Bacon's Rebellion

  • Data Delayed Is Data Denied

    Posted on

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    James A. Bacon

    by James A. Bacon

    Last week I observed that the 2023 Crime in Virginia report, a compilation of the previous year’s crime statistics published by the Virginia State Police, used to come out in May. It is now August, and there’s still no sign of the document. The older the data gets, the more it loses relevance as a source for understanding current crime trends.

    Now the Richmond Times-Dispatch reports that it is “unclear” when the Virginia Department of Education (VDOE) will publish its annual update on public schools’ Standards of Learning (SOL) performance. In the past the document was released every August. According to the RTD, Superintendent of Public Instruction Lisa Coons notified school districts in June that the data would not be published until “the end of September,” although in response to the newspaper’s inquiry VDOE said the release could occur “much earlier.”

    The Office of the Chief Medical Examiner typically publishes its annual report in August. The CMO’s annual review of some 20,000 deaths is crucial to understanding important trends from fatal drug overdoses to maternal mortality. There are still more than two weeks to go in the month, so there’s hope that the Youngkin administration can keep to its schedule on this one.

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  • Miscellaneous Musings

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    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    Hanover County teenagers are not that clueless

    The members of the Pamunkey Regional Library (Hanover County has the most members) have gone to great lengths to assure that books with explicit sexual content are shelved in the adult section, rather than the “teen section.”

    A recent phone call to the library confirmed that any teenager with a library card could check out books from any section of the library.

    Striking a Nerve

    Bacon’s Rebellion has run two articles (here and here) this year disclosing how some agencies, despite not spending all their capital maintenance reserve (MR) appropriations for many years and thereby building up large balances, continue to receive MR appropriations, which only add to their unspent balance. In the capital budget development instructions for the next budget cycle recently sent to agencies by the Dept. of Planning and Budget, the following admonition was included:

    There will be an exercise this fall to better understand how well agencies are able to fully utilize their maintenance reserve funding.  Although specifics on this exercise will be forthcoming, the amount of uncommitted maintenance reserve funding at an agency will be taken into account for agencies requesting additional capital funding for large maintenance-type projects.

    This is the first time that this language, or anything similar to it, has appeared in the capital budget instructions and it could be viewed as a shot across the bow of agencies.  However, if carried out as indicated, this exercise will be a waste of time. It seems that agencies will be asked to identify uncommitted MR funding. The capital project staff of any agency worth its salt could show that every dime of its MR balance is committed. For example, there is no doubt that the Dept. of Corrections can show its balance of more than $100 million “committed” to legitimate projects. Left unsaid will be the fact that it would likely take the agency 10 years to spend that amount of money on maintenance reserve projects.

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  • A Tax Question

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    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    The numbers in the following scenario are not necessarily based in reality. They are used to illustrate a point.

    Mary Sue works as a housekeeper in a large hotel, cleaning guest rooms and changing bed linens. She makes $30,000 annually. Her employer deducts taxes, including Social Security, from her wages.

    Susie Que waits on tables in a busy restaurant next door to the hotel. She makes $30,000 annually. Of that amount, $10,000 is from her base pay and $20,000 is from tips. Her employer deducts taxes, including Social Security, from her wages and tip income. 

    Both Presidential candidates have proposed excluding tip income from taxation. Why should Mary Sue have to pay taxes on all her income, while a good part of Susie Que’s income is excluded from taxation?

  • Virginia Universities, Brace Yourselves for Mayhem

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    James A. Bacon

    by James A. Bacon

    In about two weeks summer break is over and students go back to college. You know what that means — they’ll be setting up their dorm rooms, reconnecting with friends, and organizing anti-Israel demonstrations.

    In an email letter to the University of Mary Washington Board of Visitors obtained by the Washington Free Beacon, Virginia Secretary of Education Aimee Guidera urged the Fredericksburg university to prepare for more protests. Mary Washington was the site of major demonstrations last academic year, along with Virginia Tech, Virginia Commonwealth University and the University of Virginia.

    “We have asked each institution to take proactive steps to update policies and improve communications channels before students return this fall,” Guidera wrote. And in bold face, she added, “I cannot overemphasize the critical importance of completing this necessary work within the next couple of weeks before students return to campus.“

    She continued:

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  • Jeanine’s Memes

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    James A. Bacon

    From The Bull Elephant

  • AP Flash: Sometimes the Weather is Hot!

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    by

    Steve Haner

    Today’s Richmond Times-Dispatch contained one of the most ridiculous statements of the blatantly obvious ever distributed by the once-venerable Associated Press. The headline: “Poll: Extreme Heat Impacting Most Americans.” We needed a poll to learn that.

    Except in the coolest of summers here in North America there are always days, or a stretch of days, when high temps and humidity force a change in behavior compared to nice days. Yet we get this as “news”:

    The poll found that about 7 in 10 Americans have been personally affected by extremely hot weather or extreme heat waves over the past five years…That makes extreme heat a more common experience than other weather events or natural disasters like wildfires, major droughts and hurricanes, which up to one-third of U.S. adults said they’ve been personally affected by.

