Bacon's Rebellion

Recount Proves Again Virginia Election Process is Sound

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by

Steve Haner
in

By Steve Haner

U.S. Representative Bob Good

Four votes. After weeks of dire warnings, paranoia and conspiracy chatter, a formal recount of the Bob Good-John McGuire congressional primary yesterday moved a total of four votes out of almost 63,000. McGuire was confirmed as the nominee for November by a narrow but solid margin of more than three hundred votes.

Soon to be former Congressman Good presumably will get a fat bill for the personnel, travel, legal and administrative costs of assembling and reviewing all the ballots in a room full of observers. Pay no attention if he squawks, because nobody actually familiar with Virginia’s elections saw this recount as anything but a waste of time. Virginia’s election process, with its reliance on paper ballots backing up the machine counts, is solid.

It is time for those in the Republican Party who continue to insist Virginia’s elections are insecure to just shut up. It was a bit of irony that as the media were reporting the smooth recount that confirmed the outcome, the Richmond Times-Dispatch was posting another guest column from one of the complainers. The “risk-limiting audit” process he advocates would be unnecessary. If there is a tight outcome with a reason to be concerned, the recount law remains in place.

Worse, such a mandate would continue to allow Virginia Republicans to delude themselves about why they lose elections. It cannot be that too many voters are rejecting their candidates or policies! Or they are not running good campaigns! With the major shift in momentum in the presidential race since President Joe Biden withdrew, the chance the GOP will be scrambling for excuses in Virginia is once again very high.

Concerned about election integrity? Governor Glenn Youngkin gave his fellow Republicans, all Virginians really, the best advice the other day. Become an election officer, take the training, sit through a few elections from the inside, and relax. If both parties have solid, honest folks in every precinct for every election, the outcome will be reliable. If observers are there for the review of provisional ballots, again, the outcome will be reliable.

The debate over how many early voting days we need is valid. Forty-five days is ridiculous and expensive. A future legislature might restore more identification requirements or reverse same-day registration. That is also a debatable point. But the votes once cast get accurately counted, with a recount left to squabbling over the rare questionable ballot.

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29 responses to “Recount Proves Again Virginia Election Process is Sound”

  1. DJRippert Avatar
    DJRippert

    Also – one recount in one primary election in one district proves nothing, statistically speaking.

  2. LarrytheG Avatar
    LarrytheG

    Any idea what this guy is talking about since you are an election guy?

    https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/b80f93907c2e9173c1f4df4448874470dc1ce22b55fa8ad6a014d687dd3e1a11.png

    https://richmond.com/opinion/column/virginia-elections-voters-confidence-risk-limiting-audits/article_5ad21f18-4dda-11ef-afc4-bb595d8402f1.html?utm_medium=social&utm_source=email&utm_campaign=user-share

    1. Stephen Haner Avatar
      Stephen Haner

      They don't trust the machines. They think outside forces will cause them to change votes. They want to compare the machine count to a handcount of the paper. Imagine that during a tight presidential contest, a la Bush v Gore.

      1. Matt Adams Avatar
        Matt Adams

        Hey at least with paper ballots we knew who won the next day, with the advent of machines we still can't say for a week.

      2. DJRippert Avatar
        DJRippert

        Everything with a chip is hackable. I don't know the architecture of the voting machines used in Virginia but I'd guess there is software in those machines from many vendors. If so, each vendor exposes the machine to "supply chain attack" risk. This has been successfully exploited against the US government.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_federal_government_data_breach

        While I'm sure that whoever makes and manages Virginia's voting machines thinks they have taken more than adequate precautions, I'm equally sure that the DoJ and Los Alamos felt the same way until it became obvious they had been hacked.

        I hope that Virginia does more than simply believe that any election which is not very close must be legitimate. There should be an in-depth statistical analysis by polling place, precinct, time of day, etc. Any pattern of statistical anomalies should be enough to prompt further review. There should be recounts between the paper ballots and randomly selected voting machines.

        Maybe this is being done already.

        I am not saying that Virginia elections are rigged or that the voting machines have been hacked.

        I am saying that anyone who doesn't " …trust the machines.", and believes, " … outside forces will cause them to change votes." is far from a conspiracy theorist.

        My, my …. wouldn't it be nice to have a Secretary of Technology at the Cabinet level in Virginia with enough experience and stature to be able to order and oversee an independent review of the technology processes and safeguards around those voting machines?

      3. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        is a "risk-limiting" audit a special kind of audit different from other types?

      4. Matt Adams Avatar
        Matt Adams

        Hey at least with paper ballots we knew who won the next day, with the advent of machines we still can't say for a week.

        1. WayneS Avatar
          WayneS

          Nice!

        2. Drive-by Commentator Avatar
          Drive-by Commentator

          Not so. The machines tally the paper ballots.

          For decades, test after test, example after example shows that machine-counting is accurate and all but immediate while hand-counting is slow and shot full or errors.

          1. Matt Adams Avatar
            Matt Adams

            “For decades, test after test, example after example shows that machine-counting is accurate and all but immediate while hand-counting is slow and shot full or errors.”

