Media headlines are focusing on the fact that three more patients died of the COVID-19 virus in Virginia yesterday. But Virginia Department of Health data reported only 38 new cases and six new hospitalizations. The numbers represent a reversal of what had been an exponential rate of increase in confirmed cases. I don’t want to make too much of one day’s data, but this actually looks like good news. Perhaps Virginia’s social-distancing measures are working.
Here’s another potential sign of improvement. Testing kits for COVID-19 in Virginia became far more readily available beginning March 17 when the number of tests jumped to 539 from 81 the previous day. By March 19, 645 Virginians were tested. But since then, the number of tests has slid — to only 360 yesterday.
Why the diminishing number of tests? Is there a shortage of testing kits? That would seem to fly against evidence of increasing availability, especially among private labs and hospitals like the University of Virginia, which have developed their own tests. Are fewer people meeting the criteria for tests? If so, could that be a sign that the virus is not spreading as rapidly?
— JAB
