Gov. Timothy M. Kaine will roll out his pre-K education program at an education summit today. Instead of making it universal, a proposal that could cost $300 million a year (or way more, depending on whom you believe; see “Universal Pre-K: $300 Million a Year or $850 Million a Year?”), he will settle for an expansion of the Virginia Preschool Initiative, reports Christina Nuckols with the Virginian-Pilot.
Kaine’s revised proposal would increase the number of children from low-income households eligible for the program from 17,500 to 30,000, at a cost of roughly $75 million a year by 2012.
Kaine’s move is a shrewd one. First, by downscaling his plan, the Governor shows that he is cognizant of the budget difficulties Virginia will face in the next two-year budget; $75 million looks like chump change compared to the $300 million that he had been talking about. Second, the money will be concentrated on children — low-income, at risk — whom studies show will get the most benefit from pre-schooling. In other words, he’s focusing funds where he can get the most bang for the buck.
Dueling experts will debate the efficacy of pre-K. Kaine will roll out his experts, including a Nobel prize-winning economist, to argue that the money will be well spent. Opponents will roll out their experts showing that the positive effects last only a few years. In all likelihood, the debate will be inconclusive. The outcome will be decided by politics, not the evidence.
I’d ask only one thing: If the General Assembly passes this legislation, set up a mechanism to track the performance of children enrolled in the program through high school, at the very least. Let’s demonstrate definitively that the program either does or does not generate the positive Return on Investment — higher academic performance, lower drop-out rates, fewer kids convicted of crimes, less welfare dependency, etc. — that proponents claim it will. Let’s not come back in 15 years and have the same debate in the absence of authoritative data to settle it.
