Among the more persuasive objections I’ve heard to the Rail-to-Dulles project has come from our blogger friend Too Many Taxes. He has argued that the looping of the heavy rail line through Tysons Corner would be accompanied by such a large increase in development density around the rail stations that, notwithstanding the additional transportation capacity created by the rail line, more commuters would drive into the congested business district than do now, making traffic gridlock even more unbearable.
In support of this proposition, TMT has passed along a document that updates construction cost numbers for road and interchange improvements contemplated in the 1994 Comprehensive Plan for Tysons Corner. Anticipating a density increase around three (now four) Metro stops in Tysons, the plan calculated the road/interchange improvements that would be needed to accommodate the increased density, and without which the rail plan would be counterproductive.
Needless to say, the cost estimates of those improvements are worthless today. Accordingly, explains TMT, at the request of Del. Margaret Vanderhye, D-Fairfax, Virginia Department of Transportation engineers prepared a detailed accounting (click here for details). Some of the projects have been completed, and have been marked as such. Estimates for others — including virtually all of the interchange projects — are impossible to make, due to uncertainties regarding specifics of the project.
Of those projects for which VDOT can make cost estimates, the total cost approaches $580 million. States TMT: “It’s believed the most of this sum is not yet funded, but that could be wrong.”
Where will that money come from? Tax Increment Financing? Impact fees? Higher regional taxes? How much, TMT asks, will come out of the Fairfax County general fund, how much of that would be borrowed, and what would the impact be on the county’s AAA bond rating? These are all valid questions. While a VDOT Land Use Task Force is looking into the TIF option, according to TMT, no one has answers yet for the other questions.
Bacon’s spin: Spending an estimated $5 billion cost of extending Metro rail to Dulles and increasing density around the Tysons Metro stops without providing for anticipated increases in traffic would seem to be an act of monumental stupidity. But finding $1 billion or so for road improvements (depending upon how big those “uncertainties” are) does not strike me as an insurmountable task — as long as the financing mechanism is based on the logic of user-pays. I would wager that the sum could be raised easily through a congestion toll in the Tysons area.
Whatever the ultimate source of financing, we can count on one thing: It will take years to develop a political consensus and gain all necessary approvals. What if the train literally and figuratively leaves the station before these matters are settled?
As long as the Kaine administration is determined to push Rail-to-Dulles forward, it should be fast-laning the road improvements as well. Otherwise, heavy rail could wind up making Tysons even more dysfunctional than it is now.
