by D. J. McGuire
Election Day is five months out; early voting begins in a little more than three months. Primary Day isn’t for another week and a half. Still, yours truly is ready to make my first asterisk-heavy prediction on who will win the General Assembly in November. The prediction is based on assumptions driven by current facts. Should those facts change, the assumptions and the prediction change. Hence the asterisk(s). The prediction itself comes from my belief that the assumptions will hold up.
The GOP Case for Optimism
I begin with what happened in 2021 (Republican +7 House of Delegates seats, flipped chamber), and examine the differences from then to now that would impact the 2023 result. For the Republican Party of Virginia, two factors argue for a change in their favor.
First, Glenn Youngkin has gone from largely unknown candidate to minimally successful governor. That change is impactful: no incumbent governor of Virginia has seen their party suffer a genuine mid-term loss in 20 years — and even that — Mark Warner losing a State Senate seat – came as he picked up a few delegates in 2003. To find a governing party suffering serious losses in a Virginia mid-term, you have to go back to 1991.
To some extent, many of Youngkin’s predecessors had the advantage of a politically unpopular foil in the White House. That said, so does Youngkin (538), which is the second factor in the GOP’s favor.
Assuming Youngkin can maintain his approval rating at about 50 percent (probably) and keep his party together (not so likely, see below), he would expect to keep the House of Delegates under GOP control at least. Continue reading
