by James A. Bacon
Hospitalization of patients testing positive for COVID-19 continues to creep higher in Virginia, though not at the scarily rapid rate of earlier in the month. Social distancing measures, both those imposed and those voluntarily embraced by the population, are slowing the spread of the virus.
The plague is still spreading by this measure — 870 confirmed cases yesterday, up from 854 the previous day — but we’re close enough to a peak that Virginia hospitals are no longer worried about Italy-style scenarios being replicated here. (The VHHA also reports the number of hospitalized patients who are being tested for the virus, which stands at 495 in today’s data update. But I have not been tracking that number, so I cannot say how fast it has been rising.)
Even the widely reported shortage of personal protective equipment (PPE) seems to be easing. At one point, the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association dashboard indicated that 11 hospitals in the state expected to have difficulty obtaining the equipment within the next 72 hours. That number now is down to three.
Other metrics from today’s VHHA report:
- COVID-19 patients in ICUs: 419 yesterday
- COVID-19 patients on ventilators: 244
Total beds available: 5,519
The total number of COVID-19 patients in hospitals is only one measure for hospital usage. It is also useful to track the number of ICU beds in use and the number of patients on ventilators as measures of patients with severe symptoms. Here’s what those metrics look like:
By these measures, resource-intensive treatment of COVID-19 patients is either flat or declining slightly.
Note: I have presented no Virginia Department of Health data today because the VDH has not yet updated its coronavirus website.
Update: And here is John Butcher’s fitted curve for confirmed new cases (based on Virginia Department of Health data, for whatever that is worth):
