I never cease to be amazed at the passivity shown by the million-plus citizens of Fairfax County in the face of higher taxes. But as onerous as the tax burden is now, it will, in all likelihood, get even worse.
A couple of straws in the wind… First, this from the Times-Community newspapers:
Fairfax County is anticipating an even tougher 2009 budget year than previously expected, after revised housing market analyses and fiscal forecasts show a potential shortfall of $120 million because of flat revenue growth. …
Long said county planners anticipate a 4-percent drop in value for residential properties and, as better numbers are available, that figure may even worsen. …
To make up the combined county and school deficits – which planners estimate to be around $250 million – an increase of 10 cents would be required on the real estate tax rate.
“I can assure you, we ain’t gonna do that,” board chairman Gerry Connolly told the newspaper. So he says. But the pressure for a combination of spending cuts and higher taxes of lesser magnitude will be intense.
Meanwhile, there’s this news from the Washington Post:
The Fairfax County Board of Supervisors is planning to vote next month on a proposal to raise the tax rate on retail, office and warehouse properties to pay for up to $110 million a year in transportation improvements.
It looks like we have the makings of a perfect storm in commercial real estate. According to the Times-Community acrticle cited above, the commercial real estate sector is way overbuilt. Only 13 percent of the seven million square feet of new office space has been leased. In the Dulles corridor alone, 97 percent of office space under construction has no future occupant. Add to that, the slowdown in federal spending on defense, intelligence and homeland security means businesses won’t be expanding as fast as they have been since 9/11.
A lot of people are feeling a lot of pain. A couple hundred million dollars in higher taxes will only make it only worse.
