In my recent column, “The Oregon Solution,” I argued that the gasoline tax is doomed. As consumers shift to hybrid cars, fuel cell-powered cars and electric cars over the next 20 years, gasoline consumption will decline precipitously, and so will the gasoline tax — leaving the state of Virginia (and every other state in the union) looking for other sources of revenue to pay for road maintenance and construction.
The future is closer than I thought. I’d considered fuel-cell cars as the most remote of the alternate power technologies because they would require a parallel hydrogen manufacturing / distribution / retailing infrastructure to be built, posing a Catch 22. Why would anyone want to buy a fuel cell-powered car if hydrogen fuel stations were few and far between? And why would anyone invest in hydrogen fuel stations if there weren’t any fuel cell-powered cars on the road?
Now comes BMW with a vehicle that gets around that problem — a hybrid gasoline/hydrogen car. The”Hydrogen 7″ (displayed to the left) has two separate fuel tanks — one for gasoline and one for hydrogen. According to Business 2.0 magazine, that allows motorists to burn hydrogen when they can access it and gasoline when they can’t. Catch 22 problem solved!
It still will take time for a hydrogen-fuel infrastructure to develop. BMW is manufacturing only 100 Hydrogen 7s this year, and only 25 of those are coming to the United States. But that’s just Year One. Let’s see what Year Two looks like. Meanwhile, General Motors has announced its intention to unveil two fuel-cell vehicles in 2011. Other auto companies will follow.
The auto manufacturers are moving a lot faster than the politicians. The fuel-cell era could be here in a political blink of the eye. And unless Virginia starts thinking about the consequences, our dysfunctional transportation system could start unraveling a lot faster than anyone thinks.
(Thanks to Phil Rodokanakis for pointing me to the Business 2.0 story.)
