by the staff of Liberty Unyielding
Voting is underway in Virginia’s legislative elections, where early voting started on September 22. To try to win a very close race, progressives are telling Republican voters that the Republican candidate is a Democrat, and the Democratic candidate is a Republican. This is occurring in House District 97, which the Virginia Public Access Project rates as one of Virginia’s most “competitive” legislative districts.
The progressive Policy Information Center sent mail to Republican voters in the district telling them that the Republican incumbent, Karen Greenhalgh, is a Democrat, and that Michael Feggans, the Democratic candidate, is a Republican. Here is an image of the mail that was sent:
The Policy Information Center is a facade for Forward Majority, a progressive PAC that claims that “Our democracy is in crisis” because of a “systematic assault” by the “GOP.”
It is unclear who will control Virginia’s legislature after this fall’s elections. Democrats have about a 50% chance of taking control of the Republican-controlled House of Delegates, and the Republicans have about a one-in-three chance of taking control of the Democratic-controlled state Senate. The Democrats have much more campaign cash than the Republicans.
The legislature will contain more left-wingers after the election than before, even if Democrats don’t pick up any seats. That’s because moderate or mainstream liberal Democrats are being replaced by left-wing Democrats. The state Senate’s two moderate Democrats are both leaving, one because he was defeated by a leftist in a Democratic primary, and the other because he is retiring. A number of mainstream liberals lost Democratic primary races to leftists.
As was pointed out at Hot Air,
In Virginia, the legislature elects the judges, so there will be a judicial bloodbath if the Democrats win control of the legislature. Many moderate and conservative judges will be replaced by progressives. Even some old moderate Democrats who are tough on crime might be replaced.
…Mainstream liberal Democrats are being replaced by left-wing Democrats, due to the 2023 primary results.
In northern Virginia’s Fairfax County, moderate state judges elected with the support of moderate Democrat Chap Petersen and mainstream liberals like George Barker and Richard Saslaw could be replaced by left-wing judges preferred by incoming left-wing state senators like Stella Pekarsky, who ousted Barker in the 2023 Democratic Primary. Senate Majority Leader Richard Saslaw is retiring, and moderate Democrat Chap Petersen was defeated by progressive Saddam Salim in the 2023 primary. Incoming Democrats like Pekarsky are well to the left of the Democrats they are replacing.
Petersen angered progressives by opposing school closings and mask mandates. He also opposed censorship backed by progressives and supported the mainstream liberal Fairfax prosecutor, who was defeated by George Soros-backed Steve Descano. That in turn led to the left-wing Loudoun County prosecutor, Buta Biberaj, donating money to defeat Petersen (Biberaj prosecuted the father whose daughter was raped by the dress-wearing boy in the school bathroom for his angry outburst at a school board meeting, the father just pardoned by Governor Youngkin).
The other moderate Democrat in the state Senate, Lynwood Lewis, is retiring. That leaves mostly left-wing Democrats. Another mainstream liberal in the state senate, Joe Morrissey, also lost a primary race to a candidate further to his left. As the Washington Post reported, “Northern Virginia shifts to the left with Democratic primary victories.” It was a win for the “progressive wing of the party,” who will “stick it to the [Republican] governor as much as possible,” said Mark Rozell, dean of George Mason University’s Schar School of Policy and Government.
By contrast, the Washington Post noted, mainstream conservatives wonin Republican primaries.
One challenge for Republicans is that unlike in most states, Republicans are more geographically concentrated in Virginia than Democrats are. When Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin won the 2021 governor’s race, he carried only 20 of the 40 state senate districts, because his votes were heavily concentrated in rural areas, and he got only half the vote in suburban areas, where all the close legislative elections occur.
Republicans have been growing in strength in rural areas where they already won, while losing strength in suburban areas where swing districts are located. That gives Democrats a slight edge in swing seats. So if Republicans and Democrats each get 50% of the vote, the Democrats will be favored to take control of the legislature. The Republican governor, Glenn Youngkin, is fairly popular, but that hasn’t rubbed off on Republican candidates that much.
State-legislative election analyst Chaz Nuttycombe says that Democrats have a 56% chance of taking control of the House of Delegates, and a 68% chance of keeping control of the state senate. That’s taking into account polling data showing Democrats and Republicans neck-and-neck in statewide party preference polls, and Democrats having a fundraising edge.
Republicans’ chances are better than Nuttycombe predicts, but not by a lot. For example, there is probably a 50% chance the Democrats will take control of the House of Delegates, a 40% chance the Republicans will keep control, and a 10% chance there will be a tie, with each party having 50 seats in the 100-seat House of Delegates.
Republished with permission from the Liberty Unyielding website.