by James A. Bacon
Forgive me for bragging, but if I don’t pat my own back, no one else will do it for me. The latest dismal trend highlighted in the nation’s newspapers, a rising death rate among white, middle-aged Americans, is one that I saw coming five years ago when I wrote “Boomergeddon.” (Technically, I predicted a rising death rate for all Americans, not just white Americans. But trust me, other racial/ethnic groups will follow.)
In a “startling” reversal, reports the Wall Street Journal, worsening substance abuse, mental health and chronic diseases are offsetting positive drivers of midlife mortality such as declining rates of lung cancer. A new study by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences said that the once-inexorable decline in mortality rates among American 45- to 54-year-old whites began reversing in the late 1990s in defiance of trends in other advanced countries and the progress made by American blacks and Hispanics. The uptick was especially notable for less educated whites, but it was visible among better educated whites as well.
The fiscal implications are worrisome. Writes the WSJ: “The authors warned that by the time white people in this age group are eligible for Medicare they could be in worse health than the current elderly generation. That means they could require more expensive care.”
That’s precisely what I worried about in “Boomergeddon.” Everyone knew and appreciated in 2010 when I wrote the book that the population was rapidly aging, and that the massive Baby Boomer cohort was about to swamp the Social Security-Medicare safety net. Largely unappreciated then, by many metrics Boomers’ health was worse than that of their elders — largely because of lifestyle choices. The incidence of obesity and diabetes was increasing among middle-aged Boomers compared to previous generations, but so was Hepatitus C, substance abuse, and sexually transmitted diseases including HIV/AIDS. I called it the “sex, drugs and rocky road ice cream” phenomenon.
As I wrote then, “The medical costs arising from [Boomers’] life-long self-indulgence — if it feels good, do it! — will be significantly higher than they were for those who came before them.”
The 45- to 55-year-old cohort belongs to Generation X for the most part, not the Boomers, but the outlook for them is looking equally grim. Not only are Americans failing to attain the living standards of their parents, they’re not even living longer.
