Hospital beds: Not enough
by James C. Sherlock
Virginians have read my complaints for years that Virginia’s Certificate of Public Need (COPN) law has artificially reduced supply of healthcare facilities in Virginia, driving up prices and reducing access. Legislators who believe as I do have not won the argument for the past 30 years in Richmond.
Unfortunately, I offer the tragic proof that the hospital industry can figure out how many hospitals, hospital beds and ICU beds are needed far better than bureaucrats can.
From Becker’s Hospital Review[1] 22 hours ago:
The demand for hospital beds in the U.S. is projected to far exceed capacity by mid-April, according to an analysis from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation in Seattle. … According to the model, 20 states will face a shortage of ICU beds when COVID-19 peaks.
Thirty five states and Washington, D.C., operated a Certificate of Public Need[2] program as of December 2019.
Seventeen of the 20 states that are projected to have ICU shortages have COPN programs, including Virginia.[3] Those 17 states are projected to be short 20,405 ICU beds, including the projection of 231 too few in Virginia.
The three states which have no COPN laws and projected shortages need 240 ICU beds.
You might think, “Well, all the biggest states have CON laws and that skewed the results.” You would be wrong. Neither California nor Texas has a COPN law, and neither projects a shortage.
You may also think that numbers like this will automatically result in Virginia’s repeal of COPN next session. You are wrong there, too. It will be a bitter fight and if I had to bet, I’d wager COPN emerges either unscathed or strengthened. Such is the power of the state-protected incumbent hospitals in Virginia.
[1]https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/patient-flow/20-states-to-face-icu-bed-shortages-when-covid-19-peaks-analysis-finds.html
[2] https://www.ncsl.org/research/health/con-certificate-of-need-state-laws.aspx
[3] Ibid.
