While transportation and land use reform crashed and burned in the General Assembly this week, the traveling train wreck called Rail to Dulles lumbers ahead unchecked. As part of a long-term effort to get our arms around the most expensive public works project in Virginia history, I assigned writer Peter Galuszka to describe the major interest groups at work and what their stakes are in the $4 billion (before cost overruns) Metro extension.
The job is so big — it requires a major investigative project beyond our resources — that we can provide no more than a pencil sketch of the various constituencies. But Peter has done a better job of pulling together the strands of this complex story than anyone else I have seen. You can read his work here:
Follow the Money
Rail-to-Dulles is the most expensive public works project in Virginia history. To understand the maneuvering over what gets built and who pays for it, start by untangling the web of special interests.
by Peter Galuszka
In the course of his reporting, Peter surfaced a key issue that has not, to my mind, received sufficient attention from the Mainstream Media (although a number of bloggers have touched upon it). The issue is peripheral to his article, so I raise it here: What will the project ultimately cost?
This question is crucial because Gov. Timothy M. Kaine’s justification for overturning the tunnel option through Tysons Corner is that the extra $200 million threatened to torpedo federal funding. Rail to Dulles was already marginal as determined by the federal government’s cost-benefit methodology. The state could not afford to load any more costs into the project.
But consider: The $4 billion estimate, calculated in an an environmental impact study, is now four years old. Furthermore, while we have reasonably good estimates for Phase One of the project, the Phase Two estimates are very sketchy. Assuming that construction costs have been increasing at the rate of five percent annually, it may be more realistic to assume that the project could cost around $4.8 billion — and that’s not accounting for any mission creep, change orders, miscalculations or other surprises. We won’t know for sure until more definitive engineering/design work is completed.
If that back-of-the-envelope calculation is even in the ballpark, where is that $800 million going to come from? What would a $4.8 billion price tag do to the federal cost-benefit analysis? Could Rail to Dulles still could lose its federal funding? Would that scuttle the entire project? Perhaps Bacon’s Rebellion readers could shed some insight.
