Will Northam’s COVID Crackdown on Hampton Roads Work?

Number of COVID-19 cases By Date of Symptom Onset: Hampton Roads. Graph credit: Virginia Department of Health

by James A. Bacon

Yesterday Governor Ralph Northam blamed the recent rise in confirmed COVID-19 cases in Virginia upon noncompliance with his May face-covering order. In a Tuesday news briefing, he announced that the state will step up enforcement of the order.

Northam singled out the spread of the virus in Hampton Roads for special attention. “There is clearly substantial community spread,” he said, as reported by The Virginia Mercury. “A lot of that increase is driven by people socializing without wearing masks — especially young people. Virginia cases in the 25- to 29-year-old demographic have risen by 205% compared to early June.

The Virginia Department of Health is deploying 100 people to ramp up enforcement by, among other means, conducting unannounced inspections at businesses. “This will happen across the state, but will be particularly focused in the Hampton Roads area,” Northam said. “If you own a restaurant and a business and you’re not following the regulations, your license will be on the line.”

As we like to do at Bacon’s Rebellion, let’s take a look at the data.

The VDH’s COVID-19 dashboard now provides regional breakouts of key metrics such as confirmed cases, hospitalizations and deaths in the “Eastern” region, which is dominated by the Hampton Roads metropolitan area. The Governor is quite right to focus on Hampton Roads — the seven-day moving average of the number of confirmed and probably cases shot higher in June and July, as seen in the graph above) in contrast to the rest of the state (as seen in the graph below).

Number of Cases by Date of Symptom Onset, Central, Northern, Northwest and Southwest regions. Source: Virginia Department of Health.

(The Southwest region also saw a spike in June, although it was less pronounced, and the region’s seven-day moving average has declined markedly in the past two-three weeks.)

Given the surge in the young-adult demographic, one can speculate that the reason Hampton Roads stands out is that the region, and Virginia Beach in particular, is Virginia’s summertime party town. Stumbling drunk people are less likely to abide by mask-wearing orders.

The next question is whether the spike in COVID-19 cases represents a public health emergency that warrants a clamp-down on mask wearing. If 25- to 29-year-olds account for much of the surge, the fact that young people are less likely to develop severe symptoms would lead one to predict that the effect on hospitalizations would be modest

Let’s look at hospitalizations for the Eastern region.

Number of hospitalizations, by date of hospital admission, Eastern region.

Lo and behold, the moving, seven-day average of hospitalizations has ticked up slightly, just as it has for the rest of the state. This non-event suggests that only a small percentage of the young people getting the virus need special medical treatment.

Finally, let’s see how the increased incidence of the COVID-19 virus translated into deaths.

Number of deaths by date of death, Eastern region.

Well, well, well, the seven-day moving average of COVID-related deaths in the Eastern region remain well off its highs of early May, generally about two or three per day, many days with no deaths reported at all. There was a mini-spike on July 11, but it won’t prove to be sufficient to budge the moving average.

Bacon’s bottom line: Why do we care if healthy young people get infected by the virus as long as they are not burdening hospitals and/or dying? One can argue that it’s a good thing for young people to get infected, develop a resistance to the virus, and nudge the state closer to herd immunity.

Young people aren’t stupid. True, they rely upon social media for their “news,” which is a close cousin to stupidity, but they aren’t stupid. And, true, there are anecdotal horror stories of young people getting infected. A neighbor told me of a case he encountered in the Richmond region in which a 20-something had attended a “COVID party,” got the disease, was admitted to the hospital and died, uncomprehending to the end that the virus had done him in. Wait, what? COVID parties? Let’s concede that young people are stupid and refuse to heed the sage advice of their elders.

Let’s assume that Northam succeeds in cracking down on bars, nightclubs, restaurants, and other places where young people congregate and spread the virus. Does anyone seriously think they will cease socializing? We all know what will happen. The twenty-something crowd will move to different locales, such as private homes. Good luck regulating those.

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68 responses to “Will Northam’s COVID Crackdown on Hampton Roads Work?

  1. No, it will not work. Sending out teams of Covid Cops won’t make a difference. Soon it will be more than Hampton Roads. Here’s a great piece from the Cavalier Daily about issues at U.VA. Even with on-line classes, many students will be back on campus soon. A lot of these parties were at apartments or frat houses. Come fall, it really takes off again. Got my stash for the next lockdown…..masks, TP, soap. Odd what you still can’t find (Old Bay seasoning??).


