If you want more of this….
by James A. Bacon
Wind and solar power are becoming increasingly competitive with fossil fuels and nuclear as an electric power source. As Virginia integrates more renewable energy sources into its electric generation mix, a big question is how much can the power grid handle before the intermittent nature of blowing winds and sunny skies threatens the reliability of electric service. The answer, according to PJM Interconnection, is quite a lot.
… you need to build more of this.
PJM, the Pennsylvania-based entity that oversees the reliability of the electric grid in a multi-state region in the Mid-Atlantic and Midwest, including Virginia, commissioned GE Energy Consulting to examine the issue. The conclusion:
The PJM system, with adequate transmission expansion and additional regulating reserves, will not have any significant issues operating with up to 30% of its energy provided by wind and solar generation. … No insurmountable operating issues were uncovered over the many simulated scenarios of system-wide hourly operation. …
Bacon’s bottom line: This is not news to anyone in the electric power industry — the study is a year old. But it’s news to me, as I slowly climb the learning curve on this topic, and it may be news to readers who have been moving up that learning curve with me, not to mention legislators who shape the regulatory environment for Virginia utilities.
There is one critical caveat in the quote above that bears close attention: “with adequate transmission expansion.”
PJM’s grid could handle 20% renewable penetration with modest requirements for new transmission lines, the study states, but costs soar at the 30% level. Depending on the scenario, PJM estimates that the regional grid would require construction of between 754 and 2,946 total miles of transmission lines ranging in cost between $3.7 billion and $13.7 billion.
Under the 30% renewable-penetration scenario, PJM assumes that much of the power will originate in Midwest states with strong, steady winds where wind power is most economical, and the grid will need transmission capacity to move electricity to markets in the east. But even with solar-intensive scenarios, new transmission lines also may be needed on a local level as power companies reconfigure the flow of electricity from decommissioned coal, nuclear and, eventually, gas-fired generating stations to the solar facilities.
And that raises a new question: Can power companies build those transmission lines on a timely basis? Environmental and landowner groups put up staunch resistance to the construction of intrusive high-capacity transmission lines through wilderness, countryside and areas of historic value, as has we have seen on numerous occasions in Virginia. These conflicts can be protracted. Friday night, for instance, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers held another public hearing on the proposed Surry-Skiffes Creek transmission line, even as Dominion Virginia Power warned that the line will take at least 18 months to construct and will create a months-long window of vulnerability when it shutters two coal-fired units at its Yorktown Power Station. Residents and businesses on the Virginia Peninsula face a high likelihood of rolling blackouts in 2017.
The re-engineering of the electric grid to address the global problem of climate change could result in more intense conflict at the local level over disruption to wildlife habitat, soil erosion, water quality and other environmental values — not to mention economic disruption. Virginia has only begun to grapple with this contradiction.
(Hat tip: Kevin Chandler.)