            Cool story, explain elections since 2000.

      5. DJRippert Avatar
        DJRippert

        Everything with a chip is hackable. I don't know the architecture of the voting machines used in Virginia but I'd guess there is software in those machines from many vendors. If so, each vendor exposes the machine to "supply chain attack" risk. This has been successfully exploited against the US government.

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_federal_government_data_breach

        While I'm sure that whoever makes and manages Virginia's voting machines thinks they have taken more than adequate precautions, I'm equally sure that the DoJ and Los Alamos felt the same way until it became obvious they had been hacked.

        I hope that Virginia does more than simply believe that any election which is not very close must be legitimate. There should be an in-depth statistical analysis by polling place, precinct, time of day, etc. Any pattern of statistical anomalies should be enough to prompt further review. There should be recounts between the paper ballots and randomly selected voting machines.

        Maybe this is being done already.

        I am not saying that Virginia elections are rigged or that the voting machines have been hacked.

        I am saying that anyone who doesn't " …trust the machines.", and believes, " … outside forces will cause them to change votes." is far from a conspiracy theorist.

        My, my …. wouldn't it be nice to have a Secretary of Technology at the Cabinet level in Virginia with enough experience and stature to be able to order and oversee an independent review of the technology processes and safeguards around those voting machines?

        1. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          "There should be an in-depth statistical analysis by polling place, precinct, time of day, etc. Any pattern of statistical anomalies should be enough to prompt further review. There should be recounts between the paper ballots and randomly selected voting machines.

          Maybe this is being done already."

          I totally agree with this.

          There are mathematical and statistical methods to validate and they should be done.

          I no longer work at the precincts but at the end of the day, we did some basic statistical validation for things like vote totals versus how many votes for each candidate, etc.

          Haner probably knows much more. He may be a precinct chief.

          You surely can hack a chip but the tabulators I've seen in Va are NOT connected to the internet at all. So the hack would have to occur in some other way and it would be easy to validate the tabulators aftern an update with 100 ballots or so to see how they got tallied.

          The poll books themselves are not online either.

          There is no connectivity for any of the voting equipment, though cell phones are allowed in the room and the observers from the Dems and GOP are getting vote tallies and reporting them via their phones. I believe the precinct volunteers are allowed cell phones also.

        2. LarrytheG Avatar
          LarrytheG

          re: " I am saying that anyone who doesn't " …trust the machines.", and believes, " … outside forces will cause them to change votes." is far from a conspiracy theorist."

          And they don't trust the govt either, right?

          so how do you fix that so they don't believe there ARE "outside forces who can change votes"?

          Is there a way or are some folks so far along thinking that way about a lot of things besides voting that it's not fixable?

  3. Nancy Naive Avatar
    Nancy Naive

    purple thumbs still unnecessary.

    1. WayneS Avatar
      WayneS

      Paper Ballots and Purple Thumbs. The only way to assure fair elections…

  4. WayneS Avatar
    WayneS

    Good bye Good.

    1. Stephen Haner Avatar
      Stephen Haner

      I consider it a waste of time and money that unnecessarily fed the mentality that cheating is rampant. Accussing fellow Republicans of gaming the election is hardly a party building exercise, as well.

  5. walter smith Avatar
    walter smith

    I don't think there is a problem with "counting" paper ballots, voted in person at precinct level with IDs. This result shows that. And the differences SHOULD be that minimal.
    Virginia is less "bad" than many States. For this primary, it was especially screwed up – the Left hates Good, the Left hates Trump, McCarthy hates Good, and Virginia has open primaries, so who knows how many Dems joined in to vote between tweedledum and Tweedledee as to the two candidates.
    My biggest issue in Virginia is WHY DOES FAIRFAX always turn in last? The richest most technologically advanced county always turns in last… It's almost like they are waiting to see how much they are short…

    Also, elsewhere, every loosening of controls everywhere in the procedure invites fraud, by design. Like the stupid amendment in Va – if we cheat enough to "win," you can't be suspicious. Well, quit acting like you want to cheat!

    The other problem, nationwide, is voter rolls and "ballots." How many illegals are registered? How many of them then vote? Are encouraged to vote? Have "ballots" mailed to them? The system is broken. The civilized world doesn't do this. France (and when do I compliment French efficiency?) knows in hours.

    Finally, the machines. If you can't see them for proprietary reasons, that is a problem. And these machines do more than read dots like the old multiple choice systems. Georgia has had real litigation from prior to 2020 showing how the machines are hacked. Of course you can't search it now because you get pages and pages of "fact checks" (from the people who assured us Hunter's lap top was fake and Covid's origin was zoonotic) saying the machines were not Venezuelan, but somewhere back then there was a trace from Venezuela to Dominion or Smartmatic or both. No matter what, transparency is needed.

  6. DJRippert Avatar
    DJRippert

    Also – one recount in one primary election in one district proves nothing, statistically speaking.