    Northam did NOT blame new outbreaks on workplaces (other than bars), but his administration is pushing forward with its first-in-the-nation COVID workplace standards, and it was made clear in a story in today’s Virginia Mercury that no safe harbor will be allowed merely by meeting the CDC guidelines. The folks in Virginia are smarter than the CDC! Right…..


  2. The best part was when Dr Northam stated that businesses should ask someone without a mask to leave, and if they dont leave call the cops so they could potentially be arrested for trespass. This from a party who lobbied to empty jails of nonviolent offenders and wouldn’t press any chargers on rioters who destroyed and burned private property and assaulted police. This guy has a huge set on him and absoluetly no sense of hypocrisy. I’m somewhat jealous of someone who can say such things with a straight face. Can you imagine any Karen having the guts to call the cops on any BIPOC not wearing a mask for trespass in today’s world? You couldn’t pay me to be a VDH employee walking into that scenario either. Sounds like a job for the social workers and restorative justice. Not to mention the stabbing and shooting in the news reportedly for upholding mask requirements….
    But Stoney’s issue with the police tape puts him right up there! I say Stoney for Gov! He’s a perfect fit.

    • If someone was arrested for trespass, it is highly doubtful she would detained in a jail. So, the Governor is not being inconsistent on that score. Furthermore, it is not up to the governor to “press charges” on rioters. That is the function and responsibility of the local police and prosecutors. Although the Richmond Commonwealth’s attorney has waived jail time for some persons arrested during the demonstrations, she has refused to drop the charges. In summary, your criticism of Northam is baseless in this circumstance.

      Currently, businesses in Virginia Beach and other places have signs up requiring people to wear shirts and shoes upon entering. If a person enters the store without wearing a shirt or shoes, the employees or owner can ask him to leave. If he refuses to leave, the owner or manager can call the cops. How is that different from wearing a mask?

      • Did Northam make the mask order mandatory? When first issued there was a gaping hole for those who had various forms of self-defined respiratory disorders. If still true, it’s hard to understand how a business owner could throw out somebody for not wearing a mask who claimed an exemption because of a respiratory disorder.

      • Doesn’t E.O. 63 still apply as to Enforcement?
        C.Enforcement The Virginia Department of Health shall have authority to enforce this Order. Any willful violation or refusal, failure, or neglect to comply with this Order, issued pursuant to § 32.1-13 of the Code of Virginia, is punishable as a Class 1 misdemeanor pursuant to § 32.1-27 of the Code of Virginia. The State Health Commissioner may also seek injunctive relief in circuit court for violation of this Order, pursuant to § 32.1-27 of the Code of Virginia. No minor shall be subject to criminal penalty for failure to wear a face covering. Adults accompanying minors should use the adult’s best judgment with respect to placing face coverings on a minor between the ages of two through nine while inside the public areas noted above. Adults accompanying minors age 10 through 18 shall use reasonable efforts to prompt the minor to wear face coverings while inside the public areas noted above.

    • Not only the shirts/shoes but smoking, and loud and obnoxious, accompanied by a dog or pet, carrying an AR-15, .. all will get you tossed out – either leave when asked or wait for the police to do the honors.

      I’m not sure where you are coming from. You seem to think you have certain “rights” and it’s wrong to take them from you or some such.

      Can you explain your philosophy or beliefs?

      • I forgot about the prohibition on smoking in restaurants, other than in designated areas.

        • That’s a Law though, “no shoes, no shirt” is not a Law and never has been at the State or Federal Level.

        • By law, violation of an emergency order is a misdemeanor.

          • Where did I bring up the Emergency Decree? No shoes, no shirt is not a Law anywhere. The belief that it has the weight of Law, is again false. Also, the “violation of an emergency order is a misdemeanor.” only last as long as someone doesn’t take it to court. Given the amount of Lawsuits pending on such matters, that isn’t going to stand.

      • “Not only the shirts/shoes but smoking, and loud and obnoxious, accompanied by a dog or pet, carrying an AR-15, .. all will get you tossed out – either leave when asked or wait for the police to do the honors.”

