Monthly Archives: June 2008

Virginia Senator John Miller (D-1SD) will introduce a bill to abolish the Hampton Roads Transportation Authority (HRTA).

This unelected, unaccountable, unseparated powers Regional Government – ruled un-Constitutional (by unanimous decision of the Virginia Supreme Court) -has already spent $200k.

Let’s see which Hampton Roads legislators sign up to be co-patrons of this bill – and how many Republicans make it bi-partisan for good governance.

Wow, it’s been a crazy week. Let me tell you, Disney World is not for old people — well, it’s not for old people acclimated to an auto-centric society where little walking is required. In Disney World, you do a lot of walking. You also find yourself hurtling along in roller coasters and other devices at high speeds, often experiencing multiple G forces.

I prefer more contemplative get-aways that give me a chance to read and relax. My wife likes cramming in as many experiences as she possibly can. At Disney World, it wasn’t a contest. My wife won. The Bacon family ran itself ragged 12 hours a day, then collapsed in the hotel room long enough to re-charge batteries and hit the rides again. Fun — but exhausting.

We’re back in Richmond now, and I’ve plowed through the 1,400 emails in my in-box. (More than half of it was spam; most of the rest was commentary by you, dear readers). Now I’m ready to belly up to the PC and get back to the business of writing about the real world, which is a lot more interesting than the ersatz, Disneyfied world.

Just a few comments before I plunge ahead.

First, for the record, I found Epcot and Animal Kingdom to be the most enjoyable parts of Disney World. In particular, I was intrigued by the Epcot greenhouse, where a slow boat ride takes you on a tour past a remarkable array of fruit trees and vegetables grown under hydroponic conditions. I know, I’m such a dweeb. To my fellow dweebs, I highly recommend it. Alas, I missed the “Behind the Seeds” tour for a more in-depth look. But I suspect that greenhouses and hydroponics will play a role in the sustainable, energy-efficient agriculture of the future.

Second, I want to thank Ed Risse for keeping the blog alive in my absence. Good job, Ed, you certainly managed to keep the pot boiling!

(Image credit: Gardenvisit.com)

We saw Jim Bacon’s 4 June post on the Aptera concept car (“300 MPG. This could be the Coolest Car Ever?”) just before we left on a 22 mile chained trip to accomplish seven errands that could not be done here in Greater Warrenton Fauquier. (For those who came in late, since 1973 we have primarily worked very near where we lived and have tried to minimize our travel except where there is no alternative.)

We stated our view of Aptera in a comment when the vehicle was called to our attention via a comment following the 2 June post “Tremble, Mortals, the Rebellion is Unleashed.”

Tiny cars are old, old news. Folks have been designing little vehicles that go for miles with not much fuel for decades.

Mini cars can be part of a solution to Access and Mobility. We helped design Planned New Communities around mini-vehicles over three decades ago. They can work well in some existing urban environments but it is not a slam dunk. It takes a design / redesign of the settlement pattern and the transport infrastructure at the Alpha Village and Alpha Community scale as well as the design of the vehicle to achieve a real alternative to Large, Private Vehicles in most environments.

Jim was so excited about the Aptera in his 4 June post that the little three wheeler and its ilk were on our mind as we carried out our journey. This was not a “road trip” and we took the least traveled routes that got us to a series of destinations in a reasonable time frame. The trip did not take us on I-66, the most heavily traveled road we used was US Route 29.

In spite of this, in our travels we encountered two 18-wheel flatbeds owned by a company in Alabama hauling very heavy loads. One driver knew where he was going and apparently was running late, the other driver did know where he was going and was trying to keep up – ran some yellow / red lights, etc. The Alabama trucks were hauling just the sort of loads that should be on a railroad, not cutting off drivers in vehicles weighing one twentieth as much. At least we were visible and had good visibility from our vehicle.

Then there were several landscaper’s trucks with big trailers full of parked (not secured) mowers and no brakes who were late for their next mowing job. There was an Escalade driver who did not want to be passed by a VW beetle and two Lexus drivers who wanted to get in front of the school bus before it made its next stop (more red lights) and then … You get the idea, it was a normal day on the roadways.

