by James A. Bacon
The Obama administration has signaled its intention to require automobile manufacturers to install technology in cars that would allow them to communicate position, direction and speed to one another. The sensors would alert drivers to impending collisions and, in some systems, would automatically brake to avoid an accident.
I’m not a fan of government mandates — the marketplace would implement this technology on its own — but as far as mandates go, this one at least makes sense. The cost-benefit ratio is very favorable. Reportedly, the technology would cost an estimated $100 to $200 per car. Federal highway safety officials estimate that the technology could prevent up to 80% of accidents not involving drunken drivers or mechanical failure. Eventually, when enough of the new cars are on the road, the savings in automobile insurance premiums should pay for the cost of the technology many times over.
According to yesterday’s Associated Press article, the safety benefits won’t materialize until there is a critical mass of cars and trucks using the technology, and nobody knows that that level is. It will take several years before the regulations are implemented, and many years more before the introduction of new cars into the nation’s automobile fleet allows that critical mass to be reached. However, it’s safe to say that a day will come when all cars on the road have the safety technology.
The article also suggests that it may be possible for cars to communicate with pedestrians and bicyclists using smart phones. More than 4,700 pedestrians were killed by vehicles and 76,000 injured in 2012.
Bacon’s bottom line: Smart cars — cars that communicate with each other, and with highways and traffic lights — represent a big step in the evolution toward driverless cars. The technology is moving with great speed, and public perceptions are lagging far behind. In this instance, federal regulators are actually ahead of the public and they appear to be acting in a positive, forward-looking manner. (To anticipate your next question, no, no one has kidnapped Jim Bacon and replaced him with a liberal-progressive clone.)
We are in the early stages of the most far-teaching transformation in surface transportation technology since the invention of the automobile. Really, we’re talking Automobile 2.0. Driverless cars will re-write the rules for transportation in America, which means it will transform the economic logic of urban design as well. Insofar as driverless cars enable long-distance commutes, they likely will foster the scatteration of population and development. But insofar as driverless technology makes it possible to provide inexpensive taxicab-like services — imagine the convenience of taxicabs without the expense of paying drivers — they could make it easier to adopt a car-free lifestyle. Smart Growthers need to begin imagining the automotive future in store and how it will affect the urban form.