        Unless otherwise posted that is completely inaccurate. It’s also not a Federal or State Law, it would be up to the owner to enforce.

        Furthermore, VA is an open carry state. You can, again unless otherwise posted carry a firearm in the open anywhere deemed allowable.

    • So we’re having a special session to reimagine policing especially when it comes to nonviolent offenses… and the governor now says call the police for a nonviolent civil offense? That’s my point. Last time I checked trespass wasn’t a violent felony… hell they have said shoplifting isn’t a violent offense.
      I thought he was with restorative justice and sending noncops to handle basic nonviolent issues…. why doesn’t he send a crack squad of VDH staff or nurses to explain Covid concerns instead of feeding trespassers into the prison pipeline?
      And besides it seems awful western culture like to require shoes and a shirt…. I think that should be brought up during the special session too. I believe the schools have been told to reimagine dress codes. Not all cultures wear shirts or can afford shoes ..

  3. Does this mean all those young folks and protestors in NoVa and other urban areas are behaving – i.e. social distancing and wearing masks – only in that one region, they’re being bad?

    Apparently some feel we are okay with Virginia joining Florida and Texas and other states that are running wild on the numbers. I mean, after all, the death rate remains low even if hospitalizations are up in those other states, what’s the problem?

    I’m actually surprised that Florida and Texas seem to be freaking out about it and now locking back down and backing off of k-12 school opening.

    Very counterintuitive.

    Seems like some don’t have the courage of their claimed convictions?

    or have many of us become “virtually” from Missouri?


  4. With Gov Northam’s statements yesterday, we have an apparent departure from the Virginia Way regarding COVID.

    Until now, Virginia elected officials have claimed secrecy on explaining the who, what, why, when and where of COVID outbreaks in the state. It was claimed to be a privacy invasion as well as against state law to explain to the public who exactly was getting COVID, and why. Extremely grudgingly, after several months, like pulling teeth, we got the zip code data, partial disclosure of nursing hone data, and ethic group data. But we still have no explanation of why COVID happened the way it did here.

    Suddenly we have timely and heretofore missing causal specificity, for one outbreak: young folks in Hampton Roads grouping without adequate attention to social distancing guidelines.

    Does this welcome daylight represent a new dawn of openness and truth in Virginia? Or are the Young Adults of Hampton just about the only Virginia COVID cohort unprotected re: having their dirty laundry exposed to the public?

    • we’re not disclosing individuals right? How is what they are doing different , say from collecting cell phone data for Inrix? As long as we’re not disclosing specific individuals’ info…

      their collective behavior was, again, not observations of specific people but generalized observations…

      are you sure this is what you are saying here or am I not understanding?

  5. So, Jim, what do you propose the governor do in order to keep the coronavirus from spreading, resulting in more hospitalizations and deaths? Nothing? Go back to stay-at-home orders and business closures?

    He has modified his executive orders to allow the economy to begin reopening. He has directed, primarily, that people wear masks and practice social distancing. At first, he said that the state would exercise a light hand in enforcing these practices. Instead, he was relying on the good sense and good faith of citizens, along with business establishments asking their patrons to obey the rules. He was criticized, including by you, I believe, for making business owners and employees bear the burden of enforcement and being the bad guy. Now, he is saying that the state will ramp up its enforcement efforts and will back up businesses in the effort. And he gets criticized for that.

    • Jim is arguing this along the lines of many Conservatives who say that Governors do not really have the right to do these restrictions and lockdowns because they are guaranteed rights of liberty.

      AND that “science” is not only not the truth from on high but it deserves to not be trusted and certainly not be what Governors should be relying on in making these COVID19 decisions.

      Finally, the argument is that is people choose to not believe the science and have a right to disregard illegal actions by the govt, they have a perfect right to go forth and get the virus and deal with it themselves.

      We don’t need no stinking nanny-govt telling us how to lead our lives and forcing us to do things we don’t want to do.

      yep…. the Tea party is morphing… 😉

    • It is impossible to keep the virus from spreading, and it probably continues to evolve into forms more easily transmitted. It exists on this earth for one purpose – to get into the lungs of as many human beings as possible. It is very good at that, and just masking up and standing apart won’t save everybody. So slow or fast are the only choices.

