by James A. Bacon
It is axiom of the smart growth movement that, although fear of crime may predominate in the popular mentality, motor vehicle crashes represent every bit as much of a threat to peoples’ safety and well being. Because accidents are more likely to occur in the countryside and the ‘burbs (my term for human settlement patterns that are characterized by segregated land uses, low density and disconnected development), people are arguably less safe than if they lived in urban areas that are traditionally thought to be hotbeds of crime.
Just for yucks, I pulled 2010 data from the Division of Motor Vehicles and the State Police’s “Crime in Virginia 2010” report. Here, for your viewing pleasure, I compare the impact of crashes vs. crime upon public safety.
First, let’s compare the number of incidents involving property loss: motor vehicle crashes on the one hand and robberies, burglaries and stolen property on the other. It’s not even close. Automobile accidents are a much more frequent occurrence. (Click on charts for more legible image.)
Next, let’s take a look at the number of incidents involving bodily harm: the number of people injured in traffic accidents versus the number of people reported as victims of violent crimes (including murder, manslaughter, kidnapping, abduction, sex offenses and assault). In this case, you are more likely to be a victim of a violent crime than to be in injured in a traffic accident. 
However, it is important to note that the vast majority of these offenses consist of “assaults,” and that the overwhelming majority of “assaults” consist of “simple assaults” or threats in which the victim suffers no “obvious severe or aggravated bodily injury involving apparent broken bones, loss of teeth, possible internal injury, severe laceration or loss of consciousness.” I’m not a lawyer, so I may be mistaken about this, but if someone shoves you and you fall over, that’s an assault.
Finally, take a gander at fatal encounters: motor vehicle fatalities versus . homicides and manslaughter. Virginians are twice as likely to die in an automobile accident as to be killed in a crime. Furthermore — and I say this in the belief, perhaps mistaken, that relatively few Bacon’s Rebellion readers are selling crack or operating meth labs, and thus are less likely to consort with people who settle their disputes with guns, knives and blow torches — law-abiding citizens are way more likely to die from being hit by a random car than to be murdered by an anonymous criminal.
So, there you have it. The statistics speak for themselves. If you live in the country or the ‘burbs, you’re not nearly as safe as you think.
Update: Ed Risse reminds me of the detailed work on this subject conducted by Bill Lucy at the University of Virginia. (Heck, I probably blogged about it.) See a summary of his findings here.
