by James A. Bacon
Wise King Ralph, in his wisdom, announced yesterday that he would delay implementation of the Phase 3 rollback of emergency economic-lockdown measures. He reached that decision even though Virginia’s COVID-19 metrics show that the epidemic is receding rapidly. Unfortunately, despite declaring previously that he would be guided by those very same metrics, Wise King Ralph did not share his thinking with the populace, nor did the fawning court media deem the contradiction worthy of notice in today’s new coverage.
Here’s all he had to say: “I want to have more time to see how the numbers look before we make changes, especially as we see surges in other parts of our country.”
For the edification of Bacon’s Rebellion readers, however, I am publishing the the metrics, published on the Virginia Department of Health (VDH) COVID-19 dashboard, said to be “statewide key measures.”
The graph above shows the seven-day moving average of total confirmed COVID-19 cases. The seven-day average smooths out the blips caused by random daily volatility. And the trend since late May has been steadily downward.
This graph shows hospitalization data. The seven-day moving average of hospitalized COVID-19 patients is moving steadily lower. The number of patients in the ICU and on ventilators, measures of how acute the cases are, also are trending steadily lower.
Finally, the seven-day moving average of the percentage of COVID-19 tests confirming the presence of the virus is heading steadily lower.
The VDH dashboard does not track COVID-19-related deaths, which would seem to be the ultimate indicator. If both hospitalizations and deaths are declining — as they are — does it really matter if the virus is spreading in the population? As docs and hospitals get better and better at treating the virus, its impact becomes hard to distinguish from that of a nasty flu virus.
It is becoming increasingly evident that an appropriate set of policies at this point would include:
- Focusing state resources on controlling local outbreaks, especially in long-term care settings which still account for 57% of all COVID-19 deaths in Virginia.
- Maintaining restrictions on large gatherings (excluding left-wing protests and riots, of course) that could act as super-spreader events.
- Encouraging employers and places of commerce to enact common-sense sanitary and social-distancing precautions.
- Encouraging individuals to continue wearing masks and self-isolating as they deem appropriate.
Please, Wise King Ralph, your subjects implore you to let them return to their jobs and routine daily activities.