    • What would I do? Here’s what I recommended in my post yesterday:

      If deaths move higher, then we will need to maintain our vigilance, which means:

      – Maintaining restrictions on mass gatherings that could turn into super-spreader events;
      – Maintaining best virus-containment practices in places of commerce and employment;
      – Voluntarily wearing masks in public places, especially indoors;
      – Identifying and disseminating best practices in long-term care facilities;
      – Focus contact tracing in Hispanic communities where the spread of COVID-19 at present is the most prevalent. This may require hiring more bilingual contact tracers.
      – Keeping Virginia open for business and commerce. Protect the vulnerable and let the healthy get back to work.

      • All those are good suggestions. There seems to be one major problem, however: a significant number of people are not voluntarily wearing masks in public places in some areas of the state. And wearing a mask is an integral aspect of “maintaining best virus-containment practices in places of commerce and employment.”

    • Unless he’s already done this … I suggest that he mandate the wearing of masks in retail stores, restaurants, etc without exception. That might actually violate the Americans with Disabilities Act but Northam has been willing to violate the US and Virginia constitutions so why not the ADA. This would take the onus of being sued under the ADA off the business owner and put it on the state.

      • He cannot, no Governor can make that mandate. You cannot legally ask if someone has a medical conditions that precludes them from wearing one and you cannot deny them services because they aren’t wearing one (ADA field day in court).

  6. The science argument has nothing to do with violating rights. If it is important enough have a special session and pass some laws with healthy debate. Im down with passing laws… even if I think they are stupid. Emergency orders were fine for a few weeks… this has been months.
    Science also says you will live and die at some point. If I was a person or had family with a known risk I would avoid public spaces and interactions and take extreme precautions when I had to go out. People with certain conditions do this every day for other health risks. This is not new just different and more widespread.
    I just find the call the police over a mask to be incredible from Gov Woke.

    • Science DOES drive public health and safety laws. That’s just a fact.

      VDH inspects restaurants to look at things like hot and cold food holding temperatures – based on science.

      VDH intervenes when a restaurant worker contracts an infectious disease – again – that determination of fact is science-based then the law kicks in accordingly.

      VDOT – yes VDOT – designs and operates traffic signals – things that force you to do certain things that you’d not otherwise do – and based on what science says about people’s behaviors when dealing with traffic “control” devices.

      You cannot go into a restaurant smoking – again – that a combination of science and law.

      So what is it about that – that is wrong? This is not a new thing.

      • You made my point. Everything you pointed out went through a legislatve process or public regulatory process.
        If the science says its necessary, have a special session (I believe a pandemic more than qualifies) and pass some laws. That’s it. Not make up executive orders as one man sees fit. That’s all I ask. And I feel the same way for King Orangeman-bad as I do for Dr Northam. Like I said it was fine for an emergency, but we all know this is here for at least months if not ever. Have some debates, present facts, and vote.

        • Most of what Northam is doing – other governors are including in GOP states, no?

          Are you thinking that none of the states are doing this right?

          Are any?

          • What’s your point? They are just as wrong as Northam, in PA a bill was introduced and passed that limits the Governors ability to declare an Emergency to 21 days. There after it requires the GA to extend it, that is how all states should operate. Governors are not Kings, nor are their selected assistants who aren’t accountable to anyone.

          • NorrhsideDude

            Doing something wrong or right isn’t the point. We don’t elect kings. No matter which party, and I said that above, has the right to govern by executive order after executive order… this must be reigned in.

          • Nancy_Naive

            It’s a good thing this is (as we are so often reminded here) Virginia and the governor has unfettered emergency authority… kinda like absolute immunity and absolute authority. Where have I heard that recently?

            Oh well, if the governor does it, it cannot be illegal.

        • There will be a special session soon. The GA then will have a chance to weigh in on the Governor’s emergency powers. Until then, the governor’s actions are in accordance with current law.

          • And state laws that are in conflict with the US Constitution are null and void. Prohibiting or restricting religious services is a good example.

            Beyond that, I can recall when Mark Herring refused to enforce Virginia law because he believed it violated the US Constitution. The US Supreme Court ultimately decided that Va law did violate the constitution but Herring refused to enforce the Va law before the Supreme Court ruling.

            It’s hard for me to understand how Northam’s restrictions on religious gathering does not violate the US Constitution and how Herring could enforce that law knowing that it violates the US Constitution.

