Graphic credit: StatChat
by James A. Bacon
National population migration surveys invariably show Fairfax County to be a big loser. The county experienced a net domestic out-migration of 16,800 in 2015 and 46,500 since 2010. When viewed in isolation the numbers make Virginia’s largest locality look like a war zone — call it Little Aleppo. Yet somehow the population continues to increase, and somehow the county manages to support one of the highest per capita incomes of any jurisdiction in the United States.
Writing at the StatChat blog, Luke Juday explores the seeming contradiction by taking a look at New York City, which shows a similar profile of massive domestic out-migration and increasing population. By way of explanation, he points to two trends: foreign in-migration and natural increase. In New York, a wave of immigrants more than replaced the native-born Americans who were leaving. Furthermore, the demographic profile skews younger than for the nation — and people in their 20s and 30s have more children than people in their 50s and 60s.
New York is not turning into another Detroit as its native-born population moves away. Sky-high real estate prices may drive out the middle class, but unaffordable real estate is a sure sign of high demand. As Juday points out: “Its population continues to climb despite an astronomical cost of living that suggests even more people would live there if they could.”
That New York is a gateway for immigration is a secret to no one. But the idea that it is a young city is less widely recognized. Writes Juday:
New York is a young city compared to the nation as a whole. Like most cities, it has a disproportionate share of young adults in their 20’s and early 30’s. Young adults are important in demographics for two reasons. First is what they don’t do: die. A population of 20-somethings will have far fewer deaths in any given year than a population of 60-somethings. Second is what they do: have babies. Women between the ages of 20 and 35 are in their prime childbearing years. Unsurprisingly, places that have a lot of women in their prime childbearing years tend to have a lot of births as well.
The people moving to New York are younger than those who are leaving. Think college graduates seeking the bright-lights-big-city in Wall Street, Madison Avenue or Broadway while snow birds retire to Boca Raton. (The numbers also suggest that native-born households in the child-raising years, along with their children, also leave the city — presumably to a less hectic life outside the urban core.) The end result is a city with a high proportion of young, creative, entrepreneurially vital people in their 20s and 30s.
Unfortunately, Juday does not close the loop in his blog post. Is what’s happening in New York also happening in Fairfax County? Well, after accounting for foreign immigration, Fairfax County has actually experienced a net in-migration of 9,200 since 2010, so at least one of New York City’s demographic drivers is the same. Juday does not tell us whether Fairfax has a similar population profile heavily weighted by people in their 20s and 30s. But he promises to reveal more in a later post.
