What do Virginians think about taxes and transportation? It depends on who you ask — and who’s doing the asking.
The Washington Post thinks Northern Virginians want to raise taxes: “A large majority of Northern Virginia residents want the state to spend more money to fix the region’s roads and rails, and more than three-quarters say they wanted the opportunity to raise local taxes to do it, a new Washington Post poll shows.” Michael Shear reports:
The survey finds deep resentment among the region’s voters toward their government in Richmond, particularly the General Assembly. Only 9 percent of likely Northern Virginia voters polled said they were “very satisfied” that the government is working for the best interests of their part of the commonwealth. Forty-eight percent of those voters said they were dissatisfied, compared with 37 percent in other parts of the state.
At the same time, those likely voters living in the Washington suburbs gave extremely high marks to Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D), despite his having so far failed to make good on his campaign promise to help solve the region’s transportation problems. Almost 80 percent of Northern Virginians approve of the job he is doing as governor, the poll found.
In the poll, 55 percent of the region’s likely voters blamed lawmakers, especially Republicans, for the failed special session last month. Only 11 percent blamed Kaine.
According to Garren Shipley with the Northern Virginia Daily, another recent poll by SurveyUSA found that 87 percent of voters think it is “very” or “somewhat” important to spend more money on the state’s road system. But 65 percent opposed raising license fees for cars, 83 percent opposed raising the gas tax, and 70 percent opposed raising the sales tax on cars and trucks. On the other hand, 58 percent supported taking money from the general fund — just as House Republicans proposed. Does someone smell a disconnect?
Why the huge disparity? Part of the reason is that the Washington Post surveyed Northern Virginia voters, while SurveyUSA polled Virginia voters generally. Northern Virginia voters appear to be more receptive to tax increases than downstaters.
But there may well have been a difference in the questions asked. People tend to be receptive to the idea of tax increases in the abstract, thinking that someone else will pay them. The more specific you get, the more likely people are to oppose them. The Post apparently did not ask citizens what they thought of specific taxes; SurveyUSA did. Additionally, SurveyUSA asked about an alternative funding mechanism for roads — tapping the General Fund surplus. People liked that idea. The Washington Post apparently did not remind Northern Virginians that the state has been running chronic budget surpluses nor that the General Fund alternative was even on the table.
Then, of course, there were the questions that neither poll asked:
– “Should VDOT be reformed before taxes are raised — to ensure that new revenues are not wasted?”
– “Should land use reform be part of any funding package — to ensure that new revenues are not wasted?”
– “Should new revenues for transportation be based on the principle that that those who drive the most should pay the most?”
– “Should any revenue-raising scheme, besides paying for new roads, be structured to encourage drivers to adopt alternative modes of transportation?”
– “Should new construction be paid for with tolls?”
Questions devoid of context or alternatives can lead people to any conclusion you want. If the pollster has unconscious biases, he will skew the findings. If the pollster has overt biases, the results are worthless. I could construct a poll showing that Virginians think the King of Siam would make a better governor than Tim Kaine. But it would be an artificial construct, not a reflection of reality.
Because the Washington Post and SurveyUSA polls reflect the mental constructs of those who fashioned the questions, they aren’t terribly meaningful in plumbing public sentiment.