No person in their right mind would drive an Aptera under these conditions and we were just running errands. One of the reasons I sold my first sports car, among others, was that I watched what happened to an MG-midget that was unseen by the driver of a semi when the truck changed lanes. An Aptera would fit nicely under the bed of, and then under the wheels of, one of those Alabama flatbeds…

An Aptera would look like burner cover after being hit even by the VW Beetle. Driving a vehicle that rides low to the ground at 30, 40, 50 or 60 mph among other vehicles that weigh up to 30 times as much would be a form of insanity. Even the far more substantial Smart car profiled in THE PROBLEM WITH CARS would be “uncomfortable.”

A few days later (6 June 2008) CNN ran a story “SUV owners keep on truckin’ despite gas prices.” You can guess why. The disaggregated lives of the owners lead them to believe that they have no alternative but to use these vehicles. And now Chrysler will guarantee they do not need to worry about gas prices if they buy a new Chrysler built SUV.

Perhaps you would like to get a hybrid? On the 9th US News had a story titled “Is a Hybrid Worth it.” For the most part the answer is no from a return-on-investment perspective. The vast majority of the current rash of hybrids are just Green Greed – by companies that make them – and Green Fog by those who buy them.

What is the bottom line here?

The US of A has evolved:

A settlement pattern,

A transport system to serve that settlement pattern, and

A system of providing Large Private Vehicles to drive on that system.

Collectively, these three realities make incremental “improvements” in Mobility and Access

Unwise for those at the top of the economic Ziggurat, and

Impossible for the majority who are not at the top.

What does this say about Fundamental Transformation (formerly Fundamental Change) in human settlement patterns and Fundamental Transformations in governance structure to achieve functional settlement patterns?

It says that until the majority of citizens understand the need for those Fundamental Transformations they will not happen,

And further, all the discussion of “solutions,” not just by the Tiger Riders but by well-intended incrementalists (“we-have-to-start-somewhere” / “that-is-all-we-can-sell-politically” / “this-is-a-step-in-the-right-direction”) only puts off the day when there is informed consensus of the need for Transformation / Change.

Drive safely and have a good weekend.

EMR

PS: Jim said he would be traveling Saturday and it would be good to put up something. I hope he had a safe drive up from Greater Orlando, he was not in an Aptera.

Adam Smith is smiling.

He never did like Tiger Riders, always believed in that invisible hand.

Since 1973 – when I started paying careful attention (and when our Household made decisions to cut non-renewable energy consumption at the Household scale) – every time there has been a jump in fuel prices or lines at the gas stations citizens have changed their habits.

This time is no exception. Yesterday’s headline at the top of WaPo Page 1 reads: “At $4 a Gallon, Rethinking Cars’ Reign.” In a CNN poll, most expect fuel shortages. “$5 a gallon by Fall” is the word on the street and Congress just gave speculators a green light.

Over the same 35 years, every time some one suggests that:

• Industrialized nation-states have to rethink dependence on Large, Private Vehicles for Mobility and Access there has been a chant about Americans loving Autonomobiles, or

• A fair allocation of the cost of location-variable goods and services, the Tiger Riders talk about the inelasticity of gasoline prices, the prospect of cheap alternative fuels and unending supplies inexpensive energy.

These smokescreens are just part much larger and more important deceptions related to the trajectory of civilization.

In December of 2006 we suggested there was a need for “A New Metric for Citizen Well Being” (db4.dev.baconsrebellion.com) to replace consumption and growth.

In March of this year we suggested, for the reasons spelled out in THE ESTATES MATRIX, that MainStream Media was obscuring the need to abandon Mass OverConsumption and Business As Usual in order to preserve – for the time being – its revenue stream. “Good New, Bad Reporting” 24 March 2008.

Today’s WaPo headline is “McCain, Obama Clash over Economy.” One has an 80s solution, the other a 90s solution.

