Bacon's Rebellion

John Behan has already reported that I was scowling during the morning session of the Sorensen Blog Summit. At least I stayed to the bitter end–fellow scowler Norm Leahy left after lunch, missing most of the few minutes of thought-provoking dialog produced.

The Summit really couldn’t make up its mind what it wanted to be–was it a Sorensen good government discussion grafted onto blogging, was it an issues discussion, or was it just about the unique characteristics of blogging? There were aspects of all three, but they were disjointed. I was disappointed at the low level of knowledge about blogging among the agenda speakers and I thought the quality of facilitation during the discussions was uneven.

Still, I’m glad I went and to the extent that it was the first event of its kind hosted by Sorensen, it established a baseline for the future. As always, it was interesting to see the people behind the blogs in person and I finally got to meet my colleague Barnie Day in the flesh. I have to say that the comments I found the most provocative came from those with an “old media” background: Michael Shear of the Washington Post, Bob Gibson of the Daily Progress, and our own Jim Bacon. They grasp both the similarities and the departures between blogging and journalism.

The longest discussion was about regulation and no one seems to want to be regulated any more than campaign finance laws currently mandate. I agree. During another substantive discussion, most bloggers indicated they didn’t even want to adopt voluntary codes of “conduct” or “ethics.” I think blogs adopting some general, voluntary principles would be a good thing.

I picked up some interesting scuttlebutt from The Turnip, a new Virginia blog:

Kaine Campaign Shake-Up Under Consideration?

The Saluda Soothsayer is reporting in their weekend edition that the Tim Kaine for Governor campaign, buoyed by positive coverage of their decision to debate Russ Potts, is actively considering a total change of strategy. An anonymous Kaine operative said a proposal has been presented to “brand” Kaine as the “All Debate, All the Time” candidate.

Under the proposed strategy, Kaine would establish a dawn to dusk debate schedule, eschewing more familiar campaign staples as hand-shaking, baby-kissing, and cow-milking. The Democrat would debate independent Russ Potts and an empty chair representing Jerry Kilgore wherever possible, but would supplement those encounters with face-offs against Pat Robertson, Jerry Falwell, and Ed Matricardi, the candidates many Virginians believe are on the ballot.

Additionally, to answer critics such as feisty blogger Norm Leahy, Kaine will offer to debate William Redpath, Nancy Spannous, and any other former candidate who was shut out of debates. Negotiations are underway with C-SPAN and the Al Gore network to telecast the debates live and rebroadcast them continuously from midnight to 6AM up until election day. There is even a scenario under which Kaine would debate Steven “The Blue Dog” Sisson, but Kaine is said to be balking at taking the concept that far.

According to a staffer who has seen the proposal,

It’s risky, especially on the two days that a rested and prepped Jerry Kilgore is showing up to debate, but I think they’re going to go for it. No candidate has ever been branded like he was a cable network before, but by debating all day, every day, Tim will become the most trusted source of debate in Virginia. He’ll debate, you’ll decide. It’s revolutionary.

Kilgore To Announce Product Tie-In

Jerry Kilgore will announce on a Monday “700 Club” appearance that his entire campaign staff will begin having a Pat Robertson diet shake for lunch every day until election day. The shake will appear in Kilgore campaign materials and supporters will be urged to join Jerry in “shaking up” the gubernatorial race. Prizes will be awarded to campaign donors whose combination of contribution amount and weight loss are the highest. It will be one of the first ever product-candidate commercial tie-ins in Virginia political history.

Asked if the move was an effort to help the beleagured Robertson, under attack for advocating the assassination of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, Kilgore laughed. “I love Pat’s Shake. Always have and always will.”

The Charlottesville Chamber of Commerce asked the gubernatorial candidates to comment on the Chamber’s three top transportation priorities, according to this Daily Progress report.

Jerry Kilgore said he supported two of the projects endorsed by the chamber, but admitted he wasn’t familiar with the third. Tim Kaine didn’t address the three projects directly, but said he’d deal “aggressively” with the transportation “crisis.”

Here’s what straight-talking Russ Potts had to say:

Potts, who labeled Kilgore’s proposal that all transportation funding first be passed by local referendum “disgraceful,” said the state’s transportation “crisis” would require major new sources of state funds.

“It’s going to cost a lot of money to fix this,” Potts said. “This is a heck of a problem.”

As for the three specific local projects, Potts said he intended to leave such decisions to the localities.

