Today’s WaPo reports that federal Agencies are going ahead with homeowner bailouts without answering the questions raised in yesterdays “WaPo and IHT…” post.

It is clear that the intent is to spread around the bailout money to benefit:

Investment banks
Commercial banks
Credit card companies
Hedge fund managers and investors
Insurance Companies
Fannie and Freddie
Autonomobile manufacturers
(no need to help Exxon / Mobile yet but in a few weeks…)

and all the others that took actions over the past 20 years that are the prime drivers of settlement pattern dysfunction (the Helter Skelter Crisis) and thus Mobility and Access Crisis and the Affordable and Accessible Housing Crisis, the Wealth Gap Crisis…

In the Short Run:

Over cappuccino, EMR’s best friend said it clearly: “They are rewarding those who did stupid things and punishing those who did the right thing with respect to savings, investment and retirement planning.

Those who invested in the right size house in the right location and who crafted a lifestyle that does not depend on Large, Private Vehicles for their every need are still being protected by THE MARKET for now.

The location and details of mortgage foreclosures (on a Cluster by Cluster, Neighborhood by Neighborhood and Village by Village basis and NOT on a municipal jurisdiction by municipal jurisdiction basis) document this fact.

But how long will this protection last with unsound Agency intervention to save Tiger Riders on a massive scale? Those who fear the Donkey Clan will socialize everything can be at ease, the Elephant Clan administration is already selling off the “means of production” AND consumption.

In the Long Run:

As we said in “WaPo and IHT …”

The longer that Fundamental Transformation of settlement patterns (and Fundamental Transformation of governance structures) is postponed, the more painful and less probable any real “recovery” will be.

It looks like it will be a while before there is light at the end of the tunnel. Both presidential candidates and every Virginia candidate running for the Senate or the House are still talking about going back to “economic growth” rather than finding a sustainable path.

Note to Larry Gross: On the path understanding human settlement patterns one of the few things that is less useful than insisting on using Core Confusing Words is to intentionally misuse terms that are clearly defined. Case in point your intentional misuse of: Urban Support Regions. You intentionally misuse words, phrases and theses and then accuse EMR of being obscure, incorrect or stupid.

If you understood the New Urban Region Conceptual Framework you would know that the graphic you cite on “WaPo and IHT…” supports exactly what EMR has been saying for two decades and for six years at Bacons Rebellion.

EMR does not have time to go back and repeat it for you again. If you are genuinely interested in understanding – that becomes more and more doubtful – you can check out EMR’s repeated answers to your questions over the past – it seems like forever – years.

And for “charlie:” Sorry, “charlie” they only accept smart tuna who understand human settlement patterns. Leverage is really important as we note in “The Shape of the Future” and it gets speculators in trouble all the time but it is the settlement patterns agglomerated over the past 80 years – THE HELTER SKELTER CRISIS – that is the root cause of economic, social and physical dysfunction in contemporary society.


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  1. Ray Hyde Avatar

    “They are rewarding those who did stupid things and punishing those who did the right thing with respect to savings, investment and retirement planning.”

    How is it stupid to do those things that get you rewarded? Would you rather be stupid and walthy or smart, and saving all the things that are going to get stolen from you anyway?

    Think of some stupid people that never graduated from college: Warren Buffet, Ted Turner, Mark Greffin, Larry Ellison, Bill Gates.

    The stupid people in this show are those that are doing the rewarding – and those that got them elected.

    Since the government is a third of the economy and consumers are most fo the rest of it, that would appear to include almost everyone.


  2. “A task force appointed by the Fairfax Board of Supervisors has recommended that the county rewrite its zoning map to allow for more offices, shops, hotels and restaurants, as well as a modest increase in residential development in the Fort Belvoir and Springfield areas.”

