by James A. Bacon
It has been nearly three weeks since the Omicron variant of COVID-19 reached Virginia. Nationally, Omicron now accounts for almost three out of four new COVID cases. So, how’s Virginia doing?
Here is the number of cases reported on the Virginia Department of Health COVID dashboard around noon today. The red oval draws attention to the past three weeks. Clearly, the number of COVID cases is spiking again. While there may be a seasonal element here — COVID cases started rising steeply in November 2020 as well — we can be fairly confident that the spread of the hyper-transmissible Omicron variant is a factor.
Virginia also has seen a rise in hospitalizations, as seen here:
The increase in the number of hospitalizations is less pronounced than the number of cases, which might reflect the fact that Omicron, though more transmissible, is less virulent than the Delta variant it is displacing. However, the muted increase also might simply reflect a lag between the time an individual confirms the presence of the virus in a test and the time he or she gets sick enough to warrant checking into a hospital. The Omicron-is-less-virulent-than-Delta theory comes from hospitalization rates in South Africa, where the variant first surfaced. South Africans are significantly younger and less prone to obesity than Americans, both of which are major risk factors, so we cannot assume that we will see the same benign pattern here.
The data do not allow us to draw even preliminary conclusions about the impact of Omicron on mortality rates in the Old Dominion. The VDH dashboard has updated deaths only through Nov. 20.
There is one other data point worth mentioning. Vaccination status appears to make a big difference in Virginians’ likelihood of contracting the virus.
As can be seen in this graph, illness among the vaccinated has ticked slightly higher but sickness among the unvaccinated has skyrocketed. That strikes me as a pretty good reason to get vaccinated.
A lot of Bacon’s Rebellion readers don’t want the government dictating what they do with their bodies. I get it. I don’t think the government should be mandating vaccines either. But I urge you to voluntarily get the jab.
Think of it this way: Liberals, who are more likely to get the vaccine, are less likely to die — thus more able to vote next year. Conservatives, who spurn the vaccine are more likely to die. And you can’t vote when you’re dead (except in Chicago)! Therefore, if you want the Sons of Light to retake the federal government from the Sons of Darkness in 2022, maximize the odds that you’ll be around to vote. Get the vaccine!
