Nationally, the experts are saying that the COVID-19 virus shows indications of leveling off. There may be signs of the same here in Virginia, but they are subtle. The latest numbers from the Virginia Department of Health and the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association show a steady increase in the number of confirmed cases, hospitalizations and deaths — 34 deaths yesterday, to be precise, bringing the total to 109. If I reckon correctly, that is the biggest one-day death toll in Virginia to date.
Fortunately, there is no evidence yet that hospitals are being overwhelmed from a lack of ICU beds or ventilators — the number of COVID-19 patients in ICUs edged up nine to 469, while the number of patients on ventilators actually declined to 285. Even the number of hospitals experiencing shortages of personal protective equipment declined from 11 two days ago to only seven yesterday.
Total COVID-19 cases: 4,042, up 397 from the previous day
Total hospitalizations: 685, up 70 from the previous day
ICUs in use: 469, up 11
Ventilators in use: 285, down eight
Total deaths: 109, up 34
Total tests: 33,026, up 2,381
% tests positive: 16.7%
Doubling data. John Butcher has adopted a new method for determining the “doubling” rate for key metrics. Previously, he had calculated the rate based on the numbers he had been compiling from the beginning. The result was a stable number that changed only incrementally. Now he has moved to a dynamic number based on the past four days of data.
Case count: 6.3 days
Hospitalizations: 6.6 days
Deaths: 3.0 days
By this reckoning, the spread of the virus is substantial, but it’s not nearly as out of control as implied by the previous methodology.
