I’ve divined hopeful signs in past statistical updates, only to have my hopes dashed. So, take this with a grain of salt. But Virginia may be turning a corner. Consider this nugget from the COVID-19 numbers reported by the Virginia Department of Health this morning: The number of confirmed new patients Tuesday was only a hair higher yesterday than five days previously: 312 new cases reported versus 306.
John Butcher charts the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases on a logarithmic scale. A straight line indicates that the virus is spreading at a consistent exponential rate. His graph below suggests that the curve may be bending — the virus is still spreading, but the rate of the spread is slowing. As John puts it: “I’m willing to say the exponential phase is ending.”
If you’re of a more pessimistic frame of mind, you can always point to the metric of patients admitted to Virginia hospitals. That chart shows little sign of slowing. The total number of hospitalizations passed the 600 mark yesterday.
Clarification: This chart shows the number of NEW hospitalizations.
(Some hospitalized patients have either died or been released, so this does not reflect the current number of COVID-19 patients in hospitals right now. Also, due to differences in methodologies, the VDH data for hospitalizations is lower than the number published daily by the Virginia Hospital and Healthcare Association.)
Here’s a recap of key metrics based on VDH data, supplemented by VHHA data for ICUs and ventilators.
Total COVID-19 cases: 3,645, up 312 from the previous day
Total hospitalizations: 615, up 52 from the previous day
ICUs in use: 458, up 50
Ventilators in use: 293, up ten
Total deaths: 75, up 12
Total tests: 30,645, up 2,000
% tests positive: 15.6%
