Virginia’s economy and housing sector will remain sluggish for the rest of 2008 but the state’s economic performance should pick up in 2009, forecasts Chmura Economics & Analytics in a study commissioned by the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy.
While the state economy will slow, Virginia should skate past a recession, the report concludes. “Employment growth is expected to slow to 0.5 percent in 2008 before accelerating to 2.9 percent in 2009,” says the study. “Wages and salaries will slow to 3.9 percent amid the business cycle downturn in 2008 before accelerating to 5.0 percent in 2009.”
But there will be continued pockets of weakness. Retail spending may lag the recovery. Furthermore, building permits could slide another 10.4 percent in 2009 after taking a 19.4 percent tumble this year.
Here is the breakdown by MSA for 2008 and 2009 combined:
Blacksburg
Employment: 0.1 %
Wages/salaries: 7.1%
Bristol
Employment: 0.1%
Wages/salaries: 3.9%
Charlottesville
Employment: 4.0%
Wages/salaries: 11.9%
Danville
Employment: -1.0%
Wages/salaries: 3.0%
Hampton Roads
Employment: 1.3 %
Wages/salaries: 10.3%
Harrisonburg
Employment: 3.2%
Wages/salaries: 6.0%
Northern Virginia
Employment: 2.2%
Wages/salaries: 9.1%
Richmond
Employment: 1.2%
Wages/salaries: 8.5%
Roanoke
Employment: 0.4%
Wages/salaries: 5.5%
Winchester
Employment: 3.5%
Wages/salaries: 10.7%
Non-MSAs
Employment: -1.2%
Wages/salaries: 11.3%
Appendix: TooManyTaxes has asked me to make available a chart entitled, “Virginia Counties and Cities Reducing Their Local Contribution to Public Education in FY 2006,” by Chris Braunlich, as supplementary evidence for a thread of comments about this post.
