Category Archives: Health Care

Over the last few days I almost forgot we’re in the middle of a COVID-19 epidemic. Maybe that’s because thousands of people have been marching down the streets of Richmond and other Virginia cities in defiance of Governor Ralph Northam’s prohibition on gatherings of more than 10 people. But I will give the protesters credit. Many of them — and I’m not just talking about the Antifa wannabes — were wearing masks.

As it turns out, no epidemiological harm is likely to come from the mass gatherings. The spread of COVID-19 is on the downward slide, at least for now.

As can be seen in John Butcher’s chart above, the number of COVID-19 patients treated in Virginia hospitals is the lowest it’s been since late April. Likewise, as can be seen in the graph below, COVID-19-related deaths have declined markedly as well. Continue reading →

Highlights from today’s data dump of Virginia COVID-19 data:

Total number of tests: 303,430
Total number of confirmed COVID-19 cases: 43,611
Percentage of tests that turned out positive: 14.3%

Total hospitalizations: 4,601
Percentage of confirmed cases that require hospitalization: 10.5%
Percentage of COVID-19 cases, known and unknown, requiring hospitalization: no one knows — but smaller than 10.5%.

Total deaths: 1,370
Deaths as percentage of confirmed cases: 1.1%
Percentage of COVID-19 cases, known and unknown, ending in death: No one knows, but smaller than 1.1%.

— JAB

Here’s the latest from the Excel spreadsheet of John Butcher, publisher of Cranky’s blog: Daily COVID-19 hospitalizations are creeping back up, as can be seen in the graph above. And the total number of COVID-19 patients is rebounding as well as shown in the graph below: Continue reading →

Source: Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 dashboard

by James A. Bacon

The daily numbers reported about COVID-19 in Virginia are volatile, and it would be imprudent to read too much into a single day’s statistics. But two numbers published on public dashboards this morning are symbolic of the true nature of the epidemic.

The first data point is the number of new COVID-19 deaths reported: 20.

The second is the number of of new deaths reported for long-term-care facilities: 19.

In other words, 95% of the deaths reported were of people living in long-term-care facilities. That’s just one day, to be sure, and there have been days when nursing homes accounted for only one-third of total deaths. Over the course of the epidemic, the percentage is 57%.

Surely, Governor Ralph Northam is aware of these numbers, even as he mandates the wearing of facial coverings and signs an executive order extending the state of emergency indefinitely. What’s so frustrating is how little he has had to say about the nursing home outbreaks and what he plans to do about them. At the risk of sounding like a broken record, let me repeat: The COVID-19 epidemic is mostly a nursing home epidemic. Continue reading →

Source: Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 dashboard

by James A. Bacon

Later today Governor Ralph Northam will issue his mask-wearing mandate for Virginians. I’ll reserve comment about the details of the plan for when I see them. In the meantime, it is worth considering what data he might draw upon to justify his measures.

The Virginia Department of Health COVID-19 dashboard highlights several “key measures.” One, seen above, tracks the total number of COVID-19 cases. This particular graph strongly suggests that the COVID-19 epidemic is spreading as rapidly as it ever was — indeed it has ticked back up in recent days.

Reinforcing this impression, today’s VDH dashboard reports a record increase of new confirmed COVID-19 cases — 1,615. Data compiled over the weekend is subject to jinky behavior due to reporting delays, but that number follows 1,483 cases the day before. So, if the Governor wants to make the case that the coronavirus is still spreading, there is data to support him. The Washington Post, which can scarcely keep its pro-shutdown sentiments out of its news articles, picked up on the latter number in its news headline this morning — and we all know that Northam (or his people) pay close attention to the WaPo’s coverage.

However… Continue reading →

by James A. Bacon

A recent Columbia University study generated headlines after concluding that 55% of deaths reported as of May 3 could have been avoided if stricter social-distancing controls had been implemented nationally just one week earlier.

Responding to that story, President Trump created a mini-furor by engaging in his usual ad hominem attacks. Rather than addressing the underlying facts and logic in the study, he called Columbia a “liberal, disgraceful institution” — as if labeling the institution ideologically did anything to rebut the rigor of the study.

A nuanced critic of the study might have questioned the validity of using epidemiological models to run counter-factual simulations. The outcome of models like the one used by the Columbia authors depends upon an array of critical assumptions — often debatable — about the relationship between different variables. As the old saying goes, Garbage In, Garbage Out.

Whatever the merits of the particular study in question, the flap revealed that the U.S. academic and media establishments now accept counter-factual simulations as legitimate news. Perhaps someone could build a model to answer a different counter-factual question: Given the fact that most COVID-19 deaths have involved elderly patients with one or more coexisting conditions, how many would have died anyway? Continue reading →