    State officials, however, say that the amount of development recommended is excessive and that because it is not all concentrated around mass transit, it could have disastrous consequences for Interstate 95, the Fairfax County Parkway and Route 1. County planners have estimated that space is needed for 7,500 contractors to support Fort Belvoir, but the task force has recommended enough development to create more than 23,500 additional jobs in the area. That’s about equivalent to the number of people who work at the Pentagon.

    “We know for a fact there’s not enough rail, not enough highway and not enough bus service to handle existing uses, let alone planned uses,” Virginia Transportation Secretary Pierce R. Homer said. “The traffic conditions today [on the Fairfax County Parkway] are deplorable. “

    sounds like Yogi Berra’s Deja vu all over again….aka Tysons.

    I find it really curious that you have the Fairfax county planners – the same folks who say they want to redefine Tysons to be a more functional, compact type of development… friendlier to ped and mass transit….

    … these same planners… proposing more development in another corridor …which the State Department of Transportation is expressing concern about the automobile impacts….

    I would think this “news” would be prime Bacon’s Rebellion fodder… you know.. better development… places where folks can live, work and play without driving the daylights out of their automobiles…

    and … the best we can do … is babble on about core confusing words and Obamaphobia running wild….

    tsk tsk

    and Ray.. hey guy… here they are.. they’re gonna REZONE… as in UPZONE… you know.. the OPPOSITE of restricting property rights… you should be all over this….

  3. “Many Homeowners Still in Denial About Prices”

    “This quarter, 49 percent of homeowners said they think their own home’s value has increased or stayed the same over the past year. However, nearly three-quarters (74 percent) of homes have lost value in the past 12 months, according to preliminary analysis of Zillow’s Q3 Real Estate Market Reports, which will be released Nov. 12…

    Homeowners are not quite as confident as they were in the second quarter, when 62 percent said their homes either increased in value or remained the same, but a significant gap between the reality of home values and homeowners’ perceptions persists.”

    “After one of the most turbulent quarters in history for the U.S. economy and housing market, you’d expect the reality of dropping home values to start sinking in,” said Dr. Stan Humphries, Zillow vice president of data and analytics. “We are seeing some movement toward more accurate perceptions of home value declines, but there’s still a significant gap between reality and perception. We’re seeing a fascinating distinction in consumer psychology – on the one hand, homeowners appear to understand the reality of today’s economy and are curbing their household spending, but on the other hand they still aren’t ready to admit that these woes might extend to their own homes. There’s clearly still some denial.”


  4. Ray Hyde Avatar

    Larry is right about home values. We still have a lot of people underwater, and in danger of becoming underwater.

    Not all of these people made deliberately bad judgements: they counted on raises that may not now happen or jobs that disappeared.

    But, if you want a home, there are plenty of bargains around now, even after you count in health costs of commuting. What EMR says is the wrong place is not up to him, it’s up to the buyers.

    So far, the buyers don’t (all) agree with EMR, as he never fails to point out. You would think he’d get the message.


    Considering my Alexandria location, no matter what BRAC does in Alexandria or Springfield will be good for me. Springfield has languished for a long time. I’m not sure what it will take to turn it around, but strictly speaking Tysons/Belvoir it has as much or more going for it than Tyson’s.

    When the tolls hit, there will be more incentive to move out to short stop them. When Prince George’s finally develops there will be affordable housing within easy commute.

    Some kind of transportation improvements will need to be made, along with a lot of other stuff. Existing residents like myself will clean up, no doubt, as will business owners occupying what will become prime locations. Question is, how much will they contribute to the upgrades they benefit from? How much have they already paid for decades for upgrades for others?

    I recently had my first trip through the new Springfield interchange. It is either amazing or stark raving mad, depending on your point of view. It is definitely and improvement, but for how long?

    Also had my frist trip on Rte 15 and Gum Springs Rd in a long time. Virtually everything from Chantilly to Gainseville is construction and housing madness. Cement trucks are still making deliveries at 6:00 PM. No sign of a slump around there. Rte 15 has a sign saying “Rte 15 widening proudly funded by Toll Brothers.”

    I have neither answers nor opinions, just observations.


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