Here are some tentative targets for crafting a realistic economic survival plan. There is no guarantee that this level of conservative action will change the trajectory enough but they will help and they are within limits that most citizens would embrace if they understood the enormity of the consequences of Business As Usual:

One percent annual decline in Gross Domestic Product

Three percent annual decline in Consumer Consumption

Five percent annual decline in Total Energy Consumption

Ten percent annual decline in Energy Imports

After a decade on this new consumption trajectory it should be possible to anticipate a one percent annual drop in total population. Both per capita consumption and total population declines are necessary.

The role of functional human settlement patterns will be critical in achieving these goals. Functional human settlement patterns are the only strategy that can achieve this level of conservation without destroying the Quality of Life for the majority of citizens.

In fact Lewenz argues that changes in human settlement patterns that would achieve these goals at the Village scale would improve Quality of Life. We agree.

In this discussion, we are talking about Quality of Life from the perspective of 75 percent of the economic and social Ziggurat. See THE ESTATES MATRIX.

EMR

In the comments section following WHAT ARE THEY THINKING Groveton gives the League of Tiger Riders some things to think about. In this post we have taken several of Groveton’s key observations and re-sequenced them to put the Tiger Rider issue in the spotlight.

Lets start with Groveton saying:

“I agree with EMR about the wealth gap and the inevitable consequences of that gap.”

The Wealth Gap may not be the most obvious front burner driver of society dysfunction but failure to address it NOW may make all the other problems and their solutions moot.

The Tiger Riders who want to stimulate Supercapitalism took down the sign that read: “Welcome to those who want to join us and make a great nation-state.”

In its place they put up two signs:

One sign says: “Come here and get filthy rich, no commitment to hard work or citizen participation required.”

The other sign reads: “We have given up the whole idea of hard work and real creativity. We are into entertainment, consumption and speculation. If you want to work hard doing what you will never see anyone doing on TV you can be better off here than you can where you live now.” (And by the way we are leaving the back door unlocked so you can sneak in…)

When “The Shape of the Future” was written, population was headed towards stability with the long term prospect of slowly decreasing. Those two signs drafted in the 80s and erected in the 90s changed that big time.

Those at the bottom of the Ziggurat who do not know any way to get ahead but to work hard came in droves via the front door and the back door.

Those who had special skills or capital to invest also came in droves. (A lot of that capital came from selling oil and junk to US of A consumers.)

Those who are smart enough to have skills and capital recognize that US of A is like an athlete who has been too long on steroids – cheap energy. They are smart and want to be able to bail when things turn south.

Here Groveton adds an important observation about which I was not previously aware:

“For example, there is a trend among Americans of European extraction to apply for dual citizenship with the European country of their heritage. Of course, as a citizen in any EU country you can live in any other EU country.”

Keep your options open!

Groveton goes on: “America is aging. That’s a demographic fact.”

A caveat: The percentage of those who are over X is going up but there are a lot of young immigrants and even more children of immigrants – especially children of illegals who want to have children born in the US of A.

Back to Groveton: “However, the wealth is aging faster and this is a bigger issue. If you look at the percentage of national wealth held by Americans of different age levels – the older are getting richer relative to the younger over time.”

Very true. The children of “the greatest generation” are stealing from their children and grandchildren for reasons we spell out in “The Shape of the Future.” Former Interior Secretary Stewart Udall and his wife wrote a powerful apology to their grandchildren on this topic. It is worth a read – look it up in the 31 March High Country News.

Groveton observes: “The biggest socioeconomic change is the shift in wealth to the elderly (or relatively elderly). The elderly retire, they stop getting salaries, they have more flexibility as to where (and how) they live.”

Caveat: With the current downturn and hemorrhaging of retirement funds a lot of the older folks will be working a lot longer. Since one of the few real benefits of technology over the past three decades is that those at the top of the Ziggurat are living longer and are healthier, they can work longer too.

Groveton says: “Bottom line – it’s not the Top 5%ers vs. the RHTCs. It is the Americans aged 20 – 40 vs. Americans aged 41 – 60.

