Barton Hinkle has demonstrated once again that he has a keener grasp of the issues than any other newspaper pundit commenting on Virginia transportation. Rather than recycling the same worn-out dogmas, he brings new perspectives to the debate. In yesterday’s edition, he turned outright wonkish: delving into the methodology of how one properly calculates the cost of operating the cost of automobile travel.
At dispute was the question: Which costs more, traveling one mile by car or by train? In a previous column, Hinkle had quoted the Heritage Foundation to the effect that it costs an average of $.21 per mile to operate a car — including the cost of road construction and maintenance. Rail advocates objected, citing AAA figures of $.62 per mile.
I have no idea whose estimate is better, although, I’ll admit, the Heritage number sounds low to me. The point is that Hinkle is asking the right questions. What are the average costs, both private and public, of transporting a person by car and by rail? Currently, lawmakers in Virginia favor pumping billions of state transportation dollars into mass transit without any evidence whatsoever (at least none that has been proffered to the public) that mass transit can move more people for less cost than building roads.
I’m not against mass transit — I’m just against investing in mass transit blindly. The Commonwealth needs to establish objective yardsticks for measuring the cost effectiveness of road vs. rail. Those costs, as Hinkle rightly points out, need to include “externalities” such as pollution and energy security. And they need to recognize, in the context of analyzing specific project alternatives, that average numbers are meaningless. What matters is the cost effectiveness of a specific project under specific circumstances. Finally, I would add, any evaluation needs to consider the extent to which any project is capable of paying its own way, whether through tolls, fares or tax-increment bond financing.
Virginia needs a rigorous methodology grounded in economics and finance to guide its investments in transportation capacity. Without one, the money we spend is steered by politics and power. Hinkle is steering the discussion in a useful direction.