    Wow. Hot summer days are more common than hurricanes. Science in action! Who knew? Then this:

    A sizable share of Americans, around 4 in 10, report that extreme heat has had at least a minor impact on their sleep, pets or exercise routine.

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  • What to Look for in 2023 Crime Report

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    James A. Bacon

    by James A. Bacon

    Data! We crave data!

    In past years the Virginia State Police has published its annual Crime in Virginia reports in May. For whatever reason, it’s mid-August and we have not yet seen the 2023 report. I may be the only person in Virginia who is agitated by the delay. Most media are satisfied with giving a top-line rendering of homicides and crime stats, but I like to dig deep into the statistics, and the older and more out-of-date the data gets, the more frustrated I get.

    Eventually, the report will be published, and I’ll relay key findings to Bacon’s Rebellion readers when it is.

    Based on anecdotal reading of news headlines, I expect that 2023 will show a meaningful drop in the homicide rate, and perhaps violent crime generally. We’ll see a continued decline in reports of drug offenses, many of which have been decriminalized. I think we’ll see a decline in non-drug-related non-violent crime, but I’m less certain.

    If violent crime rates drop, as I anticipate, the obvious question will be why. My instinct is to attribute any decline to a cessation of the defund-the-police rhetoric that demoralized police, hindered hiring, and sent police into a defensive crouch. The decline in police-hostile rhetoric since the 2000 George Floyd “mostly peaceful” protests is undeniable. Articles about police-department staffing shortages are rarer and less dire. In at least some locales, police have been adopting more aggressive tactics. But we shall see.

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  • Bacon Meme of the Week

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    James A. Bacon

  • Fiscal Train Wreck

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    James A. Bacon

    by James A. Bacon

    Think of the Washington Metro as a harbinger of the fiscal fate in store for the United States: it’s just a matter of time before the wheels fall off the subway car.

    Today The Washington Post reminds us that the Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) is running out of money. Its governing structure encompassing Virginia, Maryland and Washington, D.C., is dysfunctional. The federal COVID-relief spigot has stopped spewing cash. Labor contracts have driven up payroll costs. Ridership has plummeted since the COVID-19 epidemic. Repeated efforts to fix the quasi-government enterprise have failed utterly.

    Metro’s $2.4 billion annual operating budget faces a $750 million shortfall this year. Metro officials are projecting annual deficits of a billion dollars.

    Metro’s rail and bus system is critical transportation infrastructure for the Washington metropolitan area, so “the nation’s subway system” has always been able to shake down state, federal and local government for more money. But there may be a limit to how much state and local governments, which are constitutionally required to balance their budgets, are willing to pay — or will be able to pay in the not-so-distant future when federal aid dries up, as it inevitably will.

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  • The Flimflam Blues

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    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    Robin and Linda Williams

    by Dick Hall-Sizemore

    Just out in time for the election season is a new song by Robin and Linda Williams. The nationally-acclaimed husband-and-wife duo has been writing and recording songs and giving concerts all over the country, as well as abroad, for almost fifty years. They were long-time regulars on Garrison Keillor’s Prairie Home Companion. They live in Staunton. Unlike on some recent posts, this song was written by a real person and sung by real people.

  • Government as Landlord

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    James A. Bacon

    by James A. Bacon

    Nikki Jones. Photo credit: Washington Post

    If you were a tenant, who would you rather butt heads with? A slumlord or a public housing authority?

    Private-sector landlords have a bad reputation for going to court to evict their tenants. But it’s not clear that government is any kinder or more understanding.

    As COVID-era eviction moratoria expire, housing evictions are surging across the country, and Richmond is no exception. In just a nine-day span in March and April, more than 130 tenants were summoned to Richmond courts for eviction hearings, mostly for unpaid rent, reports the Post. A Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) audit found that 27% of RRHA’s rent was going uncollected in September 2022. About 60% of tenants owe back rent totaling $3 million.

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  • Roxane Gilmore RIP

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    James A. Bacon

    by James A. Bacon

    I was saddened to hear of the passing of Roxane Gatling Gilmore of pancreatic cancer. She is best known to Virginians as a former first lady, wife of former Governor Jim Gilmore. She was also known to students of classical history as a professor of classics at Randolph Macon College, where she taught Latin, Women in Ancient Literature, Roman History, Greek History, Epic Poetry, and Roman Britain. Her name, Roxane, suitably enough was that of the Bactrian princess whom Alexander the Great took as a wife.

    I knew Roxane at the University of Virginia where we palled around in the Young Americans for Freedom and the Jefferson Society Literary and Debating Society. YAF was no more popular on the Grounds then than it is today, but she was a principled and passionate conservative even as a young woman.

    I was shy and terrified of public speaking, which was a major drawback for anyone participating in The Jefferson Society. To become members, probationers had to give an oration to the group. I can’t even recall what I spoke about. I’m sure the speech was terrible — I knew from early on that I had no future as a politician. What I do remember a half century later is Roxane’s speech.

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  • We’re Transparent Only When It Suits Our Agenda

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    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    Jason Miyares

    by Dick Hall-Sizemore

    On Sept. 9, 2022, Attorney General Jason Miyares announced the creation of an “Election Integrity Unit” within his office. His press release contains this statement:

    I pledged during the 2021 campaign to work to increase transparency and strengthen confidence in our state elections. It should be easy to vote, and hard to cheat. The Election Integrity Unit will work to help to restore confidence in our democratic process in the Commonwealth. [Emphasis added]

    As I noted in Bacon’s Rebellion at the time, there was no indication that there had been any widespread or major election fraud in the Commonwealth or that Virginians’ confidence in its election system need restoring or strengthening. It was a political stunt—the “unit” consisted of lawyers already on the AG’s staff who would add election law violations to their list of assignments.

    An article in today’s Cardinal News highlights how the recent recount of the votes in the Republican primary for the 5th Congressional District illustrates the security and integrity of Virginia’s election system, a point made by Steve Haner on this blog a few days ago. The article describes all the safeguards in the state’s electoral process and quotes Susan Beals, the director of the Department of Elections and an appointee of Gov. Youngkin, “Once you vote in Virginia, your results are checked three times before the results are certified. Between that and the efforts at security of voting machines, security and custody of ballots, and the training that we provide to our election officials, I believe that Virginians can be confident in our elections.”

    In preparing the article, Cardinal News asked the Office of the Attorney General for data on voter fraud. Citing attorney-client privilege, the office declined the request. So much for transparency.

  • New PJM Capacity Costs Likely to Impact Dominion, Coop Ratepayers

    Posted on

    by

    Steve Haner

    By Steve Haner

    Just how much the huge increase in energy capacity prices within the PJM Dominion Zone next year will cost Virginians depends on a several variables. Do not accept claims of negligible impact on face value.

    In its most recent integrated resource plan filed with the State Corporation Commission, Dominion Energy Virginia projected it would need to secure 1,100 megawatts of outside capacity through the PJM regional power market for 2025.  At the new price in the most recent auction, should it do that, the cost would be more than $178 million.  At the old price it would have been only $12 million.

    A report on the issue in Virginia Mercury today quoted Dominion assuring its customers they would not see any impact on bills this year.  That states the obvious. The new $444 per megawatt day price doesn’t apply until July 2025.  The question is what the rate impact will be, if any, in future years. Especially if the next auction has similar results, the first big variable.

    Dominion told the Mercury and Utility Dive its ratepayers will be insulated from this because capacity purchases represent only 1% of its current costs.  But that 1% will be up to 14 times more expensive and Dominion’s own IRP projections show growing dependence on outside capacity suppliers, far more than in past years.  It shows that need to buy outside capacity despite a parallel buildout of new generation.

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  • Now They’re Gunning for Lindsey Burke

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    James A. Bacon

    by James A. Bacon

    Lindsey Burke

    Speaker of the House Don Scott, D-Portsmouth, has called for the resignation of Lindsey Burke, a conservative member of the George Mason University Board of Visitors, but Governor Glenn Youngkin is standing by her. Fortunately for Burke, her nomination was approved by the General Assembly earlier this year, and there isn’t much that Scott or anyone else can do about it.

    But Scott’s demand sends a signal that Democratic legislators are paying close attention to the shifting balance of power on the boards of Virginia’s public universities and are likely to give greater scrutiny to Youngkin’s nominees than in the past. The stakes are high as Youngkin appointees now comprise majorities on every public university board and are in a position for the first time to shape university policies.

    In a letter to Youngkin, Scott cited Burke’s authorship of the “Education” chapter in the Heritage Foundation’s 2025 Project, a document that burst into public view when regime media began denouncing it as a dystopian manifesto for a second Donald Trump presidency, even though Trump disowned the project.

    Scott criticized Burke’s arguments that the federal government should play a reduced role in education, which traditionally was the preserve of state and local government. In particular he took issue with what he characterized as her support for eliminating the federal Department of Education, her opposition to student loan forgiveness, and her call to roll back legal protections for LGBQT+ students and sexual assault survivors. Wrote Scott: “Her extreme views are alarming and contradicts [sic] the Commonwealth’s efforts.”

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Now Available

Book cover of 'Dust Mites: A Second American Revolution' by James A. Bacon, featuring astronauts planting a flag with a blue and white emblem on a lunar landscape, with Earth visible in the background.
For sale on Amazon.com

The year: 2075. The American colonies on the Moon are getting restless under Washington’s tyrannical rule….

This second edition of “Dust Mites” has a snazzy new cover, includes helpful lunar maps, and is 5,000 words tighter than the original. The sequel, “Trogs,” is scheduled for publication this summer.

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Bacon’s Rebellion is Virginia’s leading politically non-aligned portal for news, opinions and analysis about state, regional and local public policy. Read more about us here.

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