Ask and ye shall receive. In the comments section of a recent post, Don Rippert makes an interesting observation: “The cue for a serious outbreak seems to be a rise in percent positive for those being tested. That’s why Michigan and Indiana are being watched closely right now. As I recall from the article I read once the positive percentage hits about 15% you can be assured that the sh** is about to hit the fan.”
What, then, is the trend in here in Virginia? The percentage of positive tests is running steadily higher, surpassing 15% at least twice in the past four days of data. If Don’s rule of thumb is correct, we’re near the point where the fecal matter soon will strike the rapidly revolving blade.
Any conclusion comes with caveats, mainly pertaining to the quality and consistency of the data. However, holding all other things were equal, one would expect the percentage of positives should be heading down. With access to very few tests early on, medical practitioners hewed to strict testing protocols. Only patients with symptoms most closely matching those of COVID-19 were tested. One would expect a high rate of hits. As testing kits become more readily available, they began administering somewhat more broadly — targeting front-line healthcare workers, even those who don’t show symptoms.
Duck, you may not like what’s coming. — JAB