“Governor Russ Potts should never tell an area what their transportation priorities are,” Potts said. I’m not going to try to pull the wool over your eyes and tell you I know as much about Hillsdale or Meadowcreek as you.”

Maybe somebody out there can enlighten me, but on the one hand Potts dismisses regional referendums and regional transportation authorities as described by Kilgore, but on the other hand he says localities will decide on their priorities. On still a third hand, he’ll have a special session of the General Assembly that will be devoted to transportation, a seeming move to give Richmond all the authority to decide on projects. For a man who’s rallying cry is “everything will be on the table,” he sure seems to snatch things off the table–or can some things be on the table only if they’re on his terms?

I’m waiting to see his post-Labor Day transportation plan. What I hear right now seems contradictory.

My first reaction upon reading the latest Kilgore campaign attack on Tim Kaine was disgust. Just how stupid do those guys think we voters are? Then, after referring to the Kaine campaign website, I concluded that contempt for the truth — and the voters’ intelligence — may be universal. Here are the facts. You decide for yourself.

Kilgore held a press conference yesterday with former Richmond Mayor and Congressman Tom Bliley and blasted Kaine for his “dismal track record” as mayor. Among the failings the Kilgore campaign pins on Kaine: Deteriorating student-teacher ratios in city schools, rising drop-out rates, low student achievement, a 47.5 percent increase in unemployment, and higher taxes. (See the press release.)

As a campaign gimmick, this may be effective. If the charges are mindlessly repeated in the press in the usual he said/she said format of campaign coverage, and if the voters are as ignorant as the Kilgorites seem to assume they are, the charges just may stick. Here’s the problem: Four of the five of Kilgore’s points are totally bogus.

Tim Kaine was elected as one of seven city council persons. Chosen by his peers as mayor, he was simply a first among equals who chaired city council meetings and fulfilled ceremonial duties. Kaine enjoyed no executive power. Furthermore, the city school board, not Tim Kaine, ran the Richmond city schools. School systems enjoy extraordinary autonomy in Virginia. To blame Kaine for the problems of Richmond city schools — problems that he had no power to influence — is ridiculous. Similarly, to blame Tim Kaine for an uptick in unemployment is nonsensical as well. Unemployment in the city reflects the strength of the national, state and regional economy, which are matters beyond the mayor’s control.

The one legitimate charge is taxes. As mayor, Kaine could influence the city’s budgetary choices and its tax rate. The city’s tax take did increase during his tenure, and he is legitimately vulnerable to criticism on this front. If the Kilgore campaign wants to display some intellectual integrity, that’s what it should focus on. Leave the rest alone.

As contemptible as the Kilgore attacks are, the Kaine campaign invited them by grotesquely inflating Kaine’s record of achievement. Read this passage in Kaine’s campaign biography: “Tim Kaine improved the city’s business climate, cutting taxes such as the property tax and the business license fee. Over 76,000 jobs were created in the metro Richmond area. To enhance public education, he built the city’s first new schools in a generation…” Yadda, yadda, yadda.

Those puffed-up claims are just as irresponsible as Kilgore’s attacks. Yes, Kaine cut the property tax rate, but rising property values drove up the total tax burden. As for claiming credit for 76,000 jobs in “metro Richmond” — including Henrico, Chesterfield and Hanover counties — that’s downright laughable. And if Kaine wants to hog credit for building new schools, then he needs to take responsibility for the rest of the Richmond school system.

I really shouldn’t be reading this garbage before breakfast. It ruins my appetite.

On the heels of Phil’s provocative post about the 2004 tax increase issue, Michael Shear of the Washington Post has his analysis of how it is being played by the Tim Kaine and Jerry Kilgore campaigns.

For Kaine:

Education is consistently the top issue on people’s minds in Virginia, polls suggest. Kaine’s aides think his support of the tax increases will translate in people’s mind to support for education. Kilgore’s opposition to the tax increases, they hope, will translate into a disdain for schools.

For Kilgore:

There has not been a concerted effort by anyone to stir up opposition to the tax increases since they took effect. If past is prologue, the talented Kilgore campaign machine could be very effective at doing so.

It’s a balanced piece, except for not mentioning Russ Potts. Sometimes, good copy is hard to find.

Among the nuggets hidden in William Leighty’s recitation of the Warner administration’s government reforms (See “A Record of Reform” in the current issue of the Bacon’s Rebellion e-zine) is this:

Fiscal Year 2005 savings are estimated at $23.4 million, with cost avoidance estimated at $1.5 million for FY 05. By the end of this decade, we expect to see $138.3 million in outright savings and almost $5 million in cost avoidance.

