COVID-19 Update: Edvard Munch Edition

The latest data from the Virginia Department of Health indicates that Monday saw the biggest single-day increase in the number of new confirmed COVID-19 cases yet in Virginia – 239 cases, bringing the total to 1,250.

The 29 new hospitalizations were the biggest one-day increase yet, bringing the total to 165.

Total deaths increased by two to 27. The number of new tests increased by 1,263 to 13,401 total.

The number of reported new tests has declined three days running from when it peaked at 1,929. Far from administering more tests, Virginia’s hospitals, doctors, and public health authorities appear to be administering fewer. Hopefully, this apparent decline is an artifact of the statistical reporting system, not reflective of real-world shortages in testing equipment or bottlenecks in administering the tests.

Here are John Butcher’s latest calculations of doubling times:

Case count: 3.21 days
Hospitalizations: 3.72 days
Deaths: 2.77 days

And here’s John’s logarithmic-scale showing that confirmed cases, hospitalizations and deaths continue to increase at a geometric rate.