Caveat: It is not either / or it is both / and. Recall all those “AOL millionaires” and all those who coasted through college and got the big bucks right out of school.

Here comes the key input from Groveton: “And the capital owned by those in retirement or close to retirement is mobile. So, first you have a wide wealth gap.”

“Then, 51% of the population elects a demigod. Then, the elderly wealthy move their capital (and, perhaps, themselves) to countries that don’t have a demigod as president / prime minister.”

“Then, the US of A is done.”

A very powerful argument for “minding the gap” – as they say in London – and for why we harp on the Wealth Gap issue.

One more caveat on this topic: Elderly and Mobile – especially those who have spent their lives relying on the Autonomobile for Mobility and Access – do not go together.

Some will move money off shore but those are in the top 5% and they rely on ‘money managers.’
As we will note in a review of “How to Build a Village” this demographic may be a key market for a Lewenz / Parallel Village.

Groveton asks: “Tell me where I am wrong here.”

Not at all “wrong,” just some caveats.

Lets go on to another prediction of Groveton’s:

“I predict that the question of proposing a new constitutional convention will begin to be asked of candidates to the state legislature in many states.”

Darrell — Chesapeake says it would not do any good because the Elephant Clan and the Donkey Clan would control the process. Right on Darrell.

That is why humans have to think of Fundamental Transformation in governance structure if citizens are preserve democracies with market economies.

What kind of Fundamental Transformations? Well, just the sort the founding fathers said would be needed: Changes to match changed conditions.

The first one? Evolve the governance so that it is congruent with the organic components of human settlement pattern.

Finally Groveton says: “I wonder about human settlement patterns being a big part of the solution.”

Groveton you need to give serious thought to the economic, social and physical impact of human settlement pattern – there is a book on the topic….

Groveton goes on to suggest that “Beyond that, I believe the wealth gap needs to be solved long before a more rational settlement plan can be implemented.”

Grave settlement pattern Myth: It will take a long time to change human settlement patterns. More on that in THE USE AND MANAGEMENT OF LAND

But will citizens change human settlement patterns with backhoes?

Later on in the comments Larry Gross says:

“No one.. I repeat no one is going to get rid of backhoes and go back to men with shovels even if fuel toes to $10 a gallon.”

Since we have far more land devoted to urban land uses than there is a potential market at sustainable patterns and densities, most of the “development” will be REDEVELOPMENT.

There will be a need for some backhoes but more shovels for two reasons:

First, the best way to solve the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis is with large doses of sweat equity.

Second, vast amounts of energy has been wasted on backhoes because of cheap energy.

When I was managing the development of community infrastructure I would often observe the following:

Three able bodied men (this was a while ago) would observe an unanticipated problem in laying a pipe, building a road or installing a storm or sanitary sewer.

They would discuss the problem for a while and then radio the office (this was a while ago >:) and the office would dispatch a lowboy with a bigger backhoe.

After hours of waiting and driving and unloading / loading and minutes of digging the problem was solved.

It could have been done by those three in an hour with shovels and the equipment they already had on the job.

Recall that second sign by the Supercapitalists about not wanting to do the work any more? $10 fuel will change that.

We will deal with inelasticity again soon.

EMR

Following the “WHAT ARE THEY THINKING” post At 11:58 AM, Groveton commented…

“The problems currently facing the United States will, sometime within in the next 20 years, precipitate a crisis.

Today’s WaPo has a story by David Hilzenrath under the headline “Mortgages With No Money Down Still Available: Fannie, Freddie Programs Fly in Face of Foreclosures.”

I would say sooner rather than later Groveton.

Groveton also asked:

“So, what differentiates a crisis from a national calamity? The willingness and ability to change.”

Too many are in the League of Tiger Riders to admit the need to change.

Further, Tiger Riders expect that if they fail that they will get a Bear S. bailout.

More on Grovetons several contributions to the WHAT ARE THEY THINKING post soon.

EMR

The WaPo headline says it all:

“Va. High Court Revives Dulles Toll Road Suit: Proposed Metro Extension Hits Another Snag”

Well actually the headline writer is not a lawyer. What happened is that the Supreme Court of Virginia refused to grant a request by the toll transfer proponents to have the suit thrown out. Same result.

