Allen E. Pisarski
James A. Bacon
Back in October, Northern Virginia commuting guru Alan E. Pisarski updated the Washington Metro board of directors on the latest trends in commuting behavior. He made a number of important points that should temper the agitation of those who believe that Virginia’s under-funded transportation system is doomed to be overwhelmed by increasing levels of traffic.
(The following commentary is based upon data appearing in Pisarski’s PowerPoint presentation, which was shared with me. I did not hear the presentation. The analysis is mine.)
For starters, the national average travel time did not get worse over the past 10 years. Despite significant population growth, the average commute went from 25.5 minutes in 2000 to 25.3 minutes in 2010.That bears repeating: By this basic measure, commuting got no worse. Many people thought it would, but it didn’t.
Furthermore, many of the demographic forces that propelled an increase in the number of Vehicle Miles Traveled in past decades are largely (though not completely) spent:
- Population growth is slowing
- Household formation is slowing
- Labor force growth is slowing
- Migration from state to state is slowing
- Growth in driver’s licenses is saturated
- Growth in car ownership is saturated
I have examine all of these trends before except one — the slowing growth in the labor force. But this is fundamental. As Baby Boomers retires, succeeding generations are barely large enough to replace them. The workforce will continue to grow, but at an exceedingly slow rate. Why does that matter? Because workers account for peak traffic demand when they commute to work.
If we combine these demographic trends with the rising cost of automobile ownership, there is no reason to expect Vehicle Miles Traveled to increase nationally at anywhere near the pace that it has in previous decades. Bottom line: Throw out all national traffic projections based upon the extrapolation of past trends.
Admittedly, metro-level traffic projections are a different story. Population and economic growth in Northern Virginia, in particular, has outpaced the national averages, and it may well continue to do so. But that’s not the sure thing it seemed to be a few years ago. NoVa’s economy grew in tandem with federal spending. At some point, federal spending will level off. It may even decline. Indeed, if you believe my Boomergeddon thesis, it will crash. While it’s possible that NoVa will reinvent itself, as, say Silicon Valley has, there is a degree of uncertainty and risk that did not exist before.
Pisarski presented one other data set that should make Virginia’s policy makers perk up and take notice. Virginians are more likely than commuters in any other state in the country to leave their county of residence to go to work: 51.3% compared to a national average of 27.4%. That’s really extraordinary — and it’s an indictment of our collective failure to build communities with a balance of housing and jobs.
