As Prince William County starts checking on the immigration status of criminal suspects, a team of sociologists and criminologists from Virginia universities will be watching. As reported by the Washington Post, the team will ask, “How does a community change when its police officers start checking citizenship?”
The team will analyze everything from police records to public sentiment. But how do you measure such a policy’s success? If large numbers of illegal immigrants leave the county, were they driven out by police actions, out of fear or because there are fewer jobs in a flagging economy? If reported crime goes down, does it mean that fewer people are breaking the law or that more people are afraid to call authorities?
The academic initiative has the support of local authorities, who want to make sure that police don’t engage in racial profiling of Hispanics and to evaluate whether the program is cost effective. In the background: Municipal officials want to protect the county against discrimination lawsuits. Also, the board learned recently that the cost of the crackdown will be $6.4 million the first year, more than twice as much as earlier estimated.
County Supervisor Martin E. Nohe says the exercise will help ensure that the county’s policy is “legal, just and reasonable. … We had to not just avoid racial profiling. With this new focus on Prince William County, we had to also avoid the perception of racial profiling.”
Without the evaluation, says Chairman Corey A. Stewart, the county would have only anecdotal evidence to judge whether the policy is achieving its purpose, and at what price.
Bacon’s bottom line: This is a great idea. The knowledge that someone will be systematically tracking the data will, in itself, discourage police from engaging in racial profiling. At the same time, the compilation of comprehensive and objective data will make it difficult for partisans on either side of the illegal immigration debate to make sweeping claims based on anecdotes and isolated incidents.
Who knows, this initiative could provide a template for governance elsewhere in Virginia. All too often, elected officials make decisions on the basis of incomplete data. All too often, when it comes time to re-evaluate their decisions, they still have incomplete data. (That’s why I’ve argued so strenuously for a component in Gov. Timothy M. Kaine’s pre-K school initiative to track the impact of the early education on “at risk” children.) I can visualize a future in which state and local governments routinely partner with Virginia universities to measure the results of public policy initiatives.
Imagine that: Basing decisions on hard data, not anecdote and gut instinct! That would be the greatest revolution in Virginia governance since the overthrow of the monarchy!
