If your image of the typical commuter heading north up Interstate in the early morning is of a solo driver, then you think like I do. And the odds are, you don’t commute on I-95. Because if you did, you’d know differently. According to the “2006 Commuter Labor Study: Fredericksburg Region,” here’s how the ridership breaks down for Fredericksburg region commuters who head north on Interstate 95 in the morning:
- Drive alone, 5%
- Car-Van Pool, 22%
- Slug, 27%
- Train, 33%
- Bus, 11%
- Other 3%
I find the drive-alone numbers extraordinarily, even suspiciously, low. But get this — that 2006 study was largely consistent with a Virginia Department of Transportation study showing that about two-thirds of the trips heading north on a Fairfax County portion of the I-95 corridor were made in buses, vans or carpools.
Bob Burke uncovered both of those studies in an article posted today on the Bacon’s Rebellion website, “Life in the Fast Lane.” I had assigned him to investigate what the impact of the planned HOT lanes would be upon mass transit and shared ridership along the I-95 corridor. Hints in our previous coverage of HOT lanes suggested that the commuting population in the I-95 corridor was served by a large number of private vans and buses. Little did I imagine that shared ridership was so prevalent.
The Fluor Transurban HOT lane proposal will divert hundreds of millions in toll revenues over the life of the project to support mass transit and traffic demand management. But it’s hard to imagine how it would be possible to increase the shared-ridership market share above current levels. Even if vans, buses and carpools get to use the HOT lanes for free, it seems inconceivable that solo driving would drop below 5% market share. Indeed, you have to wonder if easing congestion might increase the level of solo driving!
On the encouraging side, though, if the number of people using vans, buses, carpools and rail outnumbers the solo drivers by 92% to 5% along stretches of I-95, the barriers to shared ridership aren’t nearly as high as many of us thought. Nationally, the percentage of people commuting to work alone in their own car runs around 88 percent (see Table 1 on page three). Just imagine the latent capacity that exists in Northern Virginia’s transportation system if I-95 commuting patterns prevailed on Interstate 66, the Dulles Toll Road and the Washington Beltway!
Update: In the comments section, reader Larry Gross says the survey responses do not remotely reflect his observations of solo ridership on I-95 in the Fredericksburg region. He suggests that the survey may have methodological flaws. I would have to agree.
