Don’t get your hopes up. Yes, it is true that the number of new COVID-19 cases reported by the Virginia Department of Health this morning dropped 40%, but don’t make too much of one day’s results. As the chart above shows, the number of new confirmed coronavirus cases shows considerable volatility.
Confirmed cases vary for reasons that have nothing to do with the actual spread of the virus, such as the number of tests administered, who is administering the tests (hospitals, private labs, others), and the length of time it takes to get results.
Still, it beats a poke in the eye with a sharp stick. And the drop-off does coincide with a smaller number of new hospitalizations — 23o compared to 390 the previous day, so we can hope that the decline was due to more than random volatility..
Another positive sign: the percentage of positive tests also has declined — from 11% today compared to a spike of 21.6% two days ago. At the very least, we can suggest that the spread of the virus is not accelerating. But don’t be shocked if tomorrow’s numbers tell a different story.
Total COVID-19 cases: 2,637, up 230 from the previous day
Total hospitalizations: 431, up 41 from the previous day
Total deaths: 51. (In yesterday’s post I listed the number of deaths as 52. I dare say that the number of deaths has not actually declined. I can conclude only that I made a transcription error yesterday.)
Total tests: 23,637, up 2,085
Percentage tests positive: 11.0%
And here, from the spreadsheet of John Butcher, are the current “doubling” rates for key metrics:
Case count: 3.4 days
Hospitalizations: 3.7 days
Deaths: 4.3 days
John’s calculations show no indication that the rate at which confirmed cases and hospitalizations are doubling, although they do suggest that the doubling of the death rate is slowing down.
— JAB