by James C. Sherlock
This is an ode to modeling and the inevitable contretemps in the comment section that followed Steve Haner’s article yesterday.
1.Time Magazine, April 8,1977. Two great modeling stories:
Perhaps we did all 51.
2. Cover of Science News March 1. 1975
By Steve Haner
Nothing beats being able to expose the sleight of hand behind one climate alarmism claim by using the data from another climate alarmism claim, with both from the same source: the Richmond Times-Dispatch. It also provides a teaching moment about some of the advocates’ favorite ways to deceive.
Concerned you might not get the message that “climate change” is responsible for making you miserable with allergies, the newspaper offered up two stories on the same topic this month. First, we had this, followed by a second story today. The basic premise that an early spring means that allergies hit earlier is correct; and then the claim is early springs are getting, in a word, earlier. Finally, predictions follow that worse is yet to come.
But two different charts are used t0 illustrate the issue, basically counting the number of days between the last spring and first fall frost. One covers a long time period (more honest) and the second uses an intentionally short time period, resulting in a knowing exaggeration intended to deceive. Continue reading
Cover for the 2023 update of Appalachian Power Company’s plan to comply with the Virginia Clean Economy Act (VCEA) in coming decades.
by Steve Haner
Appalachian Power Company (APCO), serving Western Virginia, has now filed its annual update on Virginia Clean Economy Act compliance, including long term bill impact estimates. As the State Corporation Commission begins its review process, here are some highlights:
Posted in Energy, Environment, General Assembly, Regulation, Utilities
Tagged APCO, Stephen D. Haner, VCEA
by Steve Haner
Customer cost projections for compliance with the Virginia Clean Economy Act have increased again from the first such estimates made in 2020. The bill for 1,000 kilowatt hours of electricity from Dominion Energy Virginia to power a home for a month may rise almost $100, or 83%, by 2035.
Dominion residential customers were already paying $288 (21%) more per year for 1,000 kilowatt hours per month by December 2022, compared to May 2020, just before VCEA became law. That will cost another $547 annually by 2030 and $878 more by 2035. Cost projections are even higher for commercial and industrial customers.
After all the hyped discussion coming out of the 2023 General Assembly that regulatory changes it made will “lower electricity bills,” it is important to face reality. Ignore claims from any incumbents who say they voted to “lower bills.” VCEA compliance is still going to be very expensive, and nothing just passed changes any of that.
The most recent figures are very similar and slightly higher than those reported in 2020. They were filed last year by the utility as part of the annual VCEA compliance plan, outlining its planned conversion from fossil fuel generation to massive amounts of wind and solar power over the next two decades. Continue reading
Posted in Energy, Environment, Regulation, Utilities
Tagged Dominion, Stephen D. Haner, VCEA
Courtesy of the BBC
by James C. Sherlock
A headline from the home page of Save the Children:
“Climate Change Is a Grave Threat to Children’s Survival.”
Climate change is thus not a “challenge.” Not a threat to children’s happiness. But rather a threat to their “survival.”
That is what children are being taught in many Virginia public school classrooms. Kids, being sponges, have learned that lesson, and are understandably severely depressed about it.
Parents and the Board of Education, take note. That cannot be allowed to continue.
For years, studies have shown the existence of psychological distress about climate change that has dimensions within feelings, emotions, cognition and behavior. That stress has been demonstrated to disproportionately affect young people.
The largest and most international study of climate anxiety in young people was peer-reviewed and posted in The Lancet in December 2021.
Regardless of one’s personal feelings about climate change, no caring adult would want, as revealed in that study, children feeling “very or extremely worried” (46% of children in the United States) or, worse, negatively affected in their ability to function (26% of children in the United States).
None would want near half or more than half of children reporting feeling “sad, anxious, angry, powerless, helpless and guilty” and “betrayed” about anything, much less a phenomenon that is measurable as a current event with which we are dealing but arguably is overstated by progressives as a future prospect.
Climate change can, and should, be taught to children. But it must be done without terrorizing them. That cannot be too much to ask.
Scaring children to turn them into political activists is child abuse per se.
It must stop. Continue reading
Whether Dominion is building the solar farm or just buying its output makes a huge difference in cost.
by Steve Haner
In preparing for the latest round of new additions to its solar generation assets, Dominion Energy Virginia rejected eight privately- developed projects which were substantially cheaper than the projects it wanted to build on its own with ratepayer money. Just how much more expensive the company-owned projects will be is not clear, but the higher costs will be locked in for decades.