We have been tracking VITA on this blog for some time. These are the first concrete numbers I’ve seen regarding how much money the agency is saving. Although $23 million in the fiscal year past seems modest, efficiencies amounting to nearly $140 million by the end of the decade are not to be sneezed at. If these numbers pan out, one would have to classify VITA as a success.

I realize there are a lot of VITA skeptics out there, and I also know that “cost savings” numbers can be mushy. Further, I would like to know how these cost savings can be reconciled with the push earlier this year to charge state agencies higher fees for VITA services (only to be made unnecessary, apparently, by some budgetary maneuver that I haven’t seen fully explained). Can anyone shed some light?

I was beginning to wonder whether I was following in the footsteps of the Greek philosopher Diogenes, who was known for walking in broad daylight holding a lantern looking for an honest man. I’m referring, of course, to the apparent unwillingness of the members of the General Assembly to point out that Gov. Warner has been less than forthcoming—some would say that he lied—in the budget projections he used in 2004 to justify the largest tax increase in the history of Virginia. (See “Republican Mutes.”)

Given the size of the budget surplus, we now can all agree that the tax increase was totally unnecessary. So either Gov. Warner falsified his budget projections or he is plainly incompetent, a rather unlikely possibility given his many successes in the business world.

Finally, Del. Jeff Frederick, R-Woodbridge, has spoken out. In a letter published in today’s OpEd section of the Washington Times, “Warner Shortchanging Virginians” the good delegate says it like it is:

“He [Warner] had to cry wolf saying we were in a fiscal crisis, and in order to do so, had to make sure that economic figures didn’t undermine his position. So, he either kept the good news of massive surpluses from all of us, or proved to be outright incompetent when it comes to budget forecasting. For a guy who personally made millions in private business, I just can’t see Mr. Warner messing up this bad without it being on purpose.”

I sure hope that other members in the General Assembly would have the integrity to tell their constituents that Warner lied and that the tax increase was totally unnecessary. What a refreshing breath of fresh air that would be instead of the customary obfuscations, falsehoods, and political spin we have come to expect from Richmond.

Tyler Whitley of the Richmond Times-Dispatch informs that Tim Kaine will be debating Russ Potts twice next month, including an event after Kaine debates Jerry Kilgore in front of the Fairfax Chamber of Commerce.

I’m fascinated by the political calculations being made by the Kaine campaign.

Is this a mutually beneficial plan by the two candidates to rough up Kilgore? Rumors of collusion between Kaine and Potts have always been below the surface.

Has Kaine concluded that he must raise Potts’ profile and get him into the televised debate because Potts drains votes from Kilgore?

Or, has Kaine decided that he has to take Potts out now because a surge by Potts will come from Kaine’s column?

Any and all speculation or inside information in the comments will be welcomed.

Updates: Commonwealth Conservative has some theories on the Kaine-Potts debate. Norm reviews the issue and this BR discussion. Poli Amateur smells a “gentleman’s agreement” between Kaine and Potts.

My apologies if this item has appeared in the newspaper already, but I picked it up from a United Steel Workers press release this evening and thought it was worth passing along:

Several unions, led by a United Steelworkers delegation, demonstrated their deep displeasure with Democrats in the U.S. House of Representatives who voted for the Central American Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA), by walking out of the Virginia AFL-CIO convention over the weekend when Rep. Jim Moran was introduced.

Moran, one of 15 Democrats who voted for CAFTA last month, had been invited to address the convention. The Steelworkers were joined in their action by delegates from the Communications Workers and United Autoworkers unions. The unions claim that CAFTA would lead to the loss of 100,000 U.S. jobs.

“I think it would be a real mistake for Rep. Moran to believe that we are not going to hold him accountable here in Virginia,” said Alton Glass, President of USW Local 8888, whose membership of nearly 8,000 workers is the largest in the Commonwealth. “He has a responsibility to his district and all Virginians. Instead he let us all down by voting for a lousy trade deal that will cost us even more jobs.”

Very few of the USW’s members, however, reside in Moran’s Northern Virginia district, I’d wager. But many IT companies and service companies in Moran’s district benefit from the toppling of trade barriers. I suspect that Moran understands his constituency very well. Knowing the Congressman’s feisty temperament, I would be surprised if the snub did anything more than tick him off.

Yesterday Snoopy urged Richmonders to turn out today at a rally designed to show visiting NASCAR executives that Richmond should be the site for their Hall of Fame.

