 in the absence of health reform.
  • Moreover, this 2.8 percent figure overstates the net impact on state budgets because it does not reflect the savings that state and local governments will realize in health-care costs for the uninsured.

The state cost share of extending Medicaid to the near-poor will escalate to 10% by 2020, with the result that the increase in state spending will be considerably higher than 2.8% after that date, but it still will be a bargain compared to the nearly 50% share Virginia pays for the existing Medicaid population. The program will pump billions of dollars into Virginia’s economy and, by providing coverage for people whose treatment was often written off as uncompensated care, it will reduce pressure on hospitals and other providers to shift costs to privately insured patients.

Thus, from a pragmatic, short-term perspective, the argument for participating in the Medicaid expansion is a powerful one. We can expect people to assert that only people who are consumed with hatred for President Obama could possibly oppose it.

But the choice is not a simple one at all. Virginians must ask: How long will the federal government be able to maintain its commitment? Given the current fiscal trajectory of the federal government — $15.9 trillion in debt, a tepid economic recovery made even more wobbly by a weakening global economy, and trillion-dollar deficits as far as the eye can see — federal entitlements are unsustainable. If Congress doesn’t move first to pare back entitlements, federal spending will collapse when capital markets stop funding deficit spending.

When federal spending is curtailed, either voluntarily or involuntarily, how likely is it that the government can sustain its promised Medicaid payments? What are the odds that Uncle Sam will stick the states with a bigger share of the bill? And once the new entitlement has been created, how willing will the General Assembly be to cut off hundreds of thousands of Virginians from the program? It is far easier to say, “No,” before the program is ramped up than after the near-poor, some of whom have private insurance, has become dependent upon government largesse.

As the nation hurtles toward Boomergeddon, it is folly to increase the size and scope of the entitlement state. President Obama and his philosophical allies may have won the Medicaid-expansion battle at the national level, but that is no reason to replicate the fiscal lunacy at the state level. The only sustainable way to expand health care coverage is to drive down the cost of delivery, and the only sustainable way to drive down the cost of delivery is to aggressively pursue gains in provider productivity and patient outcomes.

We need a thorough vetting of all the issues. I can see the short-term advantages of expanding Medicaid but I fear the long-term consequences.

Housecleaning on State Mandates

Local governments now free to set up red light cameras without state oversight!

by James A. Bacon

Yesterday, July 1, marked the day when bills enacted into law earlier this year went  into effect. Among other changes in the way we conduct the affairs of local government, cities and counties are no longer required to obtain permission from the Virginia Department of Transportation to install red light cameras!

And that’s only one of fourteen measures  designed to reduce state burdens on local government that are found in HB 1295. Another measure eliminates the requirement for teachers to engage in civic training in order to renew their licenses. Local courts can no longer require localities to construct new courthouses. And no longer must schools provide the estimated per-pupil cost of public education to students’ parents.

In a press release announcing the measures, Governor Bob McDonnell noted that he signed several other bills relating to local government. With one exception, it doesn’t add up to much. The difficult job of running a city or county in Virginia has not become significantly easier as a result. Consider the legislation more like housecleaning — wiping the dust off the top of the refrigerator, knocking down the cobwebs in the porch. Still, the measures, which originated from the efforts of a five-member task force to identify state mandates for repeal, are part of the necessary care and tending of state and local government.

No, I'm not talking about the General Assembly here. Local governments no longer need VDOT permission to install signs like this on highways.

In a reminder of the absurdities that arise from a Dillon Rule state in which localities can exercise no power that the state does not grant them, HB914 gives counties and towns authority, “pursuant to an agreement with the Commissioner of Highways,” to install “Children at play” signs on highways within their boundaries.

We can all breathe easier now.

The one truly substantive bill in the lot made the incorporation of Urban Development Areas (UDAs) in high-growth counties optional rather than mandatory, diluting one of the signature pieces of growth-management legislation enacted when Tim Kaine was governor. The idea behind UDAs was to concentrate growth in areas that could be efficiently served with utilities, public services and roads. The legislation specifically called for “new urbanism and traditional-neighborhood design” — pedestrian-friendly road design, interconnection of streets, preservation of natural areas, mixed-use neighborhoods, reduction of front and side setbacks and minimal densities.

After Kaine left office, the home building industry pushed back on this and street-connectivity legislation. Virginia has yet to devise an effective strategy for managing the costs associated with growth. Until we figure it out, rezoning petitions for development projects will continue to be contentious and inefficient human settlement patterns will push up the cost of local government.