Universal Pre-K: $300 Million a Year or $850 Million a Year?

Chris Braunlich, a vice president of the Thomas Jefferson Institute for Public Policy, a regular contributor to the Bacon’s Rebellion e-zine and a candidate for the Fairfax County School board, recently issued the following statement about Gov. Timothy M. Kaine’s universal pre-k initiative. I cannot improve upon it, so I reproduce it here nearly in full.

As Governor Tim Kaine prepares to launch his program for universal preschool, it is worthwhile to underscore some of the statistics coming from a recent study by economist Robert Lynch for the Economic Policy Institute – an organization advocating universal preschool.

In his study, Dr. Lynch examined the costs and benefits of high quality preschool programs and their positive impact over time on federal and state budgets, crime costs, and earnings. Among his findings specifically for Virginia:

  • Quality universal pre-k will cost $6,000 per child. This is 20 percent higher than Governor Kaine’s estimate of $5,000, but is in line with most costs around the country. The “Start Strong Council” notes a current cost of $7,820 per child for full-time licensed child care.
  • The annual cost of a fully-phased in universal pre-k program in 2008 will be $847 million. This exceeds Governor Kaine’s projections by more than a half billion dollars.
  • It will take 11 years for the program to start paying for itself in societal benefits. These benefits include reduced crime costs, increased earnings of participating children and adults, and a greater commitment to marriage.
  • It will take 24 years for the program to pay for itself in budget benefits alone.
  • Advocates for universal preschool base their claims for a “business case” on three long-term longitudinal studies. But each of those studies involved only highly at-risk students who were massively economically disadvantaged and at risk for retarded intellectual functioning. The programs involved frequently began at four months of age and included free medical care, home visitations, health screening, speech therapy and other social services.

    To extrapolate those students and those services to the general population and assume the same benefits as justification for a universal program is disingenuous at best.

    Before the Virginia General Assembly commits to a new state entitlement program, it should carefully consider the real costs and the questionable benefits — including those costs likely to be imposed on local governments as part of the shared cost.