In any event, congratulations Patrick.

Even if Jim Bacon has an upset stomach from too much sugar and scary rides, this will make him feel better.

EMR

While vast majority of the correspondence we receive is informative and supportive, on line we hear primarily from the League of Tiger Riders. Their activities were profiled in our last column “Riding the Tiger.”

One has to wonder: “What are they thinking?” On the other hand, it should not be surprising that we do not understand how “Not Ed Risse” and others think.

In a 2 June 2008 post on BR Blog POLITICAL WISDOM AND CONVENTION NOTICE we note a Wilfred Owens quote:

“There are no transport facility (or we always add, transport facility finance schemes) that will solve transport problem – there are only settlement pattern solutions.”

We heard from “Not Ed Risse” at 5:39 PM, he commented:

“Ed Risse’s ultimate nightmare is closer than he thinks.

“Unlimited, cheap, non-polluting fuel!

“Watch this video on TED.

“http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/227

“In early 2008, scientists at the J. Craig Venter Institute announced that they had manufactured the entire genome of a bacterium by painstakingly stitching together its chemical components. By sequencing a genome, scientists can begin to custom-design bootable organisms, creating biological robots that can produce from scratch chemicals humans can use, such as biofuel.

“Human ingenuity and freedom will lead to unimaginable prosperity for everyone.”

Lets go over this remarkable “response” item by item:

“Ed Risse’s ultimate nightmare is closer than he thinks. Unlimited, cheap, non-polluting fuel!”

No, E M Risse’s ultimate nightmare is not there will be “unlimited, cheap, non-polluting fuel” his nightmare is that more than a small minority are foolish enough to believe that “Unlimited, cheap, non-polluting fuel” will make the world a better place in any way, much less preserve the potential of maintaining democracies with market economies.

EMR’s hope is that this minority stays below the 20 percent threshold per the 60 % / 20 % / 20% Rule. About the same percentage as believe that the Earth is flat would be fine.

Not Ed Risse goes on:

“Watch this video on TED.

“http://www.ted.com/index.php/talks/view/id/227

“In early 2008, scientists at the J. Craig Venter Institute announced that they had manufactured the entire genome of a bacterium by painstakingly stitching together its chemical components. By sequencing a genome, scientists can begin to custom-design bootable organisms, creating biological robots that can produce from scratch chemicals humans can use, such as biofuel.”

Let us all agree that there a lot of smart folks with a lot of great ideas burning through billions in research dollars on what in The Shape of the Future we call “frontier science.” “Frontier science” is the pursuit of arcane answers to cutting edge questions for which someone believes there is a big payoff – not necessarily a big benefit. Among them is Dr. Venter’s team at JCVI.

With respect to “bootable organisms” JCVI has another long, difficult step to achieve their goal.

But if JCVI or someone else on the same track, does completed the quest, where will the feedstock to produce this biofuel come from?

Who will pay for the processes that generates a new fuel?

Who will control the processes?

One thing for sure, the product will not be “cheap.” One might as well count on Brazilians selling its new found petrochemical resources at below market price.

How about the Hydrogen economy? How about cheap nuclear power? Better yet just hope that Thomas Gold was right about spontaneous generation of hydrocarbons. Or perhaps cold fusion, you get the idea…

Finally, “Not Ed Risse” says:

“Human ingenuity and freedom will lead to unimaginable prosperity for everyone.”

Lets look at both ends of this “freedom and unimaginable prosperity for everyone” pipe dream.

On the front end, long ago, right here on Planet Earth humans had wonderful biological robots that did just what Dr. Venter would like these new ones to do. These servants of man spent tens of millions of years creating a cheap – and if intelligently used – non-polluting fuel. What happened?

Humans have burned through most of the easy-to-access Natural Capital including the work of these microscopic petrochemical beavers in a little over a hundred years. To make matters worse – much worse – humans polluted the air, water and marine resources in the process.

