by James A. Bacon
In past years the Virginia State Police has published its annual Crime in Virginia reports in May. For whatever reason, it’s mid-August and we have not yet seen the 2023 report. I may be the only person in Virginia who is agitated by the delay. Most media are satisfied with giving a top-line rendering of homicides and crime stats, but I like to dig deep into the statistics, and the older and more out-of-date the data gets, the more frustrated I get.
Eventually, the report will be published, and I’ll relay key findings to Bacon’s Rebellion readers when it is.
Based on anecdotal reading of news headlines, I expect that 2023 will show a meaningful drop in the homicide rate, and perhaps violent crime generally. We’ll see a continued decline in reports of drug offenses, many of which have been decriminalized. I think we’ll see a decline in non-drug-related non-violent crime, but I’m less certain.
If violent crime rates drop, as I anticipate, the obvious question will be why. My instinct is to attribute any decline to a cessation of the defund-the-police rhetoric that demoralized police, hindered hiring, and sent police into a defensive crouch. The decline in police-hostile rhetoric since the 2000 George Floyd “mostly peaceful” protests is undeniable. Articles about police-department staffing shortages are rarer and less dire. In at least some locales, police have been adopting more aggressive tactics. But we shall see.
Crime is a local phenomenon, and statewide trends can obscure important shifts taking place locally. Another big variable is the effectiveness of progressive prosecutors dedicated to the pursuit of social justice. Their rhetoric has been more subdued in the past year and a half. Have their prosecutorial policies changed? Have they succeeded in balancing their social-reform priorities with keeping communities safe?
One more interesting item: hate crimes. The last three months of 2023 coincided with the Hamas terror attacks on Israel, Israeli counterattacks on Hamas, pro-Palestinian protests in Virginia and nationally, and a sharpening of rhetoric. Will we see a spike in anti-Jewish and/or anti-Muslim hate crimes in Virginia, or has the nastiness been limited mostly to college communities?
One thing the VSP statistics cannot shed light on is the inherently political nature of the process of filing hate crime stats. How much discretion do local authorities have in deciding what to classify as a hate crime? Jewish students at the University of Virginia cite dozens of incidents of anti-Jewish words and deeds, but UVA authorities have dismissed them as undocumented or overblown. Will any alleged antisemitic hate crimes percolate through progressive police and commonwealth-attorney offices in the People’s Republic of Charlottesville and enter into the statewide crime stats?
So many questions. Please, VSP, publish your report soon.
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