COVID-19 Update: Confirmed Cases Trending Lower

Despite a rough doubling of COVID-19 tests over the past two weeks, the number of confirmed cases is trending lower according to this graph (above) produced on the Virginia Department of Health (VDH) COVID-19 dashboard.

Meanwhile, the number of COVID-19 patients currently being hospitalized is drifting higher, as the chart below from John Butcher indicates. But Virginia’s hospital system is not remotely facing a capacity crisis.

— JAB

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12 responses to “COVID-19 Update: Confirmed Cases Trending Lower

  1. Fairfax was about 300 new cases yesterday, which is the first time I saw it that high…no way for me to know if that is real or due to more testing.

    I am in receipt of a granular list of Zipcodes in Virginia, where the cases are highest in numbers. I am told it is from the Dept of Health, but I have not found the data online. It is mostly NoVA: Alexandria, Arlington, and significant sections of Fairfax and Prince William Counties. In general the zip codes in question tend to have larger Hispanic population. In general those zips have up to 1% of population testing positive (by my calcs).

    If your zip is low population, but high COVID, it would not register since the zip code list I have is based on numbers of cases, not per capita. Essentially if your zip has over 200 cases, you are on that list. Richmond is on there as one of the few non-NoVA areas to register high enough cases to make the list.

  2. Here is Virginia ZipCode/COVID list apparently released this week.

    https://www.insidenova.com/news/special/coronavirus/virginia-releases-zip-code-level-data-on-covid-19-cases/article_702f5298-913e-11ea-bd55-8f147a612763.html

    So my Zip has about 0.5% positive cases, let’s call it moderate high. You can see how your Zip is doing.

    • Thanks TBill. Any idea what Suppressed* means?

      The Fredericksburg Area is 22401 – 22407 – It looks like we
      have a bunch of cases.

      As Cuomo said today, the virus does not know boundaries and so,
      looking at regions in terms of MSAs is more informative than zip codes that may not be recognized as all part of a given MSA.

      • I assume suppressed means so few cases that it could identify the individuals, in sparsely populated zips. But when Fairfax only had a few cases, we knew a lot about those few cases…from the Nile trips etc. Only after the Ffx cases exceeded about 20, then they stopped saying anything about who was getting it.

        • that makes sense … just for some context… here’s a map of the zip codes for the Fredericksburg Area – which, in turn, is essentially an exurban bedroom community of NoVa.

  3. @TDBILL, It’s on VDH’s coronavirus website. You need excel to open the file, I think. I looked at it yesterday. It’s near the bottom of the page when you open up a tab that says “Data Download” and click on the bottom download link under “Cases and Testing Data by ZIP Code.”

  4. Thank you, conycatcher for the location.

    TBill, sounds like your list may have been edited for local use.

    Well, let’s see how this works for Mathews County.
    Public use dataset- Zip Code: Of 16 zip codes, one not shown on VDH list; 5 suppressed, 9 with no cases. Total of 92 tests for 8834 population = 1.04% tested.

    (MSA is Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News. Literally, our only connection is the border with Gloucester County, so doesn’t apply.)

    Public Use Dataset – Cases: 5. 1 hospitalized. Has been updated to show the new case this week, but still only shows one hospitalization when word on street is new person is also in hospital. So that gives us an incidence of 0.057%

    So, it’s unlikely that there is 1 case in each of the suppressed zip codes when at least one couple is involved. So the suppression of case numbers in some zip codes and not others doesn’t make sense.

  5. So here’s a Constitutional question. Suppose, given recent events, the President and Vice President contract CoV2. Both are hospitalized. The VP lapses into a coma, his situation dire. The President passes.

    With the VP incapacitated under a poor prognosis, the Speaker is sworn in. Amonth later, the VP recovers and is discharged.

    Who is President?

  6. The purpose of the Lockdown etc. was to reduce the “Rate” of spread of CV so hospitals could prepare for influx of CV patients.
    Looks like mission accomplished..
    Why are we still in Lockdown mode..

    PS… everyone, repeat everyone is going to get CV until they come up with a vaccine. Despite all the sweet talk it could easily be never!!! Just think common cold or HIV, after years of study and lots of $$$, no vaccine for those.

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