From televised news reports, it appears that lots of fans were on hand to show their support.

I was surprised that state employees did not receive an email from Governor Warner inviting them to come out and swell the crowd on the Capitol grounds. That my economic development organization totally ignored the rally was also surprising. Lest anyone think a NASCAR rally might not be an appropriate use of state time, employees have previously been invited to a memorial service for London victims and to take a walk with Governor Warner after a “be healthy” rally, among other things. What could be more important to Virginia on an August afternoon than landing one of the more attractive economic develoment projects to come along in years?

The Virginia Retirement System earned a 12 percent return on investment in fiscal 2005, bringing its total assets to $44 billion. Each of the fund’s asset classes had a positive return. Real estate led the way at 24.4 percent return, closely followed by private equity at 21.5 percent. The portfolio performance represents a big improvement over the 3.0 percent annualized return over the past five years.

According to a VRS press release, a total payment of $1.1 million will be provided to 24 investment professionals, according to their contribution to fund performance. The payment represents a small fraction of the value added to the fund resulting from the staff’s investment decisions, noted Chairman Paul W. Timmreck. Of that amount, $292,000 will be placed in a deferred compensation account for senior investment professionals and used as a retention tool.

I hope no one begrudges the rewarding of VRS employees. State employees should be rewarded for superior performance.

West Point, a paper mill town in Virginia’s Tidewater, has achieved quite a distinction: Its school system had the highest percentage of students passing at least two of the three Standards of Learning tests this year: 95 percent passed the English tests, 95 percent passed science, and 94 percent passed math. It wasn’t a one-year fluke: West Point scored tops last year, too.

Located in King William County, West Point is not an elitest, white suburban enclave. Three thousand of the county’s 13,000 residents (2000 Census) are black. The county’s per capita income of $22,000 (1999) was 30th from the top, not bad, but not what you’d call affluent either. (I can’t find the K-12 budget numbers because the Department of Education server seems to be down, but I’m willing to bet that King William isn’t throwing extravagant sums of money at its schools. Interestingly, one fifth of West Point’s students live outside the town, often in neighboring counties, and pay a tuition of $2,250 to attend — not exactly a king’ s ransom.)

So, what’s the secret?

According to the Richmond Times-Dispatch, School Board member Larry Dillon attributes the school system’s success to “a culture that focuses on the basics.” Said Dillon: “You set the tone at an early age, and by the time they get to high school, the high expectations are embedded in them.” No whining. No excuses. No finger pointing and evading responsibility. Just setting high expectations and sticking to the basics.

I’ve just read William Leighty’s recitation of the Warner Administration’s accomplishments in today’s Bacon’s Rebellion e-zine.

The list is long and there are impressive, undeniable accomplishments. As a cog in the state government machine, I might quibble with a few things on the list from my perspective, but by and large the results are real.

What I would say is that as a state employee, I never got the impression that this statement was anything other than a one-time, quick Administration initiative: “We forced agencies to re-examine longstanding practices and explore opportunities to bring business principles to state government.” Maybe it’s just the agency I work for, but I felt that anything I did, or anything anyone other than the Director did along those lines was not welcomed.

If you look at the accomplishments, most seem to carry a 2002 or 2003 date. The Administration started out like gangbusters and then seemed to ease up. Maybe that’s a downside of a term-limited governor. Maybe it’s the downside of a governor becoming a national figure. I noticed it in the previous administration. I don’t think it’s just a coincidence that the mini-scandals of DGIF et. al. occurred late in the Administration.

My point is that a new governor can build on these accomplishments and find lots more to reform, re-engineer, and re-vitalize. He can accomplish plenty throughout his administration if he really keeps his eye on the ball or is willing to delegate the power to spur agencies to higher performance to someone with clout.

An early congratulations to the Warner Administration for showing that reform is possible and for making significant contributions to good governance.

The Aug. 23, 2005, edition of Bacon’s Rebellion is now online.

Norm over at One Man’s Trash already has his incisive take on the Tyler Whitley, front page Russ Potts story in today’s Richmond Times-Dispatch.

I’d just like to expand on one point Norm made. Russ Potts wants into the debates. There are many positive, persuasive reasons he could give. But the “straight-talking independent” can’t resist casting his current exclusion only in terms of Jerry Kilgore’s perfidy: “I’m terribly disgusted with him for his gutless, spineless actions on the debates.”

Nice talk. Negative campaigning and name-calling usually get critical press, but Potts gets a pass.