            “Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof;”

            Pretty straightforward, no?

  7. So – pretty much all states have set up illegal systems for governance?

    ‘Serious question. Many of these states laws are long-standing, and some might be based on their Constitutions.

    What changed? The fact that they did not foresee the length of an emergency?

    • Larry,

      Will you please quit with the straw man stuff. Who’s saying all the states have set up illegal systems for governance. Try to limit yourself to what the other side is actually saying instead of what you want him to have said in order to make his argument look bad. Classic straw man fallacy. Please, look it up. That, and the Tu quoque problem that you use so often (What I affectionately call “And so’s yo mamma”)

      • I’m asking that question Crazy. Have all other states set up similiar type “emergency” laws that some consider illegal ?

        OR – are there some states out there that have set those laws up correctly (in the minds of some)?

        no straw man at all…

        It’s a serious question because I’ve heard this complaint many times from Conservatives from a lot of states… not just Virginia…

        21 days for emergencies? Is there a “correct” number based on anything in particular or is it sorta arbitrary?

        • Umm again, yes and PA is passing legislation to remedy that problem. It gives the Governor 21 days and beyond that the GA needs to be involved. Lots of Laws are considered “legal” until they are invoked and legally challenged. It would be better if they faced scrutiny prior to their passage but that doesn’t happen.

  8. Sure it will work. Do like the mayor of Austin, and slap a $2000 administrative fine on it. There’s no court involved because it’s not a criminal charge. It’s similar to the fine for leaving your trash cans on the street the day after pick up.

    Same as traveling to Cuba. Only, that’s a $50,000 fine.

    • A fine for what? I have respiratory problems. I won’t wear a mask. Without violating my right to privacy … prove me wrong.

      • Bring a note from your doctor, Captain Bonespur, ’cause the cool thing about administrative fines is that there is no burden of proof on the state.

        • You cannot legally require someone to produce a note regarding a medical condition that you legally are not entitled to have knowledge of.

          Statements like that are good grounds for the ADA to sue you into oblivion, and they do.

          PS, this has nothing to do with Trump.

          • Nancy_Naive

            You’re not requiring them to do anything but wear the mask or pay the fine, a non-criminal fine. As such, one can always appeal, but the burden is on the appellant.

          • Umm that’s called discrimination and it’s against the Law. Again, the ADA will have a field day. It’s actually not, but that’s fun you think so.

  9. I have no problem with a fine. I wear a mask and see asshats of all ages, sexes, and races not wearing one.
    Write some regs, go throught the APA, and get it done… if you have the authority. If not have the GA give you the authority and then write the regs.
    I’m cool with representative democracy not dictators.

    • The governor has the authority under the emergency powers laws passed by the GA.

      • And I was fine with it as an emergency. But I think we can all agree emergency is looking more like long-term norm. So reassemble the GA or use the APA. Have a public process and take comment/ debate.

        • You clearly have never been to sea in a small boat. The definition of an emergency situation is anytime the water is deeper than the shortest crew member. The emergency lasts until the threat is gone

          • How long depends on which political party is in charge. This is more like fighting to be at the highest point on a sinking ship.

          • We aren’t at Sea, Boats aren’t Democracies and your analog falls flat.

          • Earth. In the grand scheme of the universe, it’s not a boat. It barely qualifies as a PFD.

      • Shouldn’t it be the Board of Health rather than the governor issuing and enforcing health instructions through regulations? How does the emergency powers change that?

        “§32.1-12 State Board of Health Regulations, variances and exemptions Makes, adopts, promulgates and enforces regulations, and provides for reasonable variances and exemptions therefrom, to carry out its responsibilities or those of the Commissioner or the Department (State Board of Health Regulations, variances and exemptions §32.1-12).”

        We also have: § 32.1-13. Emergency orders and regulations.

        The Board may make separate orders and regulations to meet any emergency, not provided for by general regulations, for the purpose of suppressing nuisances dangerous to the public health and communicable, contagious and infectious diseases and other dangers to the public life and health.

        • There you go…. write or amend a regulation, go theough the appropriate board…. this has been months which may drag on for s year or ever. At least start the process.

          • What’s wrong with § 32.1-12 and § 32.1-13 that are in place on the books now? Oh. I forgot. It doesn’t let the governor take center stage.

        • Technically, you are correct. But, Sec. 32.1-20 vests the Commissioner with the authority of the Board of Health when it is not in session. Sec. 2.2-103 declares “the Governor shall have the authority and responsibility for the formulation and administration of the policies of the executive branch.” In addition, the Commissioner of Health is responsible to the Governor. Therefore, the Governor would have any powers provided to his subordinates. And, if you noticed, the executive orders declaring a state of medical emergency and setting out conditions for dealing with it, were issued jointly by the Govenor and the Commissioner of Health.

          • subordinates have legal authority and powers to do their thing but they serve at the pleasure of the Governor.

            Ask Trump about that….process…

      • The governor has no authority to prohibit the free exercise of religion because the US Constitution says he can’t. There are no asterisks in the Bill of Rights whether the left likes that or not. Personally, I wouldn’t go near my parish for mass given the COVID-19 situation but I also don’t support a governor for dismissing the constitutional rights of people to do just that.

  10. What’s the APA? Any idea how long an Emergency should last before authority expires?

    • Let the bidding start at 90 days!

      In my opinion, for each specific declared emergency the executive’s emergency powers should expire after 90 days, unless the legislature votes to extend them by a specific amount of time. I would apply it at both the state and national levels.

  11. Administrative Process Act… what you follow to promulgate regulations. General Assembly gives Executive Branch agencies the authority to create regulations. APA defines the process which typically contains a public component. Hearings, comment period, etc.

    • right, thanks.

      But what you are asking for is for the legislature to essentially limit the powers of a co-equal branch of government. no?

      We’ve already seen this in some states where the legislature is the opposite party of the Governor and had enough of a majority to override a veto.

      Isn’t this a Constitutional issue where the stated powers of the Gov are in the Constitution and not specified by the kind of “emergency”.

      I suspect this issue is headed to the SCOTUS.

      in theory – you don’t have one branch of government specifying limitations on the other branches…

  12. What’s missing in this politicization of COVID-19 is the simple observation that the virus spreads across geographies over time. Once upon a time Arizona looked pretty good. Texas too. Until they didn’t. If anything they may have closed too soon after seeing the fiasco in New York and reopened too soon because they didn’t seem to understand that the virus eventually shows up everywhere. There is also no reason to think this is over in New York, NoVa or anywhere that has seen a decline in cases / hospitalizations / deaths. What we need is less of Northam popping off about his displeasure at the perceived misdeeds of young people on the beach and more critical thinking about how various regions in Virginia can be reopened, reclosed then reopened again as the situation warrants.

    • “Once upon a time Arizona looked pretty good. Texas too. Until they didn’t…” because they didn’t try.

      Didn’t mean to treat you bad
      Didn’t know just what I had
      But honey, now that Covid’s true
      And don’t it make those Red States,
      Don’t it make those Red States,
      Don’t it make those Red States Blue… no, literally, blue.

      Yeah, and heck, it was under control in Israel… school’s out. Again.

    • I’m not sure “didn’t seem to understand” really characterizes their “thinking”. We actually have a bunch of it here in Virginia with some critics. “Open up now or we are going to make a hell of a stink and if you don’t like it, go hide under your bed”!

      Everybody and their dog has a complaint about the virus… and it’s gotta be someone’s fault.

      And each state has their own critics.

  13. Order 63 had the medical loop-hole. Order 67 appears to have eliminated the medical exemption for employees (though its clear as mud on that point.) I haven’t seen anything that eliminates the loop-hole for patrons (please let me know if you’ve seen anything stating otherwise.) I’ve been meaning to look up Order 66; can’t beleive I missed that.

    Those of you who think businesses can easily enforce patrons to wear masks don’t have any practical experience dealing with the general public. Its going to be like russian roulette and its rich coming from the party of “employee protection.” The only way this works is if the police have the ability to fine or arrest patrons on sight (then, you’d have to get the police to wears masks too.)

  14. These are the states requiring people to wear masks when out in public


  15. … now what will likely happen is that DH or ABC will shut-down a small number of operators to set an example. The general public will have no idea how severe the issue really was at those locations, but it will make the news and sully the reputation of the unlucky businesses that were put into an untentable situation by near impossible to enforce regulations. This is right out of the Va ABC playbook.

  16. Pingback: Northam’s COVID Conference | Bacon's Rebellion

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