The Governor’s task force on climate change is meeting in Blacksburg today. One of the voices that will not be heard is that of Patrick Michaels, former state climatologist and one of the nation’s leading Global Warming skeptics. Despite his extensive knowledge on climate change issues, Michaels was conspicuously not asked to serve on the commission. That’s no surprise, of course, given the fact that the commission was predicated on the key assumption, which Michaels questions, that human-caused increases in carbon dioxide will cause calamitously higher temperatures and sea levels. Under the circumstances, inviting Michaels to participate arguably would not lead to a productive exchange of ideas.
To my knowledge, Michaels has never commented on Virginia’s climate change task force… until now. In a post on the World Climate Report blog either Michaels or one of his co-bloggers takes on the subject of “The Virginia Climate Change Commission and the Mirage of Low Hanging Fruit.” (Authorship of the blog post is not attributed to any one of the blog’s three contributing editors, so it’s not clear who wrote the post. But if the author wasn’t Michaels, it seems likely that he shares the author’s views.)
Rather than revisit the familiar global-warming controversies, the author focuses on the commission’s stated goal of cutting greenhouse gas emissions by 30 percent by the year 2025 in order to restore emissions to 2000 levels. The goal, contends the author, who apparently has attended one or more of the commission hearings, will be harder than it looks.
The Commission [is] seeking potential ways to meet this goal through conservation, energy efficiency improvements, encouragement of renewable energies, etc. Oftentimes the discussion turned to identifying the “low hanging fruit” that was available to achieve the agreed upon goal — that is finding the easiest and most straightforward way of attempting to reduce emissions.
But there is no low-hanging fruit, the author contends. Obvious changes are already spoken for. Recommending changes that business and government are likely to make even in the absence of any action by the commission will amount to double counting and won’t get Virginia any closer to the commission’s goals. The argument is a bit arcane but worthy of consideration. Here’s the logic:
Virginia’s gross state product has been growing over the last 10 years at an average rate of about 3.5 percent yearly (2000 constant dollars). Virginia’s energy usage as well as its CO2 emissions have grown at a slower rate: slightly more than two percent yearly. In other words, Virginia’s economy is getting more energy efficient per unit of economic output.
Forecasts of Virginia’s economic output, energy consumption and CO2 emissions through 2025 take that improving energy efficiency into account. According to the “Greenhouse Gas Reduction Goal Update,” the Kaine administration is already assuming “continuing improvement in energy efficiency/energy intensity” for its “Business As Usual” energy scenario.
“Virginians have found ways to produce more per unit energy usage year-over-year through innovation and hard work,” writes the World Climate Report author. Motivated by higher energy prices, Virginians are projected to increase energy efficiency by 25 percent without any action on the part of the commission. The commission needs to find an extra 30 percent in CO2 reduction.
Writes the author:
What all of this means, is that the Commission cannot suggest things that would otherwise occur in their absence — for as we have seen, these things are implicit in the business-as-usual extrapolations. Thus, the Commission cannot recommend actions that are somewhat obvious (i.e. the low hanging fruit) and that are ongoing or will occur on their own in response to higher fuel costs, introduction of new technologies, price saving measures, etc.
Such actions include a constant push towards improving manufacturing efficiencies, the trend towards cars with higher gas mileage, the gradual switchover to compact florescent light bulbs, and any other initiatives that are already on the books or would otherwise be thought up. … Again, business-as-usual implies innovation.
Bacon’s bottom line: I concur with this appraisal. Now, to follow the World Climate Report author’s logic to its logical conclusion: Achieving the Commission’s goals will require Fundamental Change to Virginia’s institutions. In other words, we need to go “deep green.”
“Green Lite” — relatively easy-to-implement conservation measures from CFL light bulbs to building-automation systems, from higher gas-mileage vehicles to more efficient industrial processes — is already happening. Implementation of these solutions will be driven by the soaring price of gasoline, coal, natural gas and electricity. Households and businesses are amply motivated to seek them out.
But there’s a deeper level of energy conservation that’s not so easily achieved because it entails changes not just to individual or corporate behavior but changes to intractably energy-intensive transportation systems and human settlement patterns. Reaching the Kaine administration’s goal of cutting CO2 by 30 percent (on top of the Business-As-Usual reduction of 25 percent) will require more than increasing the average fuel efficiency of Virginia’s automobile fleet by three or four miles per gallon. It will require cutting vehicle miles driven by 20 percent (or some enormous percentage). Likewise, reaching the goal will require more than installing more efficient HVAC systems and stuffing insulation in the cracks of single family dwellings. It may require a 20 percent reduction in the cubic footage of residential, retail, office or industrial space to be heated and cooled.
While necessary for a prosperous and sustainable society, embracing “deep green” and achieving Fundamental Change will be neither easy nor popular.
Today is the Climate Change commission’s last day for the presentation of facts and ideas by experts. It will be interesting to see if any of the materials posted online include any discussion of the need for changes that go beyond “Business As Usual” scenarios.
