Metro station at Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport
The Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (WMATA) is projecting a decline in ridership of as much as 5% in the next budget year. If Congress fails to extend Stimulus Act subsidies for federal employees, reports the Washington Examiner, ridership could dip another 2.8%.
An WMATA spokesman blames a switch to manually operated trains in the wake of the deadly Fort Totten crash in 2009, which has slowed service. Furthermore, extensive track work has led to delays and closed stations. A maintenance backlog also has resulted in broken or rehabbed escalators. And don’t forget the impact of a fare increase and prolonged unemployment. It all adds up to a projected loss of $12 million in rail revenue — $28 million if the federally funded transit subsidy expires.
In related news, WMATA’s budget forecasts indicate that the opening of Phase 1 of the Rail-to-Dulles project could run three months late, with a start date of Spring 2014, and that ridership will amount to 14.4 million in the first year — down from the official forecast of 15.3 million. So reports the Examiner.
So, how much will Metro rail subsidies cost the commonwealth and its participating jurisdictions? According to Metro’s 2012 Budget Book, in FY 2012, Metro rail will require $149 million in operating subsidies. Virginia jurisdictions’ share will be $37.4 million. Plus, Virginia state and local governments will cough up an extra $110.2 million for capital improvements. (Fairfax County’s contribution should swell when Phase 1 of Rail-to-Dulles comes on line.)
Here’s my worry: Metro Rail is a critical part of the metropolitan Washington transportation infrastructure but it relies heavily upon local government funding to cover operating expenses and capital maintenance. What happens if the federal government actually starts cutting spending (as opposed to pushing spending cuts into the indefinite future), workers get laid off, contracting work dries up and local tax revenues decline? Will the WMATA board curtail capital expenditures to alleviate local governments’ fiscal pain? If so, will maintenance suffer? If it does, will that hurt ridership? Will declining ridership bite into revenues, all in a vicious cycle?
I’m not sure we have a fiscal formula that’s sustainable through the hard times that are bound to come. But we’re doubling down with the commitment to Rail to Dulles. I’m getting the heebie-jeebies just thinking about it.
— JAB