    1. Stephen Haner Avatar
      Stephen Haner

      No, but 40 years of watching has told me recounts move at most well under 1 tenth of 1% due to errors or challenged ballots. If the first count is a tie, or 15 votes apart, by all means do a recount. But 374 votes out of 63,000 was not going to change much and didn't.

  7. VaPragamtist Avatar
    VaPragamtist

    The ironic thing here is the Good supporters who've been calling McGuire and his supporters "RINOs." These same people say they're going to write in Good instead of voting for McGuire.

    Of course, per party rules, those supporting someone other than the party's candidate means they're no longer part of the Republican Party. Conservative, maybe. . .but if they identify as Republican, it's in name only.

  8. Dick Hall-Sizemore Avatar
    Dick Hall-Sizemore

    As far as cost is concerned, according to Cardinal News, the chief judge in the case estimated it would be $96,500. Good will be on the hook for that. https://cardinalnews.org/2024/07/31/elections-officials-ready-for-thursdays-5th-district-gop-primary-recount/

  9. walter smith Avatar
    walter smith

    the “election deniers” are the Dems. Why do the Dems fight to make it easier to cheat? Does that cause suspicion?
    https://pjmedia.com/matt-margolis/2024/08/02/appeals-court-paves-the-way-for-illegals-to-steal-election-in-arizona-n4931300
    All you need is 100,000 votes in swing states.
    Add in inaccurate voter rolls, and a bunch of ballots floating around and some bad actors. We are well past that.

    1. Stephen Haner Avatar
      Stephen Haner

      Practice the lines. You will need them for November. Should non-citizens vote? Hell no. But if the legislature or courts clear the way, that is not "cheating," that is "expanding the electorate." And most of those swing states in 2020 were so close far fewer than 100,000 "new voters" made the difference.

      1. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        I dunno about the other states, but I see this for Virginia, they're asking for social security numbers.

        https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/011d8087ecf9440195ad48aadc8a8aae4d8900f469b1142f0178c582ad1cff11.png
        Also don't know how the registrar goes about validating an application, especially one where there is no SS no provided. If no SS provided, I'd certainly be looking into it further. If there IS an SS provided, then verify it.

        I imagine there is some risk for undocumented.. getting
        deported by trying to register, never even getting to a precinct.

        At the precinct itself, we typically asked for Drivers licenses which I understand are not easy for undocumented to get.

        https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f44de91d1256ce794c74c14f3a4e99f1351bff5d07abe2ced26d1fca25cce3cd.png
        Again, if you are an undocumented, there is risk in applying for a regular DL and although you can get a DL as an undocumented, they are collecting information about you in terms of where you are located and living so again it's risky business especially if you don't speak English or speak it well.

        I'd support audits to find out and if there is a substantial number (enough to change elections), I'd certainly support further checks to detect and stop anyone from registering to start with, much less actually voting but I suspect this is really a non issue and folks are stoking it to essentially undermine faith in our elections and as an excuse to deny results if they do not win.

      2. LarrytheG Avatar
        LarrytheG

        I dunno about the other states, but I see this for Virginia, they're asking for social security numbers.

        https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/011d8087ecf9440195ad48aadc8a8aae4d8900f469b1142f0178c582ad1cff11.png
        Also don't know how the registrar goes about validating an application, especially one where there is no SS no provided. If no SS provided, I'd certainly be looking into it further. If there IS an SS provided, then verify it.

        I imagine there is some risk for undocumented.. getting
        deported by trying to register, never even getting to a precinct.

        At the precinct itself, we typically asked for Drivers licenses which I understand are not easy for undocumented to get.

        https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/f44de91d1256ce794c74c14f3a4e99f1351bff5d07abe2ced26d1fca25cce3cd.png
        Again, if you are an undocumented, there is risk in applying for a regular DL and although you can get a DL as an undocumented, they are collecting information about you in terms of where you are located and living so again it's risky business especially if you don't speak English or speak it well.

        I'd support audits to find out and if there is a substantial number (enough to change elections), I'd certainly support further checks to detect and stop anyone from registering to start with, much less actually voting but I suspect this is really a non issue and folks are stoking it to essentially undermine faith in our elections and as an excuse to deny results if they do not win.

  10. vicnicholls Avatar
    vicnicholls

    Considering how many illegals, kids under 18, etc. got handed over to registrars, I'd disagree with this assessment. Do you have analysis on state date, as I have, before making the statement?

    1. Stephen Haner Avatar
      Stephen Haner

      Of course you would. Nothing will persuade you. After years of trying to argue these points, I no longer feel compelled to give the fears any credence. Trump really lost. Move on. As a sworn election officer, you have the right to challenge any voter in your precinct if you have credible reason to believe them to be underage or voting in somebody else's name. You are the line of defense.

    2. Stephen Haner Avatar
      Stephen Haner

      Of course you would. Nothing will persuade you. After years of trying to argue these points, I no longer feel compelled to give the fears any credence. Trump really lost. Move on. As a sworn election officer, you have the right to challenge any voter in your precinct if you have credible reason to believe them to be underage or voting in somebody else's name. You are the line of defense.

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