It is the 2020 Virginia Clean Economy Act which is driving the massive solar buildout, and one part of the statute is being read one way by the utility and another way by most of the other stakeholders. Dominion believes the law requires it to provide a fixed 35% of the new renewable electricity from third-party providers under long-term power purchase agreements (PPAs). It claims the law dictates that it must own 65% of the generation assets directly.
Just about every other party to the most recent application for new solar believes that 35% is a floor, a “no less than” target, and a higher percentage could be from PPAs. Entities taking that position include the Office of the Attorney General, environmental activists, and even large electricity users such as Walmart. The issue dominates final arguments on the application filed this week at the State Corporation Commission.
What is the solar price differential? As with far too many of these disputes, most of the key financial information is confidential, available only to case participants who have filed a promise to maintain secrecy. But in its final brief, the staff for Attorney General Jason Miyares (R) provides some dramatic comparisons. Continue reading
Posted in Energy, Environment, General Assembly, Regulation, Utilities
Tagged Dominion, Stephen D. Haner, VCEA
With the March 8 RGGI results, Virginia power producers have now paid $590 million in carbon taxes. Click for larger view.
by Steve Haner
Since Virginia joined the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) compact at the start of 2021, according to data reported by the U.S. Energy Information Agency, the amount of carbon dioxide emitted to provide electricity to customers in the state has grown. Despite two years of RGGI caps and taxes, total CO2 emissions did not shrink, but grew by 3.7 million tons.
That is because the emissions total includes tracking all power producers providing electrons to the state, which is not the same as emissions from power producers located within the state. Virginia’s membership in RGGI is having the exact opposite effect from what its adherents claim it does because, as many predicted, it has forced Virginia to import far more electricity than it used to.
During the two-year period, electricity consumption within the state grew to 130 million megawatt hours, up 11%. Electricity imports grew from 14 million megawatt hours in 2020 to more than 39 million MWH in 2022, up 280%. RGGI has simply driven power production from fossil fuels used by Virginia to other states. As it has for the other RGGI member states.
These conclusions come from EIA data compiled by David Stevenson, director of the Caesar Rodney Institute in Delaware, and long a skeptic on the benefits of RGGI in this region. He added them to the growing list of public comments on the Virginia Air Pollution Control Board’s pending proposal to take Virginia out of RGGI at the end of 2023. More details and citations from Stevenson are contained in a longer discussion which you can read here; and in a table he created, which is reproduced below. Continue reading
by Jon Baliles
Jack Jacobs at Richmond Biz Sense has an update about the ongoing fallout from the collapse of the Enrichmond Foundation last summer. All of the small organizations that used Enrichmond as a fiduciary lost access to their money (which may be gone for good; stay tuned) and other things like insurance coverage.
While there are efforts underway to transfer two historically Black cemeteries formerly under Enrichmond’s purview to the city, there has not been any statement, hint, clue, concern, or any sign of emotion uttered by the Mayor about when or if the city will help restore the funding of these small groups that do a lot of valuable work to help the City and save staff time.
Since no one at City Hall seems to be interested in helping, Richmonders are doing what they do best — they are doing it themselves (aka DIY).
For example, the group RVA Clean Sweep counts nearly 1,500 people who support it by going around the city picking up trash. They lost their insurance coverage and about $3,000 when Enrichmond folded. Have they quit trying to help clean up the city? Nope.
They held fewer cleanups and told volunteers to be extra careful as they were volunteering without insurance, but they still kept cleaning and sweeping. But no insurance means they were not able to apply for grants or hold as many cleanups as they would like, according to RVA Clean Sweep Director Amy Robins.
But they still held cleanups because they wanted their volunteers to stay engaged. “Robins feared that a prolonged hiatus on activity would cause volunteers to drift away from the cause of cleaning up litter in the city,” wrote Jacobs.
Continue reading
Available: Lovely Main Street office space, with views.
by Steve Haner
What the 2023 General Assembly didn’t pass is also an important Virginia energy policy story, starting with failure on its part to fill the two open seats on the crucial State Corporation Commission. This follows its failure last year to fill one open seat on the three-judge panel.
As reported yesterday, advocates for restored SCC authority over utility rates had more success this year than in a long time, largely because Governor Glenn Youngkin (R) was among them. The bills awaiting his signature may not mean much if the Commission itself is barely functioning. A string of major cases for 2023 was created by these new bills, with just one commissioner and perhaps some interim substitute judges to hear them. Continue reading
Posted in Energy, Environment, General Assembly, Regulation, Utilities
Tagged Stephen D. Haner
by James A. Bacon
Old global warmist spin: as temperatures rise, millions will die.
New global warmist spin: OK, we’ll admit that rising temperatures have resulted in fewer overall deaths due to the decline in cold temperatures, which kill more people than hot temperatures. But rich developed-world countries in northern climes will benefit the most from rising temperatures while poor developing countries closer to the equator will suffer the most.
Washington Post writer Harry Stevens acknowledges that a peer-reviewed paper recently published in Lancet Planetary Health found that the number of people dying from cold is declining faster than the number of people dying from heat is increasing.
Oh, no, what’s a climate hysteric to do? There is no upside to warmer temperatures — none!!! Continue reading
Courtesy Petersburg Virginia website
by James C. Sherlock
While all of the attention in the state press has been on Petersburg’s proposed casino, the estimable Bill Atkinson of the Petersburg Progress-Index provided insight into other Petersburg requests to the General Assembly for budget amendments.
Badly needed infrastructure projects and a tourism initiative are each tied to the health of both the Appomattox River and the citizens of Petersburg. Continue reading
by Joe Fitzgerald
Those aren’t wood chips or bark in the cow pasture.
David Foster Wallace tells the story of two young fish swimming along when an older, wiser fish swims past and asks, “How’s the water?” One of the young fish looks at the other and asks, “What’s water?”
Absurdity is the water that proponents of the Bluestone Town Center (BTC) are swimming in. Like the young fish, they’ve been in it long enough and deeply enough that they don’t know that’s what it is.
Consider this scenario. A city council member who serves as the council’s representative to the planning commission listens to a long recommendation from the planning staff. She then makes a motion to more or less accept the recommendation. Four weeks later, she asks the planning staff what their recommendation meant.
Yes, this really happened. So did the argument that building apartments in a cow pasture would preserve farmland.
Continue reading
by Dr. Scott Armistead
Physician burnout is a major issue in the U.S., receiving attention in medical education, medical specialties and at various government levels. Moral injury, in my professional and teaching experience, is a significant and growing challenge to physician wellness. Moral injury happens when one’s personal convictions are unwelcomed and one is pressured to think, be silent, speak, act or not act in a way that compromises one’s conscience.
I graduated from the VCU School of Medicine (formerly Medical College of Virginia) in 1991, trained in family medicine and served in a mission hospital in Asia for 16 years. In 2015, I transitioned to a Virginia university practice and became heavily involved in the lives of medical students.
In the time that had passed since I was a medical student, I found the environment of medicine and medical education had significantly changed. One area of change was the emergence of the “provider of services model.” “Provider,” a relatively new term at the time, is now commonplace. Continue reading
Photo credit: Department of Wildlife Resources, by way of WJHL
Virginia wildlife officials have been working for several years on reintroducing elk to Southwestern Virginia. In a sign that the effort is working, elk have been spotted in the Breaks Interstate Park, a joint Virginia-Kentucky state park, for the first time since the 1800s, reports WJHL.
For two years now, park officials have endeavored to make the Breaks habitat more welcoming by removing invasive species and planting native grasses. However, the elk have not responded as one might hope. It seems they are drawn to the nearby Willowbrook Golf Course, where they find enticing food on the fairway. It’s not clear what that food might be but, according to WJHL, park leadership plans to “draw the elk away” from the golf course to the park where visitors can see them.
The states currently in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative CO2 emissions compact.
by Steve Haner
The on again, off again, direct tax on Dominion Energy Virginia bills to pay for the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative (RGGI) may be on again. If you feel like you are watching a shell game and just cannot find the pea, that is intentional.
In its sales pitch for its latest effort to create a more favorable regulatory environment, Dominion Energy Virginia is touting its proposal to take several of its existing stand-alone rate adjustment charges (RACs) and roll them into its base rates. The claim is that will save ratepayers $350 million. Continue reading
Posted in Energy, Environment, General Assembly, Regulation, Taxes, Utilities
Tagged Dominion, RGGI, Stephen D. Haner
