by James A. Bacon
Several years ago, I gave a speech at a Virginia Department of Transportation event calling into question travel-demand forecasts based upon the extrapolation of past trends endlessly into the future. Among the looming changes I mentioned, as I recall, were the retirement of the massive Baby Boomer generation (retirees drive less), the rising price of gasoline (speaks for itself), and the saturation of automobile ownership in the middle class (when every member of the family drives his or her own car, the rate of automobile ownership levels off).
That was before the Great Recession of 2007-2008, and little did I imagine how soon my prognostications would prove accurate. Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) proceeded to plummet. While proponents of ever-expanding road and highway spending argue that the fall-off is due mainly to the Great Recession and slow recovery and that the growth in travel will resume as the economy regains its old mojo, the evidence is overwhelming that the recession overlays long-term, secular shifts in behavior.
As brilliant as I recall having been at the time, I must confess that I did not fully appreciate the magnitude of the shift. I did not predict the impact of new technology and changing cultural mores upon the habits of the younger generation. As it turns out, the Millennial Generation is leading the national move away from automobile dependence. I have mentioned this trend on Bacon’s Rebellion in recent months, but it is only now that I have discovered a superb report, “Transportation and the New Generation,” by the Frontier Group, that I fully comprehend the magnitude of the change.
From the introduction:
The open road that once beckoned to an earlier generation of young people has been slowly replaced by congested highways traversing a landscape of suburban sprawl. Once a symbol of freedom and America’s can-do spirit, the automobile has become for many a financial straitjacket that limits life options. … The emergence of the Internet, mobile technologies and social networking has upended the way Americans, especially younger Americans, interact with each other and the world.
The Millennial Generation is leading the decline in driving. Between 2001 and 2009, the average VMT for 16- to 34-year-old decreased from 10,300 miles to 7,900 miles per capita — a drop of 23% and more than for older generations. Young drivers took 15% fewer trips and their trips were 6% shorter on average. At the same time, according to federal data, they walked more, biked more and took more mass transit.
The roots of this shift run deep. Historically, the number of cars on the road has increased relentlessly. Since 2006, automobile ownership has plateaued. The trend is especially pronounced among young people. Between 2000 and 2010, the share of 14- to 34-year-olds without a license increased from 21% to 26%.
There are a number of possible explanations. One is that every state in the U.S. but one has enacted Graduate Drivers’ Licensing laws that require young people to take more behind-the-wheel training and fulfill other requirements before being allowed to drive. The process of getting a license is longer and more expensive — up to 60 hours of driving practice with an adult and $600 for driving courses.
At the same time, the advent of GPS-enabled smart phones has made alternatives to automobile ownership more attractive. Real-time data accessible by smart phone eliminates the uncertainty of train and bus arrivals, thereby reducing wait times. Smart phone apps also have enabled car-sharing services such as Zipcar and bike-sharing programs, allowing users to reserve, pay for and locate free cars (or bikes) easily at any time of day.
Meanwhile, the crackdown on texting and talking on cell phones while driving cars makes mass transit a more attractive alternative. Social media junkies can Tweet, text and peruse their Facebook pages while riding a bus a lot more safely than while driving a car. It’s no surprise, then, according to surveys by multiple organizations, today’s young people prefer to live in walkable, transit-oriented communities where automobile ownership is not a prerequisite for going about one’s daily routine.
The counter-argument is that we are experiencing an ephemeral phenomenon. And perhaps we are. Automobile manufacturers see what’s coming, and they are innovating like crazy, converting automobiles into mobile communication and social-media centers. And who knows what will happen when driverless vehicles become a reality, as some think they will by 2025. It is impossible to know how these developments will scramble the demand for different transportation modes.
What we can safely say is this: The transportation sector is undergoing the most rapid and far-reaching transformation since the introduction of the Interstate highway, perhaps since the Model T rolled off the Ford assembly line. All forecasts based upon the extrapolation of past trends are worthless. We really don’t know how it’s all going to shake out.
Whichever way we end up going — more walking, biking, Zipcars and mass transit or more smart roads and driverless cars — it will require a massive shift in infrastructure investment to support it. And that infrastructure will look very different than the kinds of mega-projects that Virginia seems to prone to build. If Virginia is going to spend an extra $800 million a year on transportation projects, let’s make sure we build a system that anticipates tomorrow’s needs, not yesterday’s.
