According to the Washington Post, six of the 17 House Republican delegates who supported state tax increases last year will be challenged in the primaries. Challengers have until Wednesday to submit a petition with 125 or more valid signatures, so one or two more candidates may surface, but the hope of some in the anti-tax movement that all 17 would face opposition is likely to go unfulfilled.
Revolutionary upheaval in the Republican Party does not seem in the cards. This election is shaping up as more of a bush war–a nuisance to the forces of Business As Usual, but hardly a threat. Given the immense advantages of incumbency, the anti-tax insurgents will be lucky to bump off any of the 17.
As one who believes that the 2004 tax increases were unjustified, I’m amazed at the lack of discontent. I suppose you can attribute the quietude to the political genius of Mark Warner, who jiggered his tax “restructuring” so that a significant majority of Virginians would come out ahead, even if only marginally. Meanwhile, homeowners may be distressed about rising property taxes, but they can’t blame their General Assembly delegates for the sins of their local boards of supervisors.
The other failure so far is the inability of the anti-tax forces to spin a compelling anti-tax narrative. The fact is, the Commonwealth is facing real problems. Transportation, education, Medicaid, the environment, the mentally disabled, etc. How do we address those very real problems without raising taxes? The insurrectionists in the GOP just don’t have a good answer.
