by Dick Hall-Sizemore
According to the Virginia Political Newsletter, the House Republican caucus has targeted 12 Democratic candidates in the upcoming General Assembly election. Their choices of targets reveal a lot about current Virginia politics.
The targets are:
- HD 21—Josh Thomas
- HD 22—Travis Nembhard
- HD 57—Susanna Gibson
- HD 58—Rodney Willett
- HD 65—Joshua Cole
- HD 71—Jessica Anderson
- HD 82—Kimberly Pope Adams
- HD 84—Nadaruis Clark
- HD 86—Jarris Taylor
- HD 89—Karen Jenkins
- HD 94—Phil Hernandez
- HD 97—Michael Feggans
The Virginia Public Access Project shows that 63 House seats are contested by the major parties. Of those 63, the House Republican caucus has chosen to target only 12. Of those target districts, seven are open seats (21, 22, 57, 65, 84, 89, and 94); an incumbent Republican is running in four (71, 82, 86, and 97); and an incumbent Democrat is running in only one (58). The caucus is putting its advertising dollars into elections for open seats, which is understandable, and defending four new incumbents, first elected in 2020 or 2022. There is only one race with an incumbent Democrat that the caucus is willing to put resources into.
The battles will be in the open seats and in districts with recently elected Delegates who barely had time to get name recognition in their original districts and who are now running in new districts. Those incumbents in both parties with several years of experience who did not get placed in a district with another incumbent or who was the incumbent who chose not to retire can apparently rest easy if the choice of the Republican caucus on how to spend its money is a reliable indication of the competitiveness of the districts.