What is more, humans and their Organizations do not have the collective intelligence to conserve (as in to be “conservative” about resource consumption) what is left of the petrochemical reserves for important products like pharmaceuticals and specialty materials. Instead humans, especially in the US of A are wasting it on needless to-ing and fro-ing to overcome dysfunctional settlement human patterns.

Note: Human settlement patterns were made dysfunctional to meet the short-term interest of a few at the expense of the many and this in spite of what the market would support if citizens were offered a choice.

On the other end of the “freedom and unimaginable prosperity for everyone” pipe dream:

What has the last 35 years (since the 1973 Wake-Up Call that was ignored) of unprecedented wealth and consumption done for “freedom and unimaginable prosperity for everyone?”

Well for starters the top five percent of the economic and social Ziggurat have gotten much richer but not much happier.

The middle forty five percent are Running As Hard As They Cans (RHTCs). They have run up record setting debt and have been responsible for most of the resource burn. RHTCs are clearly not “better off” than their parents were in the 60s. Back then, one could pay for a year of college with a summers work fighting fires and clearing trails. One could buy a good car with a summers work in a grocery store.

RHTCs own bigger-than-they-need houses, many in dysfunctional locations, and own dozens of “must have” gadgets. No single person on the cutting edge of “prosperity” knows how to use all the “modern technology” that they already own, much less all the new technology and other consumption items that MainStream Media advertising tells them they “need.”

What is worse, these RHTCs are not better off – not better educated, not healthier, not longer living and not happier – than citizens in other First World nation-states that have spent half as much of that “cheap” fuel.

And the bottom 50 percent of the economic and social Ziggurat?

By some measures, some citizens are, thankfully, better off. But most are falling farther and farther behind. The Wealth Gap is widening at an alarming rate. The Quality of Life is eroding and the ladders to self improvement are rotting away.

You may have noticed that citizens are demanding “change.” If one understands what happens in democracies that create conditions of massive disparity it is clear that it will not be long before over 51 percent will vote for demigods who promise easy solutions. That will end the gravy train for all but those on the “central committee.”

Humans have not shown the ability to achieve “freedom and unimaginable prosperity for everyone” with the resources they have burned through since 1870. What would cause “Not Ed Risse,” or anyone else, to think they will do better with some new gift house, if one actually arrives?

What are the members of the League of Tiger Riders thinking?

What is even more scary is that everyday comes a new barrage of misinformation and emotionally loaded defenses of Business As Usual and the mantra of the Tiger Riders. (See the discussion of Institutions in THE ESTATES MATRIX.

Have a nice weekend.

EMR

Well, Wonkish Ones, I am departing today on the uniquely American hajj — the mandatory, once-in-a-lifetime trip with a 10-year-old to Disney World. I will be gone all next week. I may or may not have wireless Internet access, so I don’t know if I’ll be able to stay in touch.

But never fear, Ed Risse has promised two file a couple of posts, and Peter Galuszka has dangled the prospect of dropping a bombshell or two, time permitting. And, if you’re lucky, Norm Leahy will cross-post from Tertium Quids.

If any of you read Ed’s column, “Learning from the Mouse,” on Bacon’s Rebellion, you’ll know he’s referring to Disney World. I suspect that I’ll be far more interested in Disney’s transportation solutions than its jungle rides. With luck, I’ll be able to gather enough notes to submit a coherent column when I return.

Do not expect much help on Mobility and Access from the presumptive Donkey Clan presidential nominee based on today’s action.

Eric M. Weiss has the story in WaPo today: “Road Plus Rally Equals Snarls” Obama Event at (Nissan) Pavilion Promises Epic Back-Ups.”

You would not expect Sen Obama himself to understand the self-inflicted Mobility and Access disaster caused by approval of Nissan Pavilion over a decade ago – but his handlers, staff and the host / promoters from the Commonwealth?

The settlement pattern solution? Do not hold any event in the Pavilion.

The Autonomobile industry image solution? Get out of the naming “rights.”

The political image and turn a red state blue strategy? Do not hold this event in the Pavilion.

EMR