For what it’s worth, the number of new COVID-19 cases reported by the Virginia Department of Health this morning was 453, about the same level as it was two weeks ago. The official total now stands at 8,990. But with scarcity of testing supplies and delays in reporting, that figure isn’t worth much. As much as I like the idea that the spread of the virus has leveled off and we can get back to pre-COVID business as normal, I don’t put any credence in those numbers.
Instead, I look at the harder data — new hospitalizations (78 yesterday) and new deaths (23). Those numbers suggest that the disease spread faster last week than in the previous week, as seen in the chart above, although the rate of increase in the spread appears to be decelerating.
It may be premature to start loosening the social-distancing restrictions, but it’s not too soon to start thinking about how to go about it. I’ll have more thoughts on that soon